The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Growmorecash : which part of ;
" At a meeting of the Matad Citizens' Representatives Committee at the end of February the Company's application for land use in 2024 was approved" don't you understand ?
Reading it again, it doesn't sound as though the governor has a leg to stand on regarding this land overlap issue- and that's on two counts ;
1) State Special Purpose Designation status overrides designation of provincial "protected areas. "
2) The Block XX PSC was signed in 2006, and the ' protected area ' was not designated as such until 2014.
Either way, the governor doesn't have a leg to stand on, and land usage has been approved by the District authorities. That governor is a total idiot.
So no doubt in my mind that operations will be going ahead when the weather permits.
Growmorecash : read it again ;
" the company has engaged with the District authorities to secure local level approval of LAND USAGE.'
Which part of LAND USAGE don't you understand ?
Just to correct my last post - they have secured local level land usage, however the governor is still holding back on signing the tripartite special purpose document. He has been a total t**t throughout all this.
Anyway, we are in a far better position than was apparent before this RNS - the land usage approval is a massive step forward.
There's only one place that this governor needs to be - and that's in a Mongolian prison for a long stretch. He's totally corrupt. Hopefully once MATD have the LP they can sue him.
That's why I was cautious about the statement in the last RNS ; " the governor has said that he will sign..." I wanted to know whether this was verbal or written, and whether this intent was expressed in a meeting with government officials present.
FeverTree : I looked through the GCM board, and indeed WOS has posted quite a bit on there. As you say, his style of writing is different, and he doesn't give the impression that he's from the far East as he does on here. None of the ' be happy ' or ' sir ' usage either. He writes on GCM far more like a European, albeit with the poor spelling and grammar. He still uses his rocket emojis mind you.
That's why I wish that they had stated in the last RNS exactly how the Dornod guv had committed to sign Aeschylus. For me it was too vague to just say " he has said that he will sign ...." Was this pledge to sign made during a telephone conversation/ Zoom call or was it stated in writing ? How many parties were witness to what he said if it was verbal, and was it said in an official meeting with government officials etc ?
These details really matter in term of knowing how locked in without any wriggle room the governor is to the commitment to sign which was mentioned in the last RNS. Like you, I believe that his part is the biggest uncertainty - everything else is a matter of time. Hopefully he doesn't want to be sued by a second company though.
@Aeschylus : Well I guess that would be the worst case scenario, and would prove again how Mongolian governance and its sclerotic ex-Soviet bureaucracy is not fit for purpose, so therefore foreign companies and investors should steer clear of the place....
Professional : Assuming that some of the 4 items mentioned in the last RNS have been completed, but let's say not all of them, then they may release an RNS outlining what has so far been achieved, and then making positive noises that the other stages are imminent etc. That would be better than keeping everyone completely in the dark and then trying to do a raise.
Professional : They have form for bringing out the good news followed immediately by the bad news. So when the exploitation licence was granted a raise was announced straight afterwards on the back of the price spike to about 8p. And when the special purpose designation was granted they announced the Velo duster straight afterwards.
I suspect that something similar will happen if the next RNS is positive, with the likes of Hamm bouncing around shouting " buy now guys before you miss out - this is a definite multi-bagger from now on. Last chance at this price..."
WOS - do you think that the DQE agreement completely excludes the likelihood of another raise if a positive RNS is shortly released ? I would like your opinion. I know MATD stated that they had enough funds to last until July. Surely though, even with a DQE agreement they will still need some funds themselves to help roll out a drilling programme ? Or would they ?
From what I remember, we never had definite confirmation that DQE had actually signed the contract - wasn't it just with DQE, and awaiting to be approved last time we heard ? Do MATD need the LP in order for this agreement to be concluded ? Or was there another update which I missed ?
Roxy2020 - Agreed. There is no comparison really, and AIM is in comparison with other indices is quite speculative. At one point it looked as though RR might go bust when all the planes were grounded during Covid - so some might have thought it was a punt at the time when it was about 40p.
Master82 : Or what about Rolls Royce when it was about 40p in late 2020 ? In which case no need to worry about crazy Mongolian bureaucracy or the daft land laws....
Doc83 - It's certainly not a comfortable situation for LTHs. Especially as many could probably have exited at around the 4p level without loss just a few weeks ago.
As for me - I intend to sell off a large chunk if there is another spike to 7 to 10p on good news with the RNS. Of course the likes of Hamm will be screaming ' jump in guys - it's a definite multi bagger. No risk. ' I think that it would spike sharply on positive news, but then pull back sharply again - as it has done every other time.
Also, as happened when there was a big spike on the RNS announcing the exploitation licence, I suspect that a sudden spike caused by the next RNS might be promptly followed by news of another raise. It may be too good an opportunity for MB to miss. So it's best to take a large chunk out before that happens - a spike gives an opportunity to at least partly exit, and minimise future risk. It also leaves open the possibility of buying in later during the raise.
What's going on with the price action right now is quite normal - a fall to the 2p to 3p mark which often happens between RNS releases. Look back on a chart all the way back to 2014, and you will see that this has always pretty much been the norm.
People who are screaming blue murder have probably never looked at a MATD chart, and anyway have little to no idea of what really drives these types of penny shares.
If we get a positive RNS, and then the price spikes up sharply and then also pulls back quite sharply straight soon afterwards with a sudden flood of supply as previous weak holders exit, and as the trading desks offload their shares en masse, then expect comments on here such as ; " how can this be happening ? " " it's MB's fault, as he didn't word the RNS very well ' etc etc....
Hamm : Why so anxious ?
After all, a few weeks ago you were telling everybody to buy, buy, buy at around 4P, as according to you ' there is no risk.'
I noticed on ADVFN that when the price was around 4p someone was advising people to 'buy now, as it is bound to rise to at least 7p from this point on...'
The moral for people is to not listen to what anybody advises you to do on these types of boards, as they may be clueless, or else they might have a hidden agenda.
Hamm : "At this price you would think we should have had millions of buys by big boys! "
Because you haven't understood that so far this is a penny share trading stock only. Until it produces income it will continue to be. Just the other day I was listening to a highly experienced and successful American day trader - who routinely makes 10 to 20,000 Dollars a day when day trading - say in a tutorial clip that he doesn't trade US penny shares, as they are too volatile, and some are set up deliberately as ' pump and dump ' traps for the unwary.
Since the last RNS there has been no volume, which means that there is no interest. Volume = activity. People will only jump in when they see that MATD is a big % gainer on the day - which means that volume ( or activity ) is high.
Penny stocks don't move unless there is decent volume - and without any news the MMs can take the price down at will to previous support levels on very low volume. Support was 2.8p or 3p. That's what's happened since the last RNS.
Laguelle : So if it's all such a waste of time, and the problems are intractable, what exactly are you doing on here ? I presume you just enjoy the feeling of schadenfreude ?
I remember people at the time saying that the exploitation licence would not be granted - it was after lengthy delays.
I remember people saying that the special purpose designation would not be granted - it was.
This will be the same - as per the RNS, the governor his already stated that he will sign, and the other 3 items mentioned in the RNS are down to central government admin processes - and clearly they have already demonstrated that they are supportive of MATD. Clearly the special purpose designation wouldn't have happened if they aren't.
There was a gap of one week short of 3 months between the last two RNS releases, so with 2 months and one week since the last Dec RNS, is there really such a delay given that there were 4 items stated in the last RNS which needed to be completed ? ( not just the governor's signature ) Just over 2 months in Mongolian terms is not a very long time to complete 4 separate administrative procedures via their sclerotic ex-Soviet bureaucratic processes...
With very low volume since the last RNS, the MMs have taken the price down to previous support levels, as low volume = low interest. Interest and volume will only suddenly pick up on news.
Having said that, I would have preferred it if MATD had stated clearly how the governor had stated his willingness to sign. Was it a verbal pledge, or was it a pledge stated clearly in writing somewhere ? There's a big difference in terms of legal force one would assume.
Doc 83 : "If there is a positive or negative RNS, for example, the signature or a cash raise, the SP will shoot wildly in one direction or the other."
Yes - but that's only half the story. If you were looking at charts then you would see how pronounced the spikes have been after an RNS. Yes, the price can shoot up in a day back to let's say 8 or 10p, but then in the next few days it can come back down again to say 4p. Have you never asked yourself why this happens time and time again ?
I read the comments every day of people day trade small cap Nasdaq tech stocks, and every day there are huge % movers upwards on ' news ' which they trade to surf the wave - but often the price then jack-knifes down just as suddenly on a flood of supply as people exit. Each day there are a number of Nasdaq stocks which do this, and always on ' news. ' The day traders are using their scanners every morning without fail for big % gainers on high volume, and are making their scalp trades off the back of it. Then the next day they move on to the next % gainers on ' news...' They don't really care what the company does - only that there is a new release on that day which creates high volume.