Member Info for investor33

Fair enough abzzba. It could easily all come good finally this year - at least one decent farm out, plus hopefully revenue at last from Sunsteppe. I generally don't complain, but now and again all those years of patiently waiting and waiting does take its toll.....I drip fed in over a number of years, however the raises just kept getting lower and lower during that time. And the last one was just ridiculous - like getting finance from a pay day lender.

And frankly those Progressive December 2024 figures to make me a tad annoyed - 1.5 years on, we are producing around 8% of the lower figure for the projected bopd to be achieved " within a couple of years " and about 5% of the higher figure which was stated.

Abzzba ; frankly I feel that those of us who started investing 6 or 7 years ago now with MATD have shown the patience of a saint. There comes a limit to patience however....

To be honest, I don't quite understand how a proposal could have been submitted by the leading counterparty quite a bit earlier in the year, and then weeks later they are suddenly reanalysing the seismics . Wouldn't they have done all this before submitting a proposal in the first place as part of their basic due diligence ?

From the December 2024 Progressive report ;

" Over the course of 2025, Petro Matad will look to drill further production wells with the ambition of achieving a field production of 3,000-5,000 bbl/day within a couple of years. "

1.5 years on from this statement we are producing about 8% of the lower figure of 3,000 bpd.

Proquo ; my focus is really on a farm out, as I still feel that this is the realistic way for everything to accelerate.

I messaged the company a week or so ago asking whether they can reveal when this main counterparty first started reanalysing the seismic data - but no response from them so far. I would really like to have a rough idea of when this process was started - was it say a month ago, six weeks ago or two months ago now ? Two weeks have elapsed since the AGM, and us being informed about this delay whilst the leading counterparty looks hard again at the data. I just want some idea of what the timescale has been so far. At one point MB seemed to express a bit of exasperation about how long the counterparty is taking to decide on what they want to do.

An announcement that a farm out has been agreed on decent terms, and most of the past frustrations will suddenly melt away.

From the December 2024 Progressive report ;

" Over the course of 2025, Petro Matad will look to drill further production wells with the ambition of achieving a field production of 3,000-5,000 bbl/day within a couple of years.

This well programme will very much be dependent on the analysis of the well data during the winter shutdown. If management finds that it can achieve 30% recovery, then it is believed that the Heron field could reach peak production of 9,000 bbl/day. "

Sorry about that - I have a tendency to jumble up numbers when I write about years for some reason. Lol.

2024 not 2014.

Proquo ; I seem to remember some kind of interview with MB in 2014 in which it was stated that the aim was to do six plus wells every year after production started. In reality it has been one well per annum.

I don't know how back then they thought they could finance say 10 drills @ 1.5m each with say a 60% success rate, and then another 2.5m to complete the 6 successful drills, but anyway.

There has been too much over promising in the past, and that needs to change.

Presumably you will get a massive short squeeze in the oil derivatives market once the physical inventory is exhausted. All those traders who bet heavily on a resolution to the conflict through shorting with derivative contracts will have to buy back to exit their contracts in a great hurry, or suffer huge losses. So you could get a monumental and very sudden short squeeze.

"Despite a historic physical supply deficit caused by the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the futures market (paper oil) has remained artificially suppressed. This lag is driven by speculative traders heavily shorting futures contracts on premature hopes of a ceasefire and a quick U.S.-Iran diplomatic resolution. However, physical inventory cushions are almost completely exhausted, setting up a massive looming correction. "

"The oil market is divided primarily into two distinct tiers:

The Futures & Derivatives Market: Traded heavily on exchanges like the CME Group (trading NYMEX WTI crude) and the ICE (trading Brent crude). These contracts allow producers to hedge prices and speculators to bet on market movements. Less than 1% to 3% of these contracts ever result in actual physical delivery; the rest are closed out or rolled over for cash settlement before expiration.

The Physical Market: Refers to the actual physical buying and selling of real crude oil between producers, refiners, and traders. While it accounts for a tiny fraction of total financial trading volume, it directly influences the benchmark prices set in the futures markets."

"In the global petroleum market, the vast majority of oil traded (over 90%) is "paper" oil—primarily via futures contracts and derivatives—rather than physical barrels. The total volume of futures contracts traded daily can be 10 to 30 times greater than the physical world's actual daily oil production and consumption. "

Interesting the disconnect between oil future contract prices and the physical reality of what is happening. A reckoning may come soon ;

https://www.tradingview.com/news/invezz:2fd650d8e094b:0-brent-may-surge-to-150-as-inventories-collapse-hormuz-stays-shut/

As far as I'm concerned, PC have always paid in the past, albeit always massively late. Even the 30% issue was eventually resolved and paid about about 15 or 16 months after production first started. Hence, I've no doubt that the contract will be signed, and that they will pay up. However, for 2027 until the refinery comes online, I think that the company needs to use the oil traders that they have been in touch with - it's a pretty well nailed on cert that in 2027 the same kind of thing will happen for a third year running. I'm wondering whether they are simply trying to maximise the storage charges through sharp practice.

A key point to remember is that the Mongolian government is also owed money by PC through the profit sharing contract -I'm actually quite surprised that the government seemingly hasn't stepped in by now and read the riot act to PC.

I just pray that a farm out or buy out doesn't involve PC, as they are a real nightmare.

BP ; " won't the price be set at the time of delivery not the time of payment? "

So logically why did MB talk about them being relaxed about the payment timescale, due to the company benefitting from the uplift in the oil price since the start of the year ? Doh....

It's a question which I wish had been asked during the AGM.

I sent an email late last week asking, among other things, whether they are allowed to tell us when the counterparty first started reprocessing the data. It would be interesting to know roughly how much time has elapsed since this entity first started this process, or at least when MATD were first informed about this. 10 days have already elapsed since we were told about this during the AGM.

Not too bad thanks Proquo. We've had so much rain in the UK in the last week or so though. Hope it's been a bit better over in France...

Well said Proquo.