Member Info for IntrepidInvestor

Hi alamo55
Good luck with that trade. I’ve added to both SFOR and NCYT last week. I suspect SFOR may drop back a tad more before the next continued rise and I will top up again. Don’t think the same can be said of NCYT. But my focus is longer term. I believe SFOR will be the better performer over the next 5 years.
All the best
Intrepid

And I’ll go out on a limb to say this could eventually see it over 400p.
Lots of interested parties and a BoD that has no defence. Could be a feeding frenzy. My view is the Caesars ‘poison pill’ is a bluff; they can’t afford not to have an online presence.
Might top up next week when the initial spike drops.
Intrepid

As predicted, others are circling. The SP will likely spike Monday morning but settle higher. Another bid would need to be >320p to dislodge the BoDs ‘recommendation’ and BetFred and Apollo both have enough shares to make getting 75% sh support at the GM pretty tough without their support and therefore the SP has to rise from here. I can’t see how this will go thru at 272p.
Cheers
Intrepid.

Hi all.
It is most likely that both Caesars and Apollo have had extensive talks with WMH since approaching, including carrying out due diligence on WMH (and visa versa).
Pricing will almost certainly have been thrashed out during those talks. My assumption is that WMH have decided they cannot crack the US without a partner and have pushed the sp to 272p with Caesars on the basis that they are already in said partnership. I’ll wager WMH suspect that Apollo and the market think the price is low, but, assuming they could not negotiate a higher price with Caesars than 272p, WMH know that the other factors will likely push the sp past the first bid price. It seems nearly everyone expects more on this and very few think WMH will remain independent.
I’m a buyer up to 310p and I think the eventual offer will be higher than 320p, which was the level indicated by Mr Market following the RNS that WMH was ‘in play’.
Cheers
Intrepid.

Hi thechancers,
It’s now news that the ‘hedgies’ are in play. They are buying up shares above the 272p offer price. This does 2 things;
1. The hedgies will develop significant holdings that will assist in voting ‘no’ to the initial offer.
2. The hedgies are effectively blocking Caesars from increasing its stake, as it is forbidden from paying over its own offer price by TO rules.
As these 2 effects both increase the chance of a ‘no’ vote, it means Caesars will have to increase its bid or risk losing sh vote and then paying hefty costs for nothing.
I think SP is 85% likely to go up from here and >5% likely to drop below 272p.
Those are fantastic odds.
All the best
Intrepid

Hi all.
Now that a ‘done deal‘ has been announced, there is still some potential gainS but not much to lose at this price.

If Apollo or a.n.other want to bid, the price will escalate. The poison pill that Caesars has (to cancel the JV with WMH) night never be taken; after all, they have stated they need an online presence and that is WMH, so if another bidder wins, Caesars have as much to lose from ending the JV as WMH. Therefore it follows their bluff could be called.
Apollo is def keen and they have flushed out Caesars with their approach. I suspect they will table a higher offer, which Caesars will have to beat. It’s a win-win position for Apollo; they can always sell their stake to Caesars at the higher level that their own offer will generate.

As for me; I think we all need to vote against it in an attempt to get the ultimate buyer to pay higher. I think there is a significant level of risk trying to ‘crack’ the US and I’m not sure WHM is guaranteed to navigate such choppy / risky waters.

Whatever happens, this agreed offer underpins the SP here at 272p, so any share purchase has that as a guaranteed floor; and I would expect there to be a ‘Hell and High Water’ clause in the deal where Caesars must pay WMH a large sum (can be in the £100m’s) that ensures WHM still a winner if Caesars do not complete for any reason.
I will buy some more and vote ‘no’ to the current deal and wait for new/alternative offer.
Cheers
Intrepid.

Hi Trendz,
I hear your pain. Perhaps you should not try to 'day trade' and just 'buy and hold' - get the right share and it's the only guaranteed way to maximise profits. Odds are always against day-trading - the house (MMs) always win over time; too many advantages. If you buy and hold and tune in periodically, life and sleep are much better.
kindest regards
intrepid

Hi all,
I have topped up today, at 567p and 520p. I cannot see this sliding back too much, given the recent RNSs. However, I do see 2 'potential' wrinkles in the whole thing.

Firstly, I really didn't like the overly legalistic manner of the res for the AGM/EGM. I habitually don't trust cos that hide behind such unnecessary legalise. I am well versed in reading EGM res but struggled to follow those.

Secondly, its all about 'delivery' in terms of manufacturing, now. That's the bottle neck and the real danger here. Fingers crossed they can deliver on all they sell (for selling is the easy bit now).

But at least real orders and sales figures are now 'on the board'. Looking forward to more RNS, particularly about the manufacturing capacity/delivery.

For the record, I am not bothered about a vaccine. Even if one were launched tomorrow (that was not Russian/dodgy as f4@k), testing would still be required in the same numbers to avoid spread prior to vaccinations. we will certainly still get 6 months of orders worldwide.

I suspect the SP will consolidate in the low/mid 500s until such time as the day-traders are out or converted to 'hold'. it's clear that NCYT leaks news as the run up on the SP was all ahead of the RNSs, so I suggest we watch upward movements to point us to new RNSs.

SO lets buy on any dips. I am waiting until 475p for my next purchase, but hoping it goes in the opposite direction way before it gets there.

all the best
intrepid

Hi Reece. I bought in the 30ps and still holding. Cashed in some at 185p to remove original stake. Bought that back at 248p. Now in for the ride.
Intrepid.

Dear all.
My view is that NCYT is now worth c. 2.5b just on that one contract with NHS/DHSC. That’s an SP c c. £42.50.

There is no ‘going back’ now. It’s a bonafide major supplier to the biggest health service in the world. NCYTs sales team will walk through open doors everywhere.

All focus now needs to be on expanding manufacturing capabilities to keep up with demand of the inevitable spikes over winter. Having had the virus back in March, I am not scared for humanity in relation to infections. We will be fine, but we need the testing to keep vulnerables as safe as possible.

Back in April, I predicted £15 SP by end of 2020. I now think it will be £25.

All the best
Intrepid.

Right-e-ho.
I have just speed-read the resolutions list. I have to say that I am very perplexed as to why there are so many resolutions beyond the usual 'we want the right as directors to buy shares/issue shares' etc etc. I can't remember the last time I read such a legalistic and long set of res for an AGM.
I get that they want to issue shares and buy back shares (which I personally always see as a red flag - it's an admission by the BoD that they can't think of anything else better to do with the company money than buy their own shares and its always (and I mean 'always') tied to directors remuneration via EPS targets and suchlike - so the directors get bigger bonuses - therefore I am not really very keen buybacks) but why make it so comprehensively complicated?

Can anyone suggest anything as to why that is? I know there is fantastic news coming out (the NHS orders for one) and I am a huge advocate of NCYT having purchased in January at 37p and all the way up to £2.50, but I have to admit I am concerned at the AGM res list. It just does not make sense to me.
all the best
intrepid

Hi all.
Been off the markets for a couple of weeks and not looked in on this NCYT Bb until today.
I hold NVCY in 2 different ISAaccounts with ii andAjBell.
I’ve received neither a notification of the AGM nor any means to send in proxiy votes.

Anyone else in the same situation? Aside from the ubiquitous resolutions on remuneration/renewing directors/auditors et al, I have no idea what is to be voted on.
Cheers
Intrepid.

‘Bidding’ not ‘Bugging’.

So the RNSs infer the BOD is about to accept. That’s a crying shame. WMH is the best placed UK operator to reap big incomes from the US market in this new period of ‘open/fair’ trade.
Caesars are bugging because they see the potential of the online biz and only have 20% of that. They want all of it.
Their offer is priced on rolling averages that are dampened by Covid-related SP drops and is not factoring in one bit of the future potential of WMH’s online activity in the US.
I firmly believe this SP will double within the next 5 years from this level; probably 3x.
We all need to reject this and I hope the BOD realises their mistake.
All the best
Intrepid.

Hi all.
Sorry not been posting. Had other fish to fry of late.
We are now in the ‘open’ period where the founders can sell a percentage of their shares, under the terms of their contracts. They both sold some last year; not quite the maximum permissible, but just short. They did try to place the maximum with no success so ended up selling into the market over a couple of days late last September.
The acid test for me is whether they sell any this year. I’m assuming the c£350k raises for each of them last year sorted out their mutual ‘personal reasons’ to the extent they don’t need to cash in any more this open period. After all, we are now only weeks away from them being able to ‘show me the money’ so clearly any founder would hold onto their shares until that seismic event has occurred and would resist selling immediately prior to it.
Best of British to you all.
Intrepid.

Hi Alamo55.

Feel I have to highlight your (rather patronising) response to my post about poss pullback on SP.

35 yrs investing as an ex-MM tells me one never knows which direction the SP will go short term with certainty, but it’s never in a straight line; there’s always peaks & troughs.
I suspect we will see 350p before soon and I’ll need to time my next topup.
To answer your question;
It looks like the SP Is pulling back because of market malaise but harder than the markets overall pullback because it’s has such a good run - I paid 106p on 17MAR20. That’s c 250% uplift in 6 months; there are not many ‘non-Covid’ stocks that can match that. So likely some profit taking.
But I suspect this drop will be short-lived as it looks and feels like the inevitable ‘panic’ and MM markdowns because of fear of another lockdown. Time will tell, of course.
Either way, I recommend you resist the urge to tells others on here they “don’t understand what’s going on” when they post a genuine question and are not ramping or knocking the SP.
Cheers
Intrepid.

Hi Natdan,

I agree 100%. Dido Harding is one of the worst CEOs ever. Her track record is 100% failure. More like Dodo Harding. Everything she leads runs off a cliff - but the mandarins now keep hiring her. You couldn’t make this nonsense up.
Intrepid.

Hi all,
Sorry if this has been discussed already but I’ve not been visiting BBs recently.
I see in the SunTimes that the 16 yr old Dance-video maker Charli D’Amelio (who has 87 million followers on TikTok!!) has announced they will now also start posting on triller.
Any thoughts? My mind can’t get around the colossal numbers.
All the best,
Intrepid.

Hi Matarakz.
I agree Marcap should be £1b+.
What’s holding the SP back is the feeling that NCYT May be a ‘one trick pony’ and COVID will quickly pass. That viewpoint/assumption is a big mistake. NVCT is now on a trajectory upwards and will likely buy others or be bought out itself (big premium) and it has the cash to develop multiple new products. We may not see these levels again, and I’m convinced we won’t see sub £3 again (my last top up was £2.55).
Intrepid.

I find myself ‘disappointed‘ re SFOR. I’ve been invested for a couple of years and it’s one of my biggest holdings. I’ve been meaning to top up again following the placing (when I last topped up). Have been waiting for the ‘inevitable’ pull-back and it’s not materialised. SP has just motored skywards at speed. Typical.
Anyone have any views on the short term likely bottom? I’m hoping sub £3.50 but think I just need to shut up and pay up.
All the best.
Intrepid