Member Info for IntrepidInvestor

Buck-it, I’ve bought a few more at 1.4485.
All the best.
Intrepid.

Hi all.
Does anyone know the cost of the sponsorship of Norwich FC that BIDS ‘invested’ in. And does anyone want to comment on the appropriateness of the CEO using that money to sponsor the team he supports, just to likely no doubt obtain supplementary season tickets or a box and to appear a ‘big swinging dix’; the irony being how this season has planned out, in terms of being able to use those tickets;
If Dramper fails to deliver on revenues then I think he should go, just for this fact. And when I refer to Revenues, I mean ‘revenues’, not ‘sales’. BIDS revenues are the section of their sales that belongs to them and not the platform the sales were generated on. So £1.2m of revs will likely require £5m of sales at the previously declared ‘76% cost of sales’ figure from previous published results (assuming they have been able to maintain that 24% margin - when it’s likely they have had to reduce that to attract business).
£5m in sales? Anyone think that is likely? The current SP doesn’t.
Wishing you all much luck on this one.
Intrepid

I won’t be at all surprised to see an increase above the recent placing price today, an potentially further. All that was missing from the update were hard numbers, but it’s bullish and, most importantly, as predicted at the last fund-raising. Pleased as this is one of my highest ‘weighted’ investments currently. I got a bit sucked in by the Triller angle; or I didn’t, as it now appears. True potential from here on out
All the best
Intrepid.

Hi afterburn450
Re your frustration on lack of news.

I feel there has been perfectly acceptable and well-timed execution of updates except the last one, which given the very recent PDMR purchases (and RNSs) was a bit amateurish.

However, we all know big contracts have been won and the products are in huge demand. Therefore, there is no actual requirement to report anything that fits with that ‘message’. So, if I were NCYT, I would focus on delivery 100% and not be bothered with any distraction, including massaging investors nerves.

Moreover the RNSs on the PDMR purchases means we should not really get a trading update much before next week, and then it’s only a couple of weeks to y/e. So why not time an update for Xmas; or a new year treat. Until then............ silence is golden.
All the best
Intrepid.

Hi Hopeful32.
This latest upward trend is likely a combination of factors:

1. Approaching year end, mid level and senior level accounting team members are gathering data that will reveal the y/e accounts. This sort of ‘restricted/privileged’ data always leaks our to people who then trade on that inside information.

2. Short squeeze; combination of running out of new sellers from previous high and shorters/recent sellers buying back in. With no more sellers, the launchpad will be set for an extended upward run.

3. Deep-pocketed iis buying their opening stakes. We have blackrock recently declaring and the FM and family office declaring in a recent podcast; they won’t be the extent of it. Essentially, there is an ongoing ‘rollover’ from PIs (those selling) to IIs (those buying) - there is a limited pool of PI sellers but a near-unlimited source of II money to replace it.

I suspect and hope to see a continual move up now as these 3 factors play out, until the financials are declared or a trading update sets the floor at the newly underpinned level (the $64,000 question being what is that new level).

My view is £14.41 top in January and £24.22 high by end of April.

All the best
Intrepid.

Thanks all.
I’ve read those replies and they suggest an average ‘consensus’ of c. 15 million tests (NOT ‘kits’) and a mean price of c £7.5 a test across all markets.

That suggests a rough annualised T/o of £1.35b; so theoretical valuation of £2.02b based on very basic valuation process of 1.5x t/o (as suggested by that fund manager recently).

That’s c £28.50 SP.

I’ve no reason to doubt any of that consensus; yes, it could be lower than that, but it could just as easily be higher. So, as long as production capacity and production efficiency run ‘as is’, I think this target is as good as any we can compute on current intel.
We will get an update once the required time has past since the PDMR purchases earlier this month.

I suspect timing of an update could be just before Xmas (nice pressie) but they may just wait until they have draft annual figs for Y/E 31DEC. That could be early Jan.
Either way, we should see £28.50 SP by end JAN21.
That’s my view and I’ll be sticking to it until the facts say different.
Thanks for all your hard work at Bletchley Park.
Intrepid.

Hi ShaunP.

Can you tell me what the latest intel is on the maximum production capacity of testing kits now? And what we understand to be their sales price?

Sorry if this has been posted in the past but I have not been able to keep fully abreast of the BBs recently.

Cheers
Intrepid.

Hi Nen2319

Re your question whether anyone will bid for SFOR:

Zero chance whilst SMS is in charge. If anything, he will do any bidding there is to be done.

All he needs now is a few quarters of 20%+ organic growth and he will be able to buy virtually any company he desires. The advertising industry is in full flux right now but so many in the industry have yet to wake up to this new reality.
Methinks he won’t stop until SFOR is the No. 1 in the world and has knocked WPP off its perch.
I think an SP of £19 will do that (assuming WPP manages to halt its own SP grind down).
I’m in this for the long term. I keep buying more at each pause. Last 2 lots were at 368p and 464p.
I’ll keep rotating wins or put some new investment into this until they are no. 1.
All the best
Intrepid

“Christmas is coming, the goose is getting fat,
Please put a penny in the Bidstack hat,
If you haven’t got a penny, an ‘appeny will do,
If you haven’t got an ‘appeny, the god ........

You must be the BIDS sales team!

Cheers
Intrepid.

I’m a buyer at ‘once’ Helx.

Hi Helx.
They will be fundraising again; that’s a given. It’s again a question of at what level and corresponding dilution; unless dramper knocks the revs out of the park (which is clearly NOT happening, hence the SP stuck at 5p or nearly 20% below the RTO level of 2018).
So, perhaps ‘3 years in 1’ refers to the cash burn rate, after all.
Intrepid.

I just hope students have been ignoring the rules enough for them all to have now caught and recovered from COVID-19 to the point they are no longer contagious and are full of antibodies and suitably programmed T-cells. That way, they won’t be a danger to anyone and will be part of the solution
My nephew is coming to ours this Xmas, as part of my sister’s family and will spend the 5 days with my family including my mother (a 75 yr old of relatively poor health). Mum’s fully up to speed with the risks but does not want to spend Xmas alone. Said nephew caught the virus in October.
We are all really looking forward to the gathering, tests or no tests.
Cheers
Intrepid.

Hi all

I believe the currently poor ‘false negatives’ of LFTs will mean their use won’t become ubiquitous until and unless their accuracy improves. Stands to reason that care home owners, hospital administrators, those in charge of State borders etc. will not accept this sort of inaccuracy for long; otherwise they will simply import the virus into previously clean environments.

I like to think NCYT has already been told unofficially that they have secured ‘phase 2’ of the PHE contract. Otherwise why the director purchases? The obvious other reason for the director purchases is that they have already secured ‘conditional’ orders for those units (and test kits) put aside for PHE to other enterprises, so they know they have pre-sold everything NCYT has and will produce this coming 6-12 months.
Cheers
Intrepid.

Hi nordell

“Where do you find the time?”

Good one. Like it. Pure Michael McKintyre.

intrepid.

Hi harchris
I’m not nor have I ever said ‘turn a blind eye to the pandemic’. I’m invested here because I know we can’t and won’t do that. My point is lockdowns don’t work and have real long lasting negative effects that far outweigh any ‘good’ delivered, so we must look for other ways.

My older relatives would all happily stay at home and die there if they have to rather than force this on the young. I am made of the same stuff (funny that). My relatives are, as you rightly point out, being selfless. All those old people who insist the young are being selfish and should “do the decent thing” are, in fact, the selfish ones. As for any middle-aged people insisting others lockdown so their fears for themselves or their older relatives are alleviated; - yep - also selfish. It’s just not fair on the young or anyone of any age who wants to just have their liberty.

My earlier suggestion on a ‘mega-bubble’ for the vulnerable is a much fairer approach. Lockdown the vulnerable, not everyone else.

I think this debate needs to be had by everyone; someone mentioned Matthew Parrish earlier; he wrote a stonker of an article in the Times back in the first lockdown and is of the same opinion as I, and, I suspect, a large proportion of our population.

Wishing you all health, happiness, kindness and full and meaningful lives (no-one wants to live a pointless one, let’s be honest)
Intrepid.

* “stealing you of your youth”

Hi Earth70000.
Well done for being honest (as the thread requests).
I am on your side. My mum, aunt, uncles are all over 75 and are on your side. They categorically feel it is wrong for everyone to be locked up so some elderly people can go to the shops once a week. They feel they are being protected at the end of their lives (the bit where they don’t really want to do much anymore anyway) and they will be long dead before this horrendous bill is presented for paying. Furthermore my mum thinks that more harm will be done to your generation by treating you as less important than her.

I think HMG is stealing you if your youth and you will, as a generation, make them pay for that at some point. My fear is civil unrest but it will manifest in all sorts of ways including tax evasion (your generation will likely adopt crypto currencies to completely evade taxes). I feel we are risking cataclysmic events to society, of a nature we cannot envisage now. Just think of the sort of decisions in Versailles in 1919 that led to the rise of Hitler. No-one, and I mean absolutely no-one in government at that time predicted that their actions in 1919 would lead the world down such a dark path.

I see parallels today. I am desperate to be wrong but the longer this ridiculous approach to the pandemic goes on for the more likely it is I am going to be proved correct.

Putting aside such theories or ‘possibilities’ let’s just look at this from a utilitarian perspective; why should you be burdened with a working life’s worth of taxes and denied countless opportunities (that the older generations have had) to help extend the lives of a small percentage of people who are at the end of their lives? It makes no sense to me and I’m my middle age; I am sure it makes a lot less sense to the young.

And this is not to say you, I or anyone against lockdowns don’t care; those on this BB responding to you with venom are missing the point of this debate; there has to be a better way than ‘lockdowns for all’ and we should be allowed to air our views. I just feel our leaders are letting us down because they don’t want to be the ones saying “some of you are going to die” or “you all must use an app that means we can trace your every movement all the time”. But yet they are able to say “you must stay at home” specifically and only because most of us were already preparing to or actually doing that so the politicians were pushing in an open door back in March
As for paying for it; I can’t begin to get my head around the numbers but I know it will drag on us financially for years. Perhaps what needs to happen is that HMG removes the exemptions on inheritance tax for 15 years so that everyone over 70 now all pay 40% of ALL their estate to the government. Combining it with a 40% tax on all gifts made by over 70s for the same timescale should do it.

It’s not lost on me that such an approach will mean it’s my inheritance that will be paying for this when my mum goes

Hi troublesome.
So according to the nHS it is the over 70s and those with certain conditions and pregnant women (or however they wish to identify a sexually!)
That’s pretty much my first stab at the requested solution spot on then.
Assuming the nHS is correct.
Anyone else want to suggest options that don’t end up with me and millions like me forcibly losing our liberty and livelihoods?
Cheers
Intrepid.

HiKatia
The data and stats say that is incorrect. Some 50+ get ill and need vents but only a fraction and very few will die. I caught it. I’m in my 50s. It was fine. Many of my friends caught it first time around. All ok. One died but was in hospital with terminal cancer so had no chance (59).
And anyway, no solution will be be perfect so it’s about ‘best endeavours that protect the most but don’t destroy the economy. If the private sector dies, so does the NHS (and most of our services except the military & the police). Everything else will be privatised as there will be no taxes to pay for it all.
Cheers
Intrepid

Hi afterburner450.
Re your frustration with current radio silence.
My major PLC company secretary thought that the last RNS was both a bit amateurish and likely warranted a call from the authorities to their CS about rules surrounding timing of PDMR share trades.

I therefore think we won’t hear anymore until deep into December, to give the space required from that round of directors purchases.
Cheers
Intrepid.