Member Info for IntrepidInvestor

I’d describe this as a bored punt, this time. I think the SP will rise up thru the latter part of the year. What they do on results is anyone’s guess but I feel c. 6p by xmas is the right call. Will all depend on the ‘leakage’ from within BIDS that clearly occurs when advertising is being booked.
The tipping point for me this time was the improvement in margins - that suggests these players have realised they need to collect more of a take than their earlier business modelling asked for.
As I say, a bored punt.

Hi all.
I’ve just bought back in. Surprised to get 251071 at less than 2p, so cheaper than the recent fundraiser. I think these will run up on the end of year figures; am guessing the will likely to be quite significant (compared to all previous revs).
All the best
Intrepid.

This looks like a determined seller ahead of the results on 13th. Smacks of insider trading - which then suggests the results will be below expectations.

Does anyone know what the analysts forecasts are?

Been in since 5p level with an average of 12p. Looking to add more if this goes much below 30p
All the best
Intrepid.

Dear all,
Just a brief post to say that, whilst the SP is running ahead of where I expected it, I am not surprised. I watched SMS take over a little midlands based company called ‘Wire and Plastic Products’ previously specialising in supermarket baskets and turn it into the biggest marketing agency in the world in less than a decade.
The guy has form so why be surprised. I bought my last slug of shares at 483p, thinking it would double in possibly 3 but certainly 5 yrs. glad to be proven wrong. My guess is that the growth rates are continuing apace and that we are witnessing a whole-scale adoption of wholly digital and automated advertising by marketing departments across the globe. Given this was one of the reasons SMS was hounded out of WPP (along with a succession planning dispute - they wanted him to retire; he didn’t agree) - SMS could see that the WPP business model needed to evolve quickly and was at odds with his BoD.
As expected, he was right, they were wrong and are now playing catch-up.
SFOR will be larger than WPP within a year at this rate. Won’t that make a decent headline?
All my own opinion; nothing to suggest any of the above is based on factual events (just in case WPP decide they want to sue me - they might want to get their hands on all that money I’ve made from SFOR - it’s now 25% of my portfolio and I am happy with that.
All the best
Intrepid.

It’s unlikely to be EIS ABLE. limit of €5m capital raise for that I think.
Intrepid.

Hi all.
Obvious level for next FR now declared. I’m ducking this. No faith in the concept or the BoD. Suspect they will be 1.5p shortly but depends how many of you will find the shortfall.
Intrepid.

Hey JimmyStocks.
You are welcome. Same to you. Hopefully catch up on other BBs. I’ve really enjoyed the discussions and am disappointed that (so far) my fears have been confirmed. But ‘nothing ventured…….’ Also, I’ve done pretty well with other investments that I pulled out of BIDS for earlier this year. There’s no right or wrong for me, it’s just what feels best and BIDS has never felt good since that share dump by ‘the brothers dim’.
Check out SFOR, GMR, BIRD, PRTG & XERO if you are looking for one for the bottom drawer and multi-bagging over 5 yrs. I know I’m not supposed to cross-mention but I figure this BB is exempt as there is literally no news to comment on about BIDS.
All the best
Intrepid.

Evening all.
I sold the bulk of my last holdings today. No doubt there will be an announcement tomorrow stating that BIDS has been bid for.
Let’s face it; that’s their only way out of this hole.
Facts:
1. SP heading towards 3p, having started at 6p on the RTO in Sept18. Sector and general market have risen by c 60% in that time. My own portfolio is up nearly 130% over the same period.
2. Fran and Dramp lied about the original c. £300,000 displayed as ‘income’ in the prospectus/2018 figures. They were not ‘genuine’ sales but, at best, ‘friendly’ tests.
3. Barely any further increase in deals to increase the coverage.
4. Barely any advertising being placed outside of the 6-8 weeks leading up to Xmas- anyone can sell anything in that pre-xmas period. Even advertisers will give you a go then.
5. Lack of advertising rest of the year demonstrates advertisers not taking sector serious. What do they know that we don’t.
6. Further fund-raising imminent. Likely strike-price 2p. Likely success - hmmm!
7. I won’t mention the ‘minor’ share dump by FranDram in 2019. Nice, that one.
8. We are entering the final stages of a bonkers bull run with cash flowing into everything. That will cease soon and it will become increasingly difficult for BIDS-style firms to raise any cash when the music finally stops.

I think it’s now clear that BIDS isn’t the money-printing force everyone hoped. I now think the advertising community has looked at the sector/technology and are not convinced it’s money well spend; no-one playing a game notices any of the advertising because they are busy playing the game. I mean, I can’t make out anything other than the action whilst racing around the track or shooting all those baddies. I certainly don’t think “that reminds me, I should buy a Big Mac when I next pass a Mackie-Dees.

Unless BIDS can raise £20m and also increase their gross margin from the low 20% to probably 50% or 60%, I think they will fail after this final round. Then it’s a case of finding a saviour to buy them out on the very cheap, if they are lucky.

I wish you all well and hope to see many of you on other boards.
All the best
Intrepid.

Hey all,
Don’t sweat waiting for anything else other than the final ‘no value/winding up’ notice. I have invested in several similar ‘hero to zero’ in recent years but also several ‘ten baggers’. The fun is working out which will be which.

Cheers
Intrepid.

It’s been really interesting reading all the posts over this. I love and admire democracy in action, but as one Winston Churchill once said; “the twubble with democwacy is that one can nebber be certain of the outcome!”

I’ll be very surprised if the stock is not delisted tomorrow but some on here think there is a chance. We will see. If it is delisted that’s all the value gone.

Love and peace to all. Always stand up for what’s really important - such as your liberties.
Illegitimi non carborundum, my friends, Illegitimi non carborundum!

Hi all.
Shame this did not go thru. I think the target co had a great deal of potential and even my meagre holding may have ended up as something in, say, five years.

I know many of you are posting “is that it?” The answer is ‘yes’. Don’t expect anything other than a final announcement that there is no more value or cash and that the privately listed company will be liquidated. There won’t be anything for shareholders following that as liquidators somehow manage to match their very considerable fees to the dwindling assets almost exactly. ’m writing off this one and moving on.

All the best
Intrepid.

Hi all.
What’s been baking my noodle on this one is ‘why’ would AZ hand this over to anyone else; it’s not like they don’t have the resources to carry this alone!

So, having slept on it, I’ve realised that this is a move by AZ to remove them far enough from the final product so as to bypass their pledge not to make money from the pandemic (by giving away product). By going thru NSCI they can probably claim a stake of the profits without visibly breaching that pledge.

That suits me as an answer; talk about cognitive bias!

Good luck all.
Intrepid.

Hi all.
That Lisa Hau article smacks me of someone looking to raise their own profile (NOT that of their employer) just before they jump ship.

The begging bowl will be coming around soon; stands to reason that BIDS needs to be shouting from the rooftops about every achievement it’s managed, in an effort to get the SP as high as possible; oh dear. The silence of those missing RNSs is deafening.

2p looks like the next level they will be raising at, unless Dramper pulls something factual out of the hat. I will be giving the next round a miss. I’m just not convinced advertisers believe in this as an actual channel that ‘works’.

All the best
Intrepid.

Hi all.
Did anyone else pick up on the fact that 14% of shareholders voted to NOT re-elect SMS back onto the board.
That’s must be a ****ed-off couple of major IIs. I suspect they have been given a piece of his mind back in the day and are harbouring resentment.

They have absolutely failed to understand what SMS does at the helm of the firms he runs. SFOR simply would not exist if it wasn’t for his vision and drive. Why would anyone want someone else running this show; pillocks of the first and last order.

All the best
Intrepid.

S/b ‘figures’.

Hi all.
I agree with BarnetPete re timing. Been in this since the last fund raise. It’s a slow burner (or at least I thought).

My view on today’s RNS is a bit foggy. Clearly it’s good news because it demonstrates AZ have faith in the subsidiary and, presumably the new structure/group management. But without ‘figured’ we are all dealing blind; which is always a risk.

But, essentially nothing has altered the reason I bought these so I will hold my position to see where it gets taken.

All the best
Intrepid

Hi all.
Having sold 70% of my holding after the results, I’ve today made my first purchase back. Paid 348.55 at noon today. Only a small repurchase but I’m confident that the downside has been overcooked. Jeez, these guys have nearly as much cash as their current valuation. If nothing else happens, they’ll be bought out for £6 or above.
Cheers
Intrepid.

Hi all,
Glad to see the BoD are using the current positive climate for this sector to raise some more capital. Can't say I like the 'no fees but entitled to payment equal to 15% of any uplift in NAV forever' - that's completely 5h!T3, imho. Just pay the fees and be done with it. Why should we have to burden ourselves with such a large cost on an ongoing basis. That could run to astronomical figures, given the potential here. It's not like there aren't others to broker/underwrite this. It's a hot sector and there'll be dozens of firms wanting to get involved in their 'easy money' fee-printing exercises.

I'm going to vote against the proposal simply on the basis of that open-ended fee structure - never heard anything so ridiculous. Whatever next? They will want a go on our daughters annually as well?

all the best
intrepid.

Hi lawdoc.

On paper, director sales are always presented as an indicator. I think it’s likely the price will ease back now for a period - until core non-COVID earnings both recover lost ground and push upwards from there. The lack of non-COVID activity is fully acceptable, given the whole ‘COVID/NHS/politicians careers first’ approach over the last 14 months. My guess is that non-COVID activity in the healthcare sector will have a very strong rebound as it becomes apparent the scale of the non-COVID missed diagnostics in patients to scared to visit their GP. That inevitable wave will likely re-float EKFs core earnings.
I will look to add on dips because I suspect earnings will re-rate higher than even the BoD expect.
Maybe wait for 65p on Monday morning?
Cheers
intrepid.

Sir Martin Skywalker delivers on Jedi day................................... may the force be with you all.