Member Info for IntrepidInvestor

Hi lolosng007

I think it’s an excellent sign that an external ‘corporate consultant’ has bought c £80k of shares; presumably because he likes what he is witnessing during his involvement. He’s clearly working at board level, hence the requirement to report.
There are not many cos where an external consultant desires to buy a fairly significant amount of shares because of what they see happening.
It’s a real green flag IMHO; as significant as GM’s half a bar buy.
We can sit back and not fret; those sales will be absurdly positive, when eventually announced.
All the best
Enjoy your weekends.
Intrepid.

Hi all
My understanding of the rules is a bit rusty but I think these purchases mean we can forget about a trading update anytime soon, as the BoD cannot trade ahead of planned trading updates by (I think) 8 weeks. The exception, I think, is if the shift in trading is exceptional or vast (or both) and the can argue it was possible for them to know at the time of the purchases or they have already provided information that tells the market there is already a shift in trading.
Methinks that the recent contract announcements and of production increases, suggests they are happy to sit on their hands re an update.
What is certain is that no ‘formal’ talks have started re any t/o; those trades would be barred.
Bless him though; the days delay cost him c £50k. But no matter; he knows he’ll make it back up the other end.
Cheers
Intrepid

Hi saintsmith, you should report HL to the FSA (or whatever they call themselves this week) if you don’t get your shares; if they issued a contract you should have your shares or have a claim for pure economic loss.
Cheers
Intrepid.

Hi victoria2,
Well someone has been busy supporting the SP at 715p for the last 2 days. Likely an RNS on a stakeholder before Xmas.

I feel for that VC that exercised all their multi-million warrants in NCYT and sold them sub £1 back in March. They will be kicking themselves on that one.
Cheers
Intrepid.

Hi lazypunter,
Do you mind if I offer you some advice (yes, I know EVERYONE says they don’t give ‘advice’ - this is advice to do with trading tactics, not advice on a particular share).

If you truly believe in your original decision to buy TILS at the higher level, it is imperative that you now buy some more at these lower levels. This because of the psychological effect it will cause you; buying now at this cheaper level will underpin your original decision insomuch that it both re-affirms your original decision as ‘correct’ and also removes the psychological pressure to ‘get out’ of the trade. We all feel these pressures and I know it works from personal experience. Only caveat is don’t invest more than you can afford to lose; otherwise you will get a stronger psychological effect from ‘worrying’.
I think TILS is a double-long term hold and have been buying on the dips, and will continue to do so.
Cheers
Intrepid

hi tas95.
the stock market is not the place for 'short term investments'. anyone who says they are doing so, are effectively gambling.
Long term is where the real money is to be made. if you park those savings for 10-20 years in the right stocks/trusts, you will find a really good return. but to expect it short term - play blackjack, its better odds.
as for Ncyt - i believe it will see you right in under 2 years (which is still not 'long term', btw). if you are lucky, it might be 12 months, or earlier if an update comes through with exceptional figures (still extremely possible as today's RNS about an effective vaccine does not remove the need to continue testing for the next 2 years.
all my big wins have been long term; it's a compounding effect thingy.
also, its never a loss until you close the position and, trust me on this, there is every chance this will be back up at £12 before long.
all the best with it,
intrepid.

Hi Victoria2,
The consensus is that to vaccinate whole populations of 'at risk' and their support systems globally will take over a year. To make that many vaccines will take many months production and to distribute them just as long. Also, at 90%, that leaves, in the UK alone, some 220,000 'at risks' who will still catch the virus, because we have an estimated 2.2m 'at risks'. Thats a lot of NHS beds/ventilators. Therefore it is clear that 'testing' will have to carry on until 2022 in earnest, just in this country. So, globally, there will be a real need to test test test for at least another 18 months to 2 years. That was always my estimation and the only thing that has altered is that a likely vaccine is going to become available some 3-4 months earlier than thought (assuming it is available by Xmas). So, really, we are talking about that 3-4 months 'lost revenue' at worst. I think the shares were cheap at £10 and I certainly think they are cheap now at c £7. So I bought some more today (eventually - what a palaver!). Paid £7.18 after trying all the way up from sub £6.

I still cannot see any reason why these are not c. £30 - £45 in 2 years (unless they have been bought out on the cheap).

all the best
intrepid

........that SFOR has not attracted the Spivvy elements of the BBs yet. I put this down to the fact that SFOR will continue to grow at a pretty constant decent rate which is never quite enough short term to create the ‘hype’ that typically gets the spivs swarming. Instead, that strong constant growth compounds over a few years and we have our 10-20 bagger. I am looking forwards to the next 5 years; which is by when I predict SFOR is crowned the largest agency in the world and I will have seen c 15 bags. And I hope this occurs without once exciting the day-traders.

SMS is carrying out his master plan as only he can. Seems to me he is executing very similar moves I watched him carry out at WPP but at quick-double rate.

All the best.
Intrepid.

Good news, as predicted. The key is the extent that the RNS commented on how increased orders et al were strong on October, and that they expect momentum to carry through.

Looks like the diagnostics market has woken up to the necessity of the PrimeStore product.

I hope you all bought extra recently. Might not see these levels again. Having said that, there might be the predictable slight pull back on this (as that’s what markets often do ‘sell on news’). I will top up some more if they do.
All the best
Intrepid.

Dearest Mr Nation.

“De-ramp”. A word only ever used by traders & gamblers who are worried about the extent of their exposure/loss.

Any ‘investor’ knows that time will out the results and therefore dictate the SP. ‘investors’ are not concerned with short term price fluctuations or the opinions or comments of others that are contrary to their own, because they believe in their own decision and therefore believe time will repay them. They therefore look forward to the dips, to buy further stock, backed up by their convictions.

Maybe it’s time you should try investing instead of trading. That way, you’ll see benefit in listening and allowing contrary views without the constant need to shout them down every time (and it is EVERY time).

The above ‘said’, I don’t feel my posts this last 24 hours have been ‘negative’, just realistic and tempered. An opinion of 40% chance of not hitting any meaningful revs in 2020 is clearly not as pessimistic as, say, 60%, 70% or 100%. I assume you are just not happy with my opinion that it’s only a 10% chance that BIDS hits the revs out of the park. I get that. We are all frustrated given the “3 years in 1” message, some 2 years ago. But look at the SP and ask yourself why it’s not moving? Is it because BIDS has plugged the leaks or is it because the revs are yet to come? I am simply suggesting the odds are that it’s the latter. If I am right, then time is now running out, and I learnt a long time ago to never bet against ‘time’; it only ever moves in one direction at a constant pace but has a weird knack of speeding up as one runs out of it. Hence my 10% on that.

Another question that needs to be asked/answered is what will the SP be if the ‘revs’ are middling or near the guidance? I reckon that depends on whether said ‘guidance’ is post or pre ‘cost of sales’ (aka the gaming platform’s share). 24% of ‘guidance’ as BIDS own revs will sink the SP. 24% of revs equals ‘guidance’ will keep things moving in a steady rate towards a decent 4th round of financing (3rd on AIM).

Anyway, I’ve commented only because of the CDM t/o as that is significant (we just don’t know how yet).

I’ll post again on the next important event.

All the best
Intrepid.

Oops. Didn’t mean two ‘final options’. Take first final option as penultimate one.
Soz

Morning all.
I do love a good debate. Thank-you to the usual suspects for not attacking me personally this time; much appreciated.

It’s quite right; my expressed view can only be based on a mixture of my own assumptions based on historical experience (of BIDS and general stock investing). I’ve no ‘inside track’ so am limited, like most of us, to the above approach.
Tred, of course I’ve invested in MVR. The clue is in my pseudo; I’m not intrepid for nothing - it’s where the real money is made - in young high growth potential firms (albeit with the not-insignificant downside of high risk of failure/loss). Many AIM-style companies fail or drift aim-lessly (‘cuse the pun), but every now and again a NCYT comes along and makes it all very worthwhile.
I think we all seem to agree this will now go one way or another in the following weeks. My point was the CDM t/o puts in yet another level of complexity, given how strategically important the relationship is to BIDS. I seriously doubt the CDM offer is because of ‘in-game advertising’; if it is, then why not just buy BIDS? It’s about titles and the money flowing into gaming. Whether any of that is is flowing into BIDS is what we are all about to find out.

Remember Buffet’s words:
“The stock market is a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term”
The ‘weight’ of time is beginning to kick in; BIDS‘ SP is 5.5p vs 6p at RTO in SEP18. That’s not because of any ‘deramping’ on BBs, that’s solely because of promises broken.
My main point was that the SP will guide is as to what to expect in the next update (because I believe BIDS ‘leaks’ info). This suggests that, if the ‘Significant’ revs are there between now and 31DEC then the SP will rise because of the leakage. If not there, well?
I’m not buying or selling right now. I’m happy with my c 100,000 position and firmly see it as a punt now. I’ve no idea which way it will go but suspect that BIDS will narrowly miss guidance and is supported at the next fundraiser (40% likely IMHO) But they could just as easily miss completely and struggle next yr (40% IMHO). Final option is they smash revs and all’s lovely (10%). Final option is they secure a buyer for the business (because that’s what I would do if it’s clear we need more money and still can’t show significant revs after the positivity on the back of the 1st lockdown). That’s 10% likely IMHO.
So that 40% negative, 40% middling and 20% positive from me.
All to play for at the BIDS baize, methinks.
Good luck at this table to you all. Let’s hope we cane the croupier.
And trust you all have a decent lockdown 2.0
Kindest regards
Intrepid.

Hi Roleybirkin/Wilson63.

I have not posted here for a while as been waiting for something substantial to occur. And yesterday it did. Dramper is clearly very friendly with the BoD of CDM and that relationship constitutes the majority of exposure BIDS has to popular games, (as far as I can tell, without guidance on actual revenues and progress made etc. ). I’d go so far to say that BIDS would not even exist were it not for that ‘special relationship’ between the two.

I suspect the CDM bid will muddy the water somewhat for BIDS, moving forwards. If they are taken over, it is clearly very possible for the new owners to take a different view on the BIDS relationship than the current BoD. I accept this could be an even more positive position, but my gut tells me that it is more likely to hinge on actual financials rather than personal relationships/mutual positivity of in-game advertising; which would suggest that if BIDS do not deliver soon (or are, indeed, actually not delivering now), then BIDS may not continue as their ‘preferred partner’ - which would be a major blow. Essentially the potential t/o is another ‘known unknown’ at a time when the BIDS SP now needs ‘known knowns’.

Furthermore, the market response to CDM has been lacklustre, which is telling (and surprising). If, as seems to be, this is a done deal, then it looks like there are questions on the suitor’s own SP/future prospects that may lead to this deal not proceeding. The question that immediately hit me was whether there was any ‘significant’ extra income that CDM was experiencing from its contracts with BIDS - if it is showing in the top-line of the CDM accounts, then this will show in their disclosures; so we should lookout for these as I suspect they will become public soon (if not already - I haven’t looked). I suspect we will get our much-needed ‘update’ from CDM before we hear from BIDS - unless BIDS wake up to this likelihood and update us before we figure it out for ourselves.

But I’ve a strong feeling ‘no news’ is not ‘good news‘, and I suspect most LTHs of BIDS are experiencing the same feelings, looking at recent posts.

I’m still holding onto a fraction of past levels because I want the concept to work, but we will know within 6 weeks. Either way, there will be more funding required next yr so BIDS will need some revs to show or even Dramper’s own holding will be diluted further to near nothing next time (placing will be sub 2p without ‘significant’ revs, next time).

So, all to play for over this next 6 weeks. If AIM is a bit of a casino, as some like to tout it, then BIDS is currently looking like that empty table in the corner, where they are about to remove the croupier and close the table for lack of punters. What needs to occur is that the current croupier is replaced with a much more attractive one, so as to generate interest.

As we know BIDS cannot keep a secret, I think the SP will guide us as to what the update will be.
All the best

Hi Trinityman.
My household all caught in mid March. Good luck with it. I took supplements for zinc & Vit D. Not sure if they helped but was mildish experience for me.
Cheers
Intrepid.

Hi all,
This predicted fundraiser was on the cards the moment we, as shareholders, rejected the recent move to delist the Co.

Given this, those of us who voted and posted in favour of staying listed, now have a moral obligation to contribute to the fund-raising.
All the best
Intrepid.

It was cutting towards tiltok, taking the line of ‘your children are under attack’. If that doesn’t get column inches in the press tomorrow, I suspect nothing will
Intrepid.

Hi all.
Is anyone else watching the BBC Panorama on tiktok?

but Porky9, you've forgotten that Ocado is a tech play, er, with, er, it's fleet of vans and, er, warehouses, so it gets 'valued' on the same multiples as a software provider, hence it is clearly worth effectively 94.93 times that of a simple 'old fashioned' company like NCYT in it's dusty/cobwebby diagnostics sector.
(am trusting the sarcasm is coming through loud n' clear).

understood sasa43.
there are lots of smaller players in this sector - it is ripe for 'consolidation', which is another way for saying the big guys hoover up the small players before they get too big.

I'm trusting us all as LTHs that we don't let NCYT go to cheap. £200+ is my 3 yr view.

some might call me crazy. but I've seen it before.

all the best
intrepid.

Hi triller1337.

You make a very valid point; that Covid will not be around forever, and that has some bearing in the ‘valuation’ issue right now. But the smart money has already realised one thing; ‘diagnostics’ is the growth sector for the next few years: Why? Because there will be an increasing number of pandemics moving forwards. A lot has changed since Spanish flu. Moreover, Spanish flu took off because of 2 reasons; 1. Publication of its existence and deadliness was banned by govts of countries at war thru 1917-1918 (except in Spain, which was neutral - and this is the reason it is named thus). 2. The virus was driven around the world by the massive increase of international travel (due to troop movements/war effort).

Why is this relevant? Because the level & speed of ‘international travel’ is crucial in pandemics. Since the early 1990’s we have witnessed a much larger proportion of the world’s population become well-off enough to afford jet travel. That has led to a significant increase in the number of pandemics ‘taking hold’.

This is a non-reversible trend. Pandemics will become more frequent so long as more and more people in previously poor countries get to the point where they can afford to travel (China, India, Brasil, Indonesia et al).

Novacyt is in its own sector ‘Cytokine storm’ in terms of the drivers of change coming through. The whole sector is a ‘buy’. NCYT is simply one of the first to benefit- to the point they will be able to use their massive cash flows to develop into one of the world’s leading diagnostics companies. The question is whether this occurs as an independent or as part of a larger pharma.

But, mark my words; pandemics and the need for diagnostics are/is here to stay.

All the best
Intrepid.