Member Info for InJamesweTrust

Interesting to see how it moves in to the close.

Seems to generate the $700m a year they need $50-55 oil @75k bopd. Interesting to focus on a 10yr figure of cash generated which requires investment from a constrained balance sheet to achieve.
Seems a little light on the costs to achieve that and then front end impact to free cashflow from the CapEx requirement. Am sure CMD will shed more light.

Oil up and markets generally beginning to start pricing end of Covid. Interesting as pre Covid they were looking nervy regardless.
I can see Total taking a stake here from Tullow for a decent consideration across this, Kanukku and their Suriname licence. With their Apache stake they would then be well positioned in the basin to do what Exxon has last 2.5yrs in drilling and working up prospects and moving to production (where merited).
Will Tullow be in position to announce by 25 Nov, guess we shall see.

Slift
Depending where they source a rig, Tullow share of Guyana drill if on Orinduik is $24m and c.$15m for Kanukku

Delays happen over the most minor contract details, finalising terms with multiple contractors is replete with difficulties to ensure all interests and bases are covered. With the dreaded second wave I'm sure there is concern around penalty clauses on delivery timelines for instance. Not serious would just need thrashed out to satisfaction of all.
Many of these businesses are faced with the choice of laying off experienced staff, warm stacking a rig or equipment lying idle if it is not used in Barryroe. For a small outlay it can be put to work on a deal that doesnt tie in all time low prices but rather gives them a share in the upside of the development. It is surely an attractive prospect for most in the current challenging environment as many will note (and be at the forefront of) the lack of investment which inevitably leads to tightening of supply and higher prices. All benefit.

Delays happen over the most minor contract details, finalising terms with multiple contractors is replete with difficulties to ensure all interests and bases are covered. With the dreaded second wave I'm sure there is concern around penalty clauses on delivery timelines for instance. Not serious would just need thrashed out to satisfaction of all.
Many of these businesses are faced with the choice of laying off experienced staff, warm stacking a rig or equipment lying idle if it is not used in Barryroe. For a small outlay it can be put to work on a deal that doesnt tie in all time low prices but rather gives them a share in the upside of the development. It is surely an attractive prospect for most in the current challenging environment as many will note (and be at the forefront of) the lack of investment which inevitably leads to tightening of supply and higher prices.

SP always going to struggle on a day like today, Aston Martin secured their future with the Mercedes deal and managed a 0.9% rise so there are certainly headwinds.
Even when there may be news, I wouldnt be surprised if stop losses were tested in the session prior to get some liquidity for the MMs.
Time will tell how discussions have gone....

Working for a bank, the issue of share ownership and wealth destruction was much discussed 10 years ago. Many had their bonuses and savings tied up in stock and took a real beating losing 90%+ their savings. A colleague at the time, Head of Bond trading informed my boss who was bemoaning the losses that he considered himself LONG on the bank already by working for them so generally sold options/bonus shares as soon as they vested to diversify.
The Audit chap may have a similar view.....and not wish to have such a high percentage of their net worth all riding one pony.

Incidentally, I note my buys are listed as sells in the trades.

Been keeping a watching brief on this and working out whether to take the plunge or not (I have now for better or worse). Taking out the Covid dip impacting all in Feb/March it seems the premium to the trading range before that is around 40% which on rumour of imminent farm out doesn't seem overdone.
It has risen significantly from March lows and there is ways the concern of another AIM pump and dump but Linn seems knowledgable and not sure the Irish govt would be involved in confirming licence etc if they didnt see a future.
The next few weeks will tell if it is a P&D job I guess but if not and they complete then it should get very interesting.
I was torn between this, Predator Oil, Synairgen and 4D Pharma - I wonder if I chose wisely!

Phoebus
Not sure they will go D4E road, as the equity value has been so badly eroded. They have £2.8bn in debt and a market cap of maybe £700m (very approx numbers from memory). More likely get production issues sorted and sell down assets further.
They have stated they want their interest 30% or less for exploration so sell down and carry here will reduce debt also. Once the seismic is regraded.
With Uganda and further sell down they can likely get debt down to £1.4bn or so and with oil price likely above $50 in 21/22/23 they will be generating cash more sustainably.

Bizter
Wonder if you gleaned anything useful from the call with Gil? Realise info.may be embargo while you right size your own position accordingly!

Simple, will they drill in 2021 with or without Tullow.
Straight Yes or No.

If Tullow cant commit to a well before then I think Total and Eco will go ahead without them. Given Tullow are seeking investment, in the form of farm down or complete sale of South Anerica/Orinduik I'm kind of curious how Rystad are so clued in? Hint, I'm not sure they are.
Given passage of time, even a Total/Eco led drill is now likely to be Q3'21 you have to think.

So they are scaling up to make 100k SNG-001 products per month in 2021. With a £290m market cap how much are these expected to sell for? Let's say £20 that is only £14m in revenues and a valuation greater than 20x prospective 2021 sales? The Chinese/Russians and others will do this generically or drive the price down on national security grounds such that profit maximization is likely to be challenging.
If they were to go global, I wonder how big the placing would be then?

Came close to buying in recently, it was above 140p and looked attractive. The news today didnt seem awful but the market has reacted like it's a bust. Surely it is not.
Some of the Forth may have been taken out but there remains a strong pipeline of news and these bio therapeutics seem to have an interesting medical future.
Intend to dip in here soon, GLA in the meantime.

Should be Payara - bloody predictive text!

Didnt take too long for the green light for this, 3rd FPSO due online in 2024

The quoted value of the IBS market at £1.5bn seems small but likely as a previous poster stated because it is an under treated condition due to absence of effective treatments. The advent of an effective treatment if found is likely to allow for strong pricing and see the market size expand significantly. Hence, it is unlikely to be fighting for a share of the current £1.5bn and more carving out it's own market size - that is quite a prize to be aiming for (and on multiple fronts).

Listened to the Tullow call, that is where the New Energy is required in their approach to exploration! CapEx will be concentrated on producing assets.
They have had many inbound enquiries and are open to offers on the portfolio and want to realise value. So a deal that gives some cash and provides some carry would be a significant win for them for their Guyana and Suriname licenses - I feel this is where the deal will be done and Total are likely off takers. It fits with their exposures elsewhere and with Apache deal this is clearly a postcode in their long term plans.
Investing and drilling now will see benefit when the lack of CapEx bites harder than the current absence of demand and oil price increases. Orinduik is then likely in a block with Kannukku and Suriname in a scrap for investment.
If a prospect looks good enough on the regraded seismic but there is no traction from Tullow or Total, I could see Eco going it alone with Africa oil on a 70:30 basis with AO carrying 50% plus of Ecos costs. They get potentially a 600m barrel field or their investment back with a 600% kicker. Hence, I think there is a likelihood of drilling next year.