Member Info for IntrepidInvestor

Hi yakya
As you’ve asked; I think you need to stop ‘trading’ and start ‘investing’. Buy NCYT and lock it away for 2 years. Don’t look at the short term movements unless you have spare cash to buy on the dips.

Kindest regards
Intrepid.

Hi all.
Can anyone suggest why a couple of my posts last night have been deleted?

Specifically one where I suggest NIN must be working for hedgies.

Cheers
Intrepid.

Agreed Bramley1967
And likely fast-tracking of clearance for all and any options waiting im the wings (multiplex et al).
November looks like will be defining time for NCYT and others.
I’ve a table booked at our local Thai and am sitting waiting for BoJo. He’s clearly got dissenters in the cabinet to quell and a message to fine-tune; not least of which is ‘what’s the financial support this time?’
All the best
Intrepid.

hi all,
these blighters are a bit sticky. Managed to buy some at 1.27p at the beginning of the week, otherwise nothing.
all the best
intrepid

Quite, troublesome.
Which is why experienced investors buy the dips and inexperienced ones sell into them.
Simple rule: If that facts haven’t changed, don’t change your position.
All the best
Intrepid.

Hi Tomozulu

I agree that a takeover is very likely. In this sort of stock, it is always possible. It’s one of the ‘risks’ insomuch that the danger is the takeover removes a large percentage of the latter-stage growth from existing SHs to in favour of the new owners. This matters because of the effects of ‘compounding interest’; if, say, the takeover is at an SP of £40, but the true value reaches £200 with 3 years, then LTHs (those in from sub £1) lose C 80% of the overall potential gains. They think they did well with c. 4000% + increases, but could have gained c. 20,000%. Means the difference between 6 figure or 7 figure gains.
The thing going in our favour is already-established strong positive cash flows (we won’t need the extra financial muscle) and no one big founder/shareholder (who can simply agree a deal and drag the rest of us along).
Let’s hope an offer does NOT materialise soon; given the antics of the last few days, I think we have far to many inexperienced SHs in our midst who would see it as a result to accept £40 now instead of £200 in 3 years.
I am serious about these ballpark figures, btw. They are now eminently achievable given Covid is here to stay over that period.
All the best
Intrepid.

hey Wilson63
that sort of work is well respected as many do need guidance in volatile times. I try to do my bit as well. I won't do it in the early days as there was nothing to 'underpin' the SP but now, well................
cheers
intrepid

hi Capt_Hindsight,

better than a poke in the eye with a flying brick.

I've mentally decided to buy on all dips so need to keep back enough cash and time the purchases.

cheers
intrepid

Hi try2buylow,

I think you are quite accurate. essentially, the issue with NCYT is the quickness of the rise and the quickness and size of confirmed orders. These have yet to turn into black ink on the balance sheet, but will do so in due course (account being naturally historical docs). Once that happens, the bottom to the price will be fixed (much higher than range we are in now). Until then, there is a very low theoretical low; seems 800p is about it.

It would be nice to hear of more order confirmations and, at some point the BoD will have to issue a trading update if it appears the market is out of kilter. Given the SP rise, that would have to be a rampant trading update to have left the market behind (or, conversely, a terrible update to warn the market - that's seems near impossible to me). If we get no update, it would suggest the SP is in an appropriate 'range'.

Finally, lets hope the Co purchased some of it's own shares at these recent lower levels. getting rid of a couple of million shares would be nice. it would show ability to spend that amount of cash (£16m-£18m) without concern. It would be a smart move IMO.

all the best

intrepid

Hi all.
Did anyone buy any this morning? I had set my next level at 750p so missed out.

I’ve a feeling that today’s low might be the end of it. Even the market malaise seems overdone now. Plenty of institutions have been holding high % cash levels over the last few weeks so will undoubtedly step in at some point. But it’s immaterial to NCYT SP as this is the premier-designed (soz!) pandemic stock. The longer this miserable situation remains, the stronger their cash flow and the higher their eventual valuation.
If you are feeling nervous, stop watching the SP and come back next year.
All the best
Intrepid

I love it. Because I can’t honestly say ‘buy’ at these SPs I am a de-ramper.

But if I say ‘fill ya boots’ I am them a ramper

What’s that about? It’s just a couple of words thrown about by inexperienced day traders who are fearing loss and attack every comment that is the wrong side of their own trade.

Let’s see how today goes. But one piece of advice to newbies/inexperienced; don’t block anyone who seems to call it correct, even or especially if they are contrary to your own view.

Cheers
Intrepid.

Shame Robertsmith.
It’s that dialogue that helps us all. I am as likely to be right or wrong as the next person. I want to listen to others to judge things and think it’s appropriate they do the same.

Because I don’t agree with you is precisely why I am genuinely interested in your constructive thoughts.

Btw, I still hold, but sold recently to de-risk. Now am in for free and may top up if this goes low enough. That’s not ‘de-ramping’, it’s simply a view on the current SP on fundamentals and perceived ‘progress’.

You know, the worst aspect of the RNS was the admitted increases in production capacity; I don’t think they are very ‘ambitious’ so I now question why? Surely, being able to only produce a few hundred thousand a week is going to disappoint, given the PE? Anyone here willing to run the numbers?
Cheers
Intrepid.

Hi fission.

Same comment to you; where’s your argument for the PE to remain at this level?

Your anger towards me can only come from your psyche dealing with its realisation it/you could be on the wrong side of this trade. Rather than rebuke yourself, you want to lash out at those highlighting that conflict in you.

Good luck with it. Who knows, we might see these jump up today, now the anticipated RNS has landed. What price will you pay?

Cheers
Intrepid.

Hi RobertSmifh.

That’s pleasant of you. Why should you be vile towards me? This is a BB. It’s here so we can exchange views, not insults.

Instead of simply being vulgar, why don’t you post something relevant; like your own honest opinion of the RNS. From your response, I suspect you agree with me but simply don’t want to yet accept it. Alternatively, post a reason why this PE will remain higher than NCYT’s, given the ‘knowns’ in both?

As Benjamin Graham said; “The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists”.

I might buy more sub 40p.

Cheers
Intrepid.

Hi all.
I’m still of the opinion that ODX is over-valued at these rates. Pleased with my trade a couple of weeks backs switching into NCYT purely on comparable PEs.

As someone else said; nothing in that RNS jumps out ‘yes’ but most of the posts here were touting it as the reason for the next hike up. That’s not going to happen.

If I am honest, I won’t be surprised if this goes below 60p today, possibly lower than 50p, if I am brutal.

Hang onto yer ‘titffers’, it’s going to be one of those days.

All the best
Intrepid.

Hi Speranza.

I here your point. However, a CEO who states the company that they run is going to explode in value soon simply wouldn’t sell any shares before delivering at least the bulk of that growth. To sell before they have achieved that stated meteoric growth must call into question any or all of the following, to the realistic investor:

1. Their integrity;
2. Their judgement;
3. Their honesty;
4. Their ability.

Time will tell. Does big Al know something we don’t? - The answer is a guaranteed ‘yes’ - he’s the CEO. The next question is has he really sold shares simply because he couldn’t wait a while to hold that big house warming party or large dinner party - oh, hang on, Covid restrictions. Ah. Forget that line of questioning. Perhaps then, he knows that if the promised results are delayed/missed, his shares might be worth a helleva lot less and even this new property will remain firmly out of reach. We, of course, will never know for sure, but we are fools if we don’t ask that question to ourselves and think deep about his likely real reasoning.

For the record, I am not ‘out’ as PL75 suggests. I still hold ACVT, but I have have de-risked completely because of that CEO share sale. It’s a choice based on experience. If said decision is wrong I won’t make as much money, if it’s right I still made money. Happy days.
Love, peace, wealth, health & humour to you all.
Intrepid.

Methinks many on this thread are guilty of ‘cognitive bias’ - its one of the biggest problems of a PI.

IMHO, the ‘story’ isn’t why he used the word ‘dollar’ instead of ‘pound’; it may or may not have been intentional but it’s not really material. If anything, one could argue ‘dollar’ was used because it is easier to be a ‘dollar’ anything, compared to a ‘pound’ one; about 25% - 30% easier right now.
But isn’t the real story this; why would anyone sell shares where they are saying they are going to turn those shares from £1.80 to £200+.

Is he seriously saying he’d rather gran an extra couple of bedrooms and maybe a swimming pool now, (whilst risking undermining or bringing into question his integrity), instead of waiting a couple of years and selling those same shares for Nx more, and buy a proper pad (helicopter type, which attached ‘Lord of the Manor’ style house with all the toys).

It’s simply bonkers that someone/anyone sees the ‘dollar’ question before the actual ‘billion dollar question’.
But that’s cognitive bias for you.
Good luck all, but please don’t try to bend all the narrative to fit just your hopes. Try to stay truly objective and see beyond it all.
Cheers
Intrepid

Hi all,
managed to buy some at 965p this morning. quoted 968p but would not process and was 965p next attempt. Seemed the obvious trade, given this is still fundamentally undervalued. It was cash from recent AVCT sale, which I am having trouble investing in another target. seems silly to not buy on the inevitable dips on the way to £15+ by Xmas.

best regards
intrepid

Hi TripHop.

Hey, I don’t think I’ve ever been ‘reported’ before; that’s very exciting. What happens now?
As for your allegation that I have ‘pushed’ NCYT; all I have done is inform this BB of the trade I carried out. I don’t recall mentioning that anyone should buy NCYT during that on this BB. I simply mentioned I was not contrary on that BB, in response to another poster suggesting all I posted about was NCYT (if they looked, they’d see I post commentary on about 10 stocks). I have’t mentioned the stock I am rolling the AVCT profits into as I don’t want to spoil my own market.
So, I’m still no ‘de-tamper’, nor ‘cross-ramping’; just trying to add something to the debate.
Best regards
Intrepid.

Dear Malachai & Foreverfalling,

I'm no 'de-ramper'. I rarely 'trade' (and make it clear when I am). I seldom post on most of my holdings; just the ones where I think I have a valid view, which is quite often contrary (not in the case of NCYT - I'm trying to get across the message of 'hold your winners' there, as I think it is important for the less experienced PIs there). I fully appreciate that my often 'contrarian' stance does attract lots of 'we know what you are up to' comments, but that goes with territory - some don't like to hear other opinions or voice if what's being said is not in alignment with their own views. I certainly took some 'incoming' from lots of posters on BIDS because I was one of very few negative commentators.

However, consider this:- every market requires balance; both sides of the deal - if everyone thought the same, then we are in 'tulip-territory', because once everyone has invested, and there are no more contrarians around, then, ironically, that's the moment of greatest danger, because there is no-one left to buy any stock.

My AVCT transaction was based, (in the main), on the CEO sale, for the reasons stated, but also on the 'risk' element. I am perfectly happy with my de-risking from AVCT. I am now in for free so will park it until either it flies or dies. I've been invested since 56p so probably can be considered simply 'top slicing', if that terminology suits your psyche better and I have a healthy profit margin to fall back on.

Either way, it's an investment decision I can happily live with. I still want AVCT to hit the big time, clearly. Meanwhile, I am putting the realised cash to good use in another stock..................... and get this, the new stock is much more riskier than AVCT in some senses, because it's downside is 100%, whereas AVCT's downside is certainly not that. However, the risk of being in 2 risky stocks is less than being in one so, ironically, the trade meets my 'de-risk' requirement. Go figure.

Anyway, the reason for the original post was that I thought my view, being contrarian, was of use to the BB; what individuals do with it is their own business. But, as I am still invested, I can't be considered a 'de-ramper'. I've no interest in buying back the stock I sold as it's already being invested elsewhere (new target proving to be a bit 'sticky' and therefore difficult to get hold of).

But I do wish you guys the best in whatever path you follow. We are all in it for the same goal.
All the best
intrepid