Member Info for IntrepidInvestor

Thanks for that link Boogles.

interesting times ahead, methinks. About time. Been sat on these since 2016 with only retraction. currently my worst performing stock (that is still listed) over the period so keen to see a re-rate on good news. I certainly like the RNS on Friday.

Hi all.
I have sat on the sidelines re this until now. Those of you who know me over at BIDS will recall my warnings when it’s founders sold some of their holding. It was a very clear red flag. Many attacked me for saying it, but I was proved correct (20p down to 3p in 3 months, at which point it was announced absolutely no sales to speak of - which those founders knew of at the time of their ‘regulated and legal’ sharesale.

My point is this; I don’t understand the mentality of a CEO selling shares in the company they control (and therefore have the most input into its performance and corresponding SP). He says it is to buy a house, but so what. There are always houses to be bought but this CEO is supposedly on the cusp of real achievement insomuch that he should be able to sell those same shares next year for 5x/10x/20x/100x [delete as appropriate to your own views] and buy the same house likely cheaper (I think we will have the inevitable house price drop once stamp duty is re-instated) but certainly for far less of his shareholding.

It simply does not make sense to me so I see it as a red flag. My view is that the CEO knows of something which is either already in the pipeline or which has the potential to derail this co. For example, the technology is proving elusive to get accurate or high enough test results on their trials - or they cannot bridge a gap to get the affirmer science to work ‘live’: who knows?

But my point is simple; even if you don’t think it is bad news, you have to agree it cannot be considered ‘good news’. So it’s a piece of evidence where we are either negative or neutral, but cannot be positive.

I have therefore de-risked on Friday and have sold enough to now be in for free. I really hope I am wrong, but I cannot ignore 30+ years of experience.
Where to put that cash?
All the best to everyone.
Intrepid

Hi ismalia
I’ve not seen/heard about that video. Do you have a link, or can point me in the correct direction?
Kind regards
Intrepid

Come on Troublesome, don’t be a killjoy.
Intrepid.

Hi.
Put me down for £11 with no further news or £21 with news. Will get to £15 before Xmas and likely pull back a bit. New run in the new year.
Intrepid

Re Diamond Horse,
It’s crystal clear (ha!) he’s not an actual trader. Probably a MM trying to influence. I fully understand the shorting process and often use the strategy myself. Shorting the Dow on 07FEB this year was a great trade for me. And that’s was the 4th time in a row I’ve spotted the market top for a short opportunity. They just seem to scream out. Bit like TSLA at the moment. However, NCYT does not hold that quality or feeling of ‘over-priced/over-hyped’. In fact it clearly has the opposite feel, to me. Given that, it is a really risky short.
However, this doesn’t mean that they won’t get ‘lucky’ and make a turn; it’s simply the risk/reward profile is too flat. The likelihood of NCYT doubling from here is strong, but of it halving? Snowballs have longer Summer vacations in Dubai.
Whereas TSLA; chances of doubling from here? Possible but not likely without strong financials and halving - very likely with any number of disruptive events (Strikes, supply or logistics issues, missing sales targets, death of CEO, increasing competition, hydrogen cell technological leap forwards, et al).
Anyway, we need people like Diamond Horse because the riskiest market is the one where everyone is in agreement.
All the best
Intrepid.

Hi WBAFC (bless!)

Define ‘expensive’ please.

You should not use that term merely in relation to the price of an individual share as it can’t mean anything in isolation.

For example, if you feel something is now ‘expensive’ because it was a third of the price a short while ago, then how did you feel when it was 100th of the current price only 9 months ago? Was that seriously cheap? Of course not. It was the price B.C. (before Covid) and now we have the current price A.D. (Anno Diagnositic).

The only way to value this is via confirmed and expected cash flows. And trust me on this, it ain’t expensive at this level.

Cheers
Intrepid.

Cheers
Intrepid.

Hi Kamakiriad,
Firstly, well done for putting a decent chunk in at the ‘difficult’ band (over £1 with no real news). That took balls.

Which suggests your risk profile is adventurous. Assuming that is correct, why not just sell enough to retrieve you original investment plus, say, a 50% return. Then hold onto the rest.

Ask yourself the following question then listen to your heart answer it;

“How long do I honestly think it will take for this pandemic to run its course?” The answer to that question (which can only be your own personal opinion) will provide you with your answer to whether you sell up or hold on, and for how long.

Me, I think governments are following a catastrophic ‘cat and mouse’ game with the virus; clamp down before any real numbers catch it, then unclamp so numbers rise again - rinse/repeat - which means reaching herd immunity will take much longer than if we just got on with life - which means testing et al required over much longer period, which means more revs for NCYT - hence why my target value is £2.9b or c £41 per share. If that’s reached within 18 months and you are still holding 35,000 of these beuts, how will you feel then?
But know this, whatever you do, you’ll be fine. There is no way these are going back down to £5, let alone £1.33.
All the best
Intrepid.

Hi ShaunP.
I a as m interested in your take on it, but am at the opposing point of view to you. I think that lady has it spot on.
We cannot best the virus, it is not a deadly plague and fear is winning the day but cash/higher taxes will have to clear up the battlefield.
My mother and aunt are both of similar age and opinions to that lady because they have seen my family & I catch it and shrug it off.
The only way we can resolve this whole mess is to shield the vulnerable (with lots of support) and let the rest of us return to normal (with lots of testing to keep the peaks flatter). Anything else just delays the inevitable ‘we will all catch this’ process and cost multiples more in future taxes. Irony is that the young are not in danger but are losing both their youth to this and their financial future to it as well. If I was young, I’d be as mad as hell right now.
Deepest respect to you.
Intrepid.

‘Pat‘, not ‘pay’

Hi 1stTimer.

I think you will need to carry out a ‘Bed and ISA’, which involves selling your non-wrapped NCYT ASAP and then investing the cash raised into an ISA account to then purchase the NCYT back within that ISA tax-wrapper.
Do it soon. Every rise misses now will cost you multiples later.
And then do all you can to use up your ISA allowance each year. That’s your most assured route to financial independence out there. It’s won’t be overnight but you’ll pay yourself on the back in 15 years time, whilst sipping your champers/****tail/Louis XIII brandy in the Ritz/Caribbean/Alps [Delete as necessary].
All the best
Intrepid

Hi Gell.
MMs cannot ‘tree shake’ this now. It will require big selling order, which means hedgies shorting. But I think NCYT has seen the hedgies off now, until just before £15. Then, there is no guarantee they will create much of a fallback. The more resilient this is to fallbacks, the quicker it will push through each psychological SP barrier. £10 took a week to reach from the RNS and a week to overcome.
This is properly on a charge to its rightful and correct valuation of £2.9b (my own view).
All the best
Intrepid.

The message is simple:

All the while it is “TEST, TEST, TEST!” then we must “HOLD, HOLD, HOLD!”

Diagnostics as a ‘must have’ business unit is here to stay. NCYT should be £15 before Xmas 2020 and £45 before Xmas 2021; based on a combination of fundamentals and inevitable 2-3 year ‘tail’ on this pandemic.
Why sell into that? What could you possibly come up with as an opportunity that is better than those likely returns? This will be a story of ‘opportunity lost’ not ‘opportunity cost’ for anyone selling at these levels.
Best regards to all
Intrepid

hi Wooddar

My advice is to remember one of the basic investing rules; cut your losers and run your winners.

I made the same mistake as you with CRM back in the day. Bought at c. $7 and sold at $21 then had to buy back in at nearly $40. Cost me multiple bags. But still one of my best ever performers.
Run this until inevitable takeover or footsie listing the-rate.
Intrepid.

Of course I do, ATB. My bad

Hi all.
If any of you ever wonder if there is anything in ‘charts’, be it ‘predictable patterns’ or ‘voodoo’, then look no further than the noise surrounding NCYT as it crosses the £10 SP.
It is a classic example of human emotions over fundamentals.
The price of an individual share is literally the last thing to consider when making an investment. On its own, an SP means nothing. Why someone would automatically buy or sell because an SP touches £10 is driven purely by their expectation that others think £10 is critical/fundamental. What should be important is not the literal SP but the value of the business compared to its fundamentals and it’s peers. However, we humans are an amusing and predictable bunch. NCYT’s SP was always going to pull back a bit from near £10 as it did last week, because it was both predictable and because some hedgies long (‘cuse the pun) for such activity and would short to make their quick (and therefore very high ‘annualised‘) returns. However, the SP of NCYT stood up to the shorting/human nature very well and clearly will push through £10 and onwards very soon. On fundamentals I think the SP should be nearer to £45 than £10, but I think we all have to see the inevitable RNSs re actual money in the bank before £45 SP/£3b MarCap are seen. I give it 18 months max. Anyone else know of another place to put you money, where there is a very strong chance of multiplying your investment by 450% in the next 18 months, in a co with proven orders/capability and cash in the bank?
.............................

I thought not.

We can now expect £15 before Xmas and another small pull back then, followed by a motoring towards £25 in the new year as the pandemic goes through its first ‘winter’ (there will be others).
Love long and happy.
Intrepid.

Hi youngbuck

Warrants are, effectively, a call option They give the holder the right to buy the underlying share at a fixed price, but not the obligation. The warrant holder chooses whether and when to exercise and they pay the exercise price at that point to the issuer (TILS in this case). This RNS is confirming that the TILS broker has exercised some warrants that it was issued previously. These were most likely issued in lieu of fees
It’s important to know that whilst a warrants conveys the right to buy a share at a set price, the holder of the warrant does not have any attached entitlements to those shares unless and until they exercise the warrant and pay for them.
This RNS, whilst mandatory, (because it enlarges the total shares in circulation and therefore affects all financial calcs), is no biggie whatsoever as it’s only 34k shares. When NCYT was getting going in March, several million warrants were exercised which the holder then sold into the market. That acted as a real drag on its SP until orders fulfilled. This transaction will barely register on the brokers accounts, let alone TILS’s.
Best regards
Intrepid.

Hi all.
An order of that size in a stock with a volatile SP would only be completed if traded off on the other side, IMHO.

Likely it was placed in-house via sales-traders and was ‘worked’ on thru the day or two until could be completed. Without that work on the order the MM would have to take it on the books. Highly unlikely that a MM has taken a short position of that size and if they have taken a long position then happy days. They think it’s going up and are closing a short or increasing a long. But I reiterate; it is most likely a worked order that will balance out to about 70-90%. No biggie. In fact great that such volume can be absorbed easily.
Have a great weekend guys. My wife’s important b/day so all good.
Intrepid.

I’ve been sitting on the sidelines with this one having invested at 4p in the penultimate placing a couple of years back. Seen it drop back 75% and now back to my start SP.
The RNS re the strategic review has ‘up for sale’ written all over it; to the extent I can’t see any other outcome. I fully expect an incoming bid soon...... to the extent that I suspect the RNS was made after initial ‘feelers’ were put out.
Question is; what value? Lots gone on recently and looks like will finally be profitable so should be a decent % uplift on current SP.
Best of luck.
intrepid.

Hi Wilson63
I agree. My view has been that processing orders/operations can only be the risk factor now, ‘over-trading’ in biz-speak. But securing the control of a major supplier helps reduce that risk. Excellent deal and a cheap ‘insurance policy’ at £10m. That’s probably not even a weeks turnover now (or very soon).
I’m slightly gutted because I almost bought some more about 10mins prior to the RNS but went for a top-up of another holding instead. But I think this is one of those deals the market won’t begin to appreciate for many months.
Onwards and upwards.
Cheers
Intrepid