Member Info for InJamesweTrust

Econsaying on Twitter Shell has a discovery that is a basin.opener.

This is now up 50% from recent lows so there will inevitably be some profit taking but the new base should be higher and positive news should take that base higher still.
Some interesting deals done by management and just takes one to hit for this to run up significantly.

With the increasing water cut, there are the eventual decom costs for Lancaster Wells and kit. However two more uplifts after January take free cash to around $200m by June and bonds are c.$70m.
Depending on OGA curve balls, HUR could be yielding close to 20% per cargo uplifted or every 6 weeks at current oil price and MCAP.
Of course at the inflection point on water cut the future value of production is eliminated and depending on AM charter may be some costs there.
Broadly looks a good buy though

That would put us around 17.2p which is not where we should be but the absence of action from Tullow doesn't inspire confidence. As buy in points go, if ever there is a drill (!!) Then prior to the bit turning it is fair to expect multiples of this price - so it does seem bargain basement.
May get to 15p or lower if market continues current ructions.

Gruvgunnar
Still hold but at less than I used to.
Likely look to add in the 20s will take alot for Canje to be a game changer for us but think eventually Orinduik can be. Needs action though

Interesting commentary from Gil, we are funded for our share of the first drill. So anything further needs the solar business to be recaptilised or a fund raise.
The investment in JHI isn't looking stellar thus far and the problems in these drills probably don't help perception of Orinduik chances after the heavy oil shock.
The drop from 180 to 120p pre the 'news' and the drop from 33 to 25p pre the news seems very clear how confidential matters are in the market. How they can't get hold of these spivs I've no idea.
At around 20p it is probably a good buy for bottom drawer hold until 2023.
Imagine sometime next year Africa Oil may look to increase their holding through a cash call and action may then be expedited as they have the funds to progress to drill on their own if they wish.

Will come down to price Tullow want. Their balance sheet is still constrained so they will want upside and full carry. They probably need to do 2 drills on Orinduik and Kanukku at c.$65m cost per licence. Cant see TQP being happy for other.operator to take Orinduik. Imagine Africa oil would be keen to sign up to a split across partners of exploration costs.
Now Tullow have said it, at least partners know what they want to progress.

Thanks all for feedback, fundamentals seem to indicate strengthening nickel price which continues to bolster project economics. Interesting indeed

Took the 691m from company presentation. Cornerstone investor will likely want 25-30% - maybe possible to ring fence to FS stage and not of the company. Will watch some Directoes videos and see. 2nd stage could obviously be incredibly profitable.

I'm just looking over the company presentation, with a €£120m/$170m MCAP and the NPV of the 1st phase being c.$691m with 3 year payback there seems to be alot already priced in. Does commencement of FS phase accelerate ability to commence PFS where the real money looks like it would come from?

With what they have learned from Tai-1, I'd expect their poring over the seismic to identify holes which may have less shelving/collapses internally. This may not be apparent from seismic easily so expect they may also pick a shallower target that gives best trap and seal prospects.

Not sure it is oversold, many have bought around 8p and may want to get their money out at that level so this may yet settle at 6 or 7p. The helium is there but would help for DM to come out and say here is the plan let's get cracking - we have learned X and are doing Y to counter it.

Nothing on AIM is a banker and shouldnt be considered such. This had decent prospects and likely still does. I've taken a chunk off the table today at a loss and will leave the remainder to ride.
Had watched them from 8p so the loss is my own fault. Getting in early to capture the climb on drill prospects is key to thwn being able to derisk these stocks and letting it ride without worry.
GLA haven't seen interview yet but DM should have been booked in first thing this morning to set record straight and get the correct message out. RNS either shoddy or deliberately vague.

Big plan

The news is simply collapsing structures have made drilling difficult but there is evidence of porosity. So mixed news but clear Helium shows. This news would always be met with dread and followed by a bounce.
Have seen other drillers with problems on the hole wall and it isnt the end of the road.
There are still options for next drills.

Just read transcript of Friday interview, the phrase, "With drilling nearing completion and testing about to start at Tai-1 we are in a position to begin talking to end users to fast track a production solution."

Paraphrasing slightly but that seems to have a strong background message to me.....

Seagulls fan
If the current prospect derisked is 133p, is this based on 2% assumption? If the percentage is higher, presumably we might expect a similar increase in the value applicable to the derisked prospect.
Tail is 33p share unrisked so we are almost at that now. However, if the percentage of HE is greater then it maybe atb6% Tai1 is worth 99p and the derisked wider value is 350p.
In that event I would expect the price to settle somewhere between the two values one can extrapolate from the percentage/derisked Tai value. Given 10% at surface and 2% in the mud then finding an area that has a trap and seal should have a strong concentration....
GLA

Phoebus
Joe and Jethro net to Eco were less consequential than the field read across which is what took us to 170p in my view (such heady days!!)
I do wonder if the benefit of the tie up for Sapote is the potential to be involved in discussions around FID and ability to blend output from Joe/Jethro. Think distances are too great for tie back to FPSO though and not sure how the sulphur runs through a pipeline.
Good to see a handy rise though

Joshwaa
In the event this well is successful, there will be a step change in company value and hence capital available. So ramping up drilling if they wish should be entirely in their gift.

Interesting TA but hope fundamentals see us firmly above 37p when end of next month comes around :-))

Has anyone considered Bronte hold a long position but have taken a short to protect from downside? Are they reporting a net short position or just short position?
Either way, as another poster says they are in the markets and therefore required to take positions in trades to make their bonus. They will be marginally more right than wrong if making a profit....

Imagine there is an abundance of caution initially for the geological formation before casing and now since the drill bit. Equally (and stand to be corrected here) the drill equipment may not represent the latest kit.
Drilling 30m a day since the bit loss took them back to 480m should put them at around 850-900m now and towards the pay zone .
They may have stopped to log other potential zones on the way down to understand the geology so may take them a bit longer. However, a dry hole would hopefully be evident by now.
Think DM said the red sandstone wasnt considered target zone initially and this extends to 650m so they need to get past this to test the main pay zone.