Member Info for IntrepidInvestor

I’ll take that any day.
Methinks the hedgie‘s Shorting algos are finding it tough. Otherwise this would be down right now. Bodes well
Cheers
Intrepid.

Hi Hillseeker,
Nice posts. Tells me this BB is calming down; we have time/inclination to ‘wander’ and ‘wonder’ with our posts rather than constant ramping/bashing.
That’s an important change; less desperados and day-trading means less volatility and more cemented SP floors.
I’m out of Kent via London and moved to your area 11 yrs ago. Walberswick is my target retirement village; have family friends in the village. Just missed out on the dream house there earlier this year but will get there soon. Maybe see you for a Boxing Day dog walk and beer one year?
All the best
Intrepid.

If there is strong upswing, it is likely hedgies banking profits on short. They will then back off in size to re-visit after next strong upswing. The algorithm will likely have another go as £10 draws near. If it fails to drop the SP enough, it will mean we have learnt our lesson and enough of us have held our nerves.

‘too cheap’ not ‘to cheap’.

Hi capt-hindsight (or should that be ‘capt-sensible?).

I tried posting a message several times yesterday but lse website playing up.

Essence of the post was to remind everyone this drop is driven by hedgie algos and that it is eminently possible to trade profitably on the back of that.

Firstly, remember the WB saying in these times; “Don’t just do something, sit there!”

Don’t fall into your own psyche’s trap and sell because the sp is falling. Fundamentals are there to see. This is going to be £15+ before Xmas.

So, don’t sell. Instead, buy the dips. It’s painful to the psyche for the first dozen or so times but it eventually become ‘second nature’. If we all did it, the shorters algo would melt as it is programmed to predict predictable human responses - so a pull-back from nearly £10 is eminently predictable and the hedgie algos know this and push the short trade button. Anyone selling out on the back of this drop has lost to the hedgies.
Listen to and trust ‘the force’ and follow your inner voice that says ‘this is to cheap’.
Don’t ‘trade’ this. Buy and hold.
All the best
Intrepid.

Hi cristalballs
It says ‘for any reason’. So if Caesar fail to convince shareholders that 272p is the price, they either have to bid higher or ‘fail’ and pay the penalty of £275m. My guess there is at least that in a new offer of iis think 272 is to low.
But it is definitely a case of them paying £275m if we vote ‘no’ (Or they up the bid).
So it’s a very useful clause to WMH. No downside to it and very generous terms to protect WMH if deal does not go through ‘for any reason’.
Cheers
Intrepid.

‘the old’ not th e evils’

I understand and empathise with anyone selling today. Their paper profits are, in the main, huge and often life-changing, or at least enough to protect them from the worst the pandemic can throw out, financially.
However, I strongly urge them to follow Warren Buffet’s succinctly-expresses advice;
“Don’t just do something - sit there!”

The financials on NCYT are begging for an SP in the £30-£50 range. It will come as soon as the PIs who “do something” have done ‘doing’
But a profit is a profit and t hg evils stock exchange mantra is still valid - “it’s never wrong to take a profit”. But think hard about the numbers first; £450m of orders confirmed, plenty more to come and a valuation of about the same. This is definitely one of those “sit there” moments.
All the best
Intrepid.

Dear all
So, as suspected, there is a ‘Hell or high water’ clause in the offer docs.
Clause 4.1 of the ‘commitment letter’ states that Caesars will do everything in their power to complete the deal and should they fail for any reason, they have to pay WMH £275m. That’s nearly 10% of the deal value, which is extremely generous. Seems WHM has a fabulous backstop. Well negotiated, I say!
All the best
Intrepid.

Hi VanV,
I’ve already a small pos in PHE which I have been considering increasing. Maybe now time to. I will run the slide-rule over BMN.

The hydrogen play was brought to my attention when invited by Aston Martin to test drive the new vantage at Millbrook. Had to ask the AM guy why all the buses and lorries on the donut circuit; he said they have been testing hydrogen powered vehicles there for a few years. Researched and put the car money in a few hydrogen plays instead. I can’t see electric being the only solution.
All should look at SFOR and CRM for LTHs to put NCYT profits in (when you do decide to sell- I am here for £40+ in 5 years).
All the best
Intrepid

Hi Bramley1967,
I agree about your comments that everyone should re-evaluate their exit levels. Mine was c £14 back in May but it’s now a min £44 but will be adjusted upwards no doubt with more RNSs.

I very recently had a debate with a PI on the SFOR BB where I suggested SFOR would be the better performer over 5 yrs (we are both heavy into both). I now think I was wrong. I predict that NCYT will be the best performing sh of the 20s anywhere. I can’t believe my luck spotting it double from 15p to 30p at the beginning of Feb and buying a cheeky £7500 on a punt at 37p. However, it’s still got to get to £14 to overtake my best ever.
The reason this is not yet at that level is the number of people ‘cashing in’ their huge profits. I say ‘STOP’. This will get to £15 before Xmas and higher through 2021 even with a vaccine announcement. Hold until you can no longer sleep, then sell enough to help with the insomnia only.
All the best to you all
Intrepid.

Hi chromeinvestor.

Thanks for the response.

I find real value in lessons from history.

The last comparable pandemic was Spanish flu (which did NOT originate in Spain, btw; only known as that because Spain was not in the war so accurately reported the pandemic that all countries were experiencing but not reporting on - I digress).

That took 3 years and 3 peaks to get thru, which occurred through ‘herd immunity’.

Despite huge advances in medicine/technology, we are unlikely to get an effective vaccine for 3 years and therefore, this will be around for at least that time, probably longer. Politicians are determined to ‘flatten the curve’ which, incidentally, is the same as ‘lengthening the period of time to herd immunity and the passing of the pandemic’.

My point is that I firmly believe NCYT will benefit for at least 2-3 years from this. So revs along will be massive and they will look to invest that £ into growing. This has massive growth potential with limited risk. Therefore current SP is bonkers low.

All the best
Intrepid.

Hi Wilson63.

Is that ‘get in’ to NCYT or ‘get in’ to your neighbour? Fnnnar Fnnaarr

Intrepid.

Dear all.
Question:

Does anyone know of an as comparably undervalued stock as NCYT, when based on known fundamentals?

I don’t understand why these are not already above £15 and believe they will be nearer £30 within 2 years.

1/2 billion booked orders, £300m booked revs, first-mover benefit, stated acquisitional aspirations, and genuine support from LTHs

I’d love to hear about an historical comparison.

Cheers
Intrepid.

Hi all.
Some input into the SP from MMs perspective. There are clearly buyers at this level so the MMs are hunting stock to sell on. They won’t dare short as the chance of a higher bid is too great.
Most certainly hedgies gathering stock to force a ‘bumpitrage’ and could also be another suitor. What is certain is that Caesar’s cannot buy stock above their offer price or have others do it for them - would be another ‘Guinness affair’. All the while the SP holds above 272p it tells us that 272p will not succeed. Caesars will know this and will likely have to increase their offer otherwise they risk losing out and then having to pay the inevitable penalty to WMH; so may as well factor the cost os those penalties into a higher offer - that’s got to be worth another 20p - and then there’s the other potential bidders for even more headroom. I can’t see WMH slipping away for less than 320p, but certainly not below 292p.
Cheers
Intrepid

Hi Girdz

It might have been me on the BIDS BB. I remember being ribbed for investing in NCYT and responded I was also in ODX. Were 20p at the time.
Intrepid.

Hi Merchant.
Well, that’s one way of putting it.
I guess I could have waited for the RNS but I’m not disappointed with the net result.
I’ve sold some shares on a valuation of c. £190m with known/proven revenues of less than £3m and still loss-making, to put the same into one with a valuation of c £435m with proven revs/orders worth more than the valuation. As I am a LTH, and don’t really day-trade, I’m pretty comfortable with the trade. Maybe ODX outpaces NCYT from here short term but I’m (literally) betting it won’t longer term.
Maybe we’ll reconvene on this in 5 years?
Cheers
Intrepid.

Hi TWatcher.
It’s about processing risk for me.

I’ve taken a big chunk of profit from ODX, which I deem more risky than NCYT and put it into NCYT. As stated it was just under half my holding, so still in ODX but de-risked.
Clearly it looks like I would have got an extra 20-30p tomorrow, now the RNS is out, but let’s see.
As I’m not a day trader, I don’t kick myself too hard about timing; one can’t get it right all the time and I am happy with my 463% increase and free ride. I’ll keep the rest of the ODX and keep the new NCYT both LT.
Intrepid.

So that was terrible timing. Hi hum, mustn’t grumble.

Dear all.
I’ve sold half my holding today to place into NCYT. I’m still bullish of ODX but cannot reconcile the values being attached to both companies, given their proven incomes etc. In short, there is still a large amount of risk being ignored in the current valuation of ODX and a clear undervaluation in NCYT. I just can’t shake that view so have had to succumb to it and carry out the trades.

Best way to describe it is that both are in the fast lane doing top speed but NCYT is on a dry day and ODX is in the rain. Does that make sense to anyone else?

Still hold a few ODX from 22p and have fingers crossed on RNS on actual positive cash flow items.

All the best
Intrepid.