Member Info for IntrepidInvestor

Hi all. Long time no post.
I think I will now be buying back in at these levels. Glad I sold most following the underwhelming trading update earlier this year.
The shock here is that I agree with others - NCYT have been sitting on this news for some while and chose to drop it 20 mins after the announcement that Prince Philip had died. That is totally unacceptable behaviour of the BoD of NCYT.
Makes me believe they are a bit more amateurish than first appearance. I’ve got these down as a takeover target on the back of that RNS.
Cheers
Intrepid.

Hi all.
I thought I’d drop by as BIDS made my top three performers today.
My guess is either an approach by someone to bid for BIDS (please be this as it puts many out of their misery) Or BIDS broker is pushing the SP for some reason. We all know it’s a leaky ship, just by the many examples of SP movements in the correct direction ahead of the RNSs. Solely on this I’m plumbing for a bid approach. BIDS is in that zone now, IMHO.
Cheers
Intrepid.

Hi wilson63.

I think we are in danger of being in violent agreement with each other overall.

My point has been lost in the ether but, essentially, I was agreeing to the end result (more sales) but not the steps to that (guaranteed orders coming thru that need fulfilling). I was simply suggesting that the roles have a duel task of fulfilment and creation.
I just suspect creation/origination is likely more important than fulfilment right now.
Intrepid.

Hi kitzie
So where are the sales? No update from NCYT suggests no change to that main NHS contract, which has delivered towards the lower end. My business instinct is telling me that NCYT needs more than one approach to prizing that cash out of the NHS and these roles, whilst likely not their declared purpose, it’s one of their primary roles, one way or another.
Not that it matters - I suspect this thing will go northwards again on the back of what’s going on in France and I suspect sales will materialise from many more corners.
Cheers
Intrepid.

Hi auntiebob.

Not sure what you are on about. Seems you think I am de-ramping NCYT. To avoid any confusion; quite the opposite. I think this SP is heading back towards £10. This new variant will catch many out, but past performance suggests NCYT will move fast enough to stay in the game.

I don’t fancy chances of the LFTs though, if Le Frenchie gets going. I can’t see how it won’t if it’s undetectable and the EU hasn’t vaccinated enough (what a car crash that whole political mess is for them - even more damaging than brexit as it shows a small political class completely ignoring what is best for their electorate because of It’s Political Doctrine/philosophy - that will nite then deep in the arse come elections).
Cheers
Intrepid.

Hi troublesome.
All I ask my gods for, is that the authorities listen to me, ironically.

After all, Ive always believed I know better than them. I’ve come to realise the absolute truth in that belief during this pandemic and their responses.
Cheers
Intrepid.

Hi Oak/Wilson.

I haven’t been keeping up as have other fish frying of late, hacking cashed out 60% on the results.

So it appears that NCYT state they can detect the Brittany variant. That will be the reason for the SP recovery last couple of days. I fully expect that to continue. Maybe run back up to £10.

But I’ll be honest, I’m much more worried about the wider markets if we can only detect new variant with specific lab PCR tests. It’ll mean more lockdowns and I don’t think economies will react well to that notion. Everyone is pinning their hope on vaccines and LFTs proving ‘protection and cover’

To coin an old Chinese curse- We are living in interesting times.
Intrepid.

Hi Wilson63.

I don’t agree. That job description specifically mentions ‘influencing’ within the NHS.

I think these new roles are an attempt to ‘pull’ orders from individual NHS trusts because the ‘push’ process (the original £450m contract) is not delivering to its max.

This is a great tactical move but it will take time to deliver, without any guarantees. What I’m clear on now is that take up of PCR testing by the NHS is much lower that expected but I think that will soon change if the new French variant gets here and NCYT sort a working test for that. The fact that all eight people died who had this new variant is deeply worrying. That is statistically about as gloomy as it’s got for the whole of this pandemic. A poll of 8 suffers from large probability accuracy issues, but a 100% response rate even on a poll of 8 has a high percentage change of correlation to actual. About 25% chance if my A level statistics recollections are correct. In other words we are looking at 4/1 that this could kill everyone who catches it. That’s terrible odds.

Of course, a much larger poll (100+) will resolve the accuracy of the prediction. And there is always the possibility that all eight died because of an unusual factor, like, for example, because the were not treated as covid patients to start with, ( because they were testing negative) meaning the treatment that could have saved them was not delivered. All hypothesis of course, but we have to start somewhere.

Either way, I’m back in the ‘worried’ camp for the first time since before I caught Covid last March.

Cheers
Intrepid.

Hi B2HS2L

I have a slightly different version from a different source, stating that even PCR testing WON’t detect it. The Brittany cases were picked up through something referred to genionmic sequencing. I’ve not heard of that before so don’t believe it is PCR-related. The article is in Forbes and specifically states PCR failed to pick it up and casually finishes with the fact that all 8 carriers died.

Twitter link to article:

https://twitter.com/aimhardy/status/1372716214611550209?s=21

If this is true, it will represent a step change. The question is, “which way?”.

My view is that if any test is likely able to quickly be adapted to work on the new French variant (Le variant Breton) it will be PCR style ones. I think this is positive for NCYT but a likely big setback for society, in terms of lockdowns.

I think if you didn’t take advantage of the recent dips then now is the time to buy back in or top up. This could put another rocket under the SP, assuming NCYT can come out with an RNS that they have sorted a test for this new variant - they took less than 3 weeks to create a test from the uploading of the original virus DNA files so I expect a similar turnaround.

All the best
Intrepid.

Hi ad4you.
Re new bar virus being 94% identical to Covid.
So what. Humans are 80% identical to chickens and therefore dinosaurs. Nothing matters in gene terms until the last 2%........ unless you live on the Isle of Mann, where is 0.001%.
Cheers
Intrepid.

Sorry should be;
“One of the largest deals ever” but sentiment & outcome is the same; big profits boost, %-wise.
Intrepid.

Hi all.
This morning’s RNS is very bullish, methinks. The CEO describes the latest deal as “commercially, one of the most important deals ever [for GFIN]”.

Given they have declared they are now generating profits every month (ie. costs are covered) and new revenues should go mostly straight to the bottom line - translating into magnified increases in profits.
I think the next trading update has all the potential to surprise on the upside.
All the best
Intrepid

Hi indiscipline.

I think we are both on the same page, if not the same paragraph; BIDS is highly likely to have to raise more cash (I’d say 97% certain).
My worry is that the fund-raising won’t go well this year, if all they have to should is c. £500,000 revs (so c. £120k earnings) per month, with little or no upward trajectory. From my perspective, I won’t take part unless there is an update showing good month on month progress and a very clear message on the runway to profitability- none of this Dramper-speak. I’m fed up with being treated as some sort of investment moron that Dramper believes is here to hook by cunning.
I doubt I am alone in that opinion.
Intrepid.

Hi northernboy.

It’s clear BIDS has the potential to surprise on both the upside and the downside.

I am trying to ignore their track record of dressing up test revs as actual bonafide revs. But I struggle. Therefore I won’t be at all surprised if the revs don’t carry on along an upwards trajectory.

However, assuming the revs are genuine, and the momentum is genuine, we could see some really interesting figs which would set up a decent raise at higher levels.

My cynicism is such though, that I feel the comment in the last RNS about focusing on strategic deliveries and not short term wins was just more of the typical nonsense from Dramper - who clearly thinks he is cleverer than the average bear - and is code for ‘don’t be surprised if we cannot deliver the same sort of growth next time, because [those were not genuine revs/we used creative accounting to massage the revs/we are genuinely not focussing on revenues because we have a more important strategy]DELETE AS YOU SEE FIT.

Either way, I think there has to be another raise in the next couple of months.

Cheers
Intrepid.

* S/b ‘bean-counting’.
Why count beams. Imagine the abacus needed.
Intrepid.

Hi wolfofwarks.

Whilst your point is technically correct, it ignores one vital point; when a more traditional company capitalises much of its setup costs, these usually consist of tangibles (plant and equipment) that can be sold if the co goes belly-up. However most of the setup costs of a tech co are salaries and the ‘asset’ is an intangible bit of software/coding. If that co goes belly-up it is very likely the asset is worthless or very difficult to sell and the reality is that the co’s cash has been spent on salaries; ergo it is completely correct to show that expenditure on the P&L. Your point highlights the obvious; that tech startups need cash for salaries and little else (Some office & travel costs associated with the same). Even their professional service fees are really salaries.
The absolute key to a tech start-up is three-fold:
1. Being first to market.
2. Staying ‘first’
3. The market being real (measurable progress towards future profitability).

If those three things are ticked, the startup will keep raising new cash. If not, well, it becomes increasingly more difficult.

The accepted accounting principles are defo correct because of the ‘it’s all salaries’ point.

Re Bidstack. I think it’s another raise, which Dramper will have to come out and be honest about revenue (pre ‘cost of earnings‘ such as the portion paid to platforms and agents) & earnings (Post those costs) progress.
My take is that those figs will be material as to what level the next raise is. If the 2020 figs were genuine (by that I mean not somehow past thru the creative accounting dept or otherwise ‘fudged’ (see 2018 declared revs for a real example of that) then I believe the momentum shown at the tail of 2020 should provide a great platform to raise, assuming its kept pace into 2021. If it hasn’t kept pace, that tells me the the beam-counting genie was deployed again for the 2020 figs.
Fingers crossed, eh!

Intrepid

Hi all,
not posted here before, but was invested in Concha when it got caught out by the antic of that decidedly iffy guy who ran that fake unicorn VE Interactive (think his name was David Green).

That's old history but something seems to be up with these now. The last placing, whilst it has only raised minimal working capital for what is effectively a shell company, there is encouragement in the fact the valuation of Ritorno PLC has increased to c. £11.6m - given it's only asset seems to be a convertible loan note in Low6, which is itself unlisted (but planning an IPO), that is one helluva valuation. My guess is an IPO is in the offing and Ritorno might just be able to grab some value from the convertible loan note.

Fingers crossed, we might still see some value here.

all the best
intrepid

Hi airlineboy,
I think it’s most forward-thinking of you to involve your son in your investment activities; the most potent of all investment messages is “start early” - the effects of compounding interest and all that!
But it also means he gets his ‘learning’ in early and there is a hugely valuable lesson here - things rarely go on as predicted and always be prepared to be wrong and make adjustments.
I think it’s better to experience this sort of SP turbulence early so one has the tools and capabilities later on, when one hopefully has a larger capital base (thus, more to lose/gain).
Preparation is nine tenths of the game.
Cheers
intrepid.

Hi all.
Been holding for a year or so. In at 7p and a LTH.
I gather this movement is due to w/e press and a link to a ‘lifetime’ vaccine for COVID. Is that correct? Would welcome accurate summary before I commit more.
Also, re MMs; having been one in a previous life, I wouldn’t be to sure the ‘short squeeze’ theory is all that’s going on. It could be, but just as likely is a push higher just to see where the appetite is. Or it could be an internal analysts re-rating with that MM happy to take the stock higher by taking out their competitors. But the point is, it might not be a spike.
Will look out for any comments re the above.
All the best
Intrepid.

Hi all.
Just seen a story on webull that Triller is providing music content services for Tesla cars following an upgrade to software. Could this be 7DIG now behind the music for Tesla cars?
I recall a claim that a new ‘global tech partner’ had been signed up. Maybe this is it?
Cheers
Intrepid.