Member Info for InJamesweTrust

@SeagullsFan
Agree the upper reach has quite some potential for the SP and it could reach some dizzying figures depending on results and percentages. General theist being in a success case then funding shouldnt be a concern and fitting ESG in this new corporate funding age makes life alot easier.
Debt generally preferable but as with HUR caution required in case of surprises on production. So dilution not always bad.

If there is a commercial Helium find, it is probably fair to assume the SP would 3 or 4 bag giving a Market Cap of c.£500m. In such a case, raising $50-70m should not be so challenging. I should imagine this would qualify for ESG on the E and the S as it extracts helium without by products in O&G and provides societal improvement to Tanzania.
Hence, bank funding may even be possible for O&G teams looking to greenwash their books and diversify.
Although it didnt end so well, HUR raised $300m from a similar market cap for a much more geologically questionable field.

Given the announcement yesterday and the unexpected zone they hit, albeit with a sub par seal I wonder if this is something to test or it is just a push deeper to the main targets monitoring the chromatography as they go for other.pay zones.

Blautix addresses aspects of market not currently catered for and hence size of market may be even bigger as covers both types of IBS for some level of relief if memory servers correctly. One side of market not previously found a treatment and as it can be used across types may become a treatment of choice.
Probably 100m people in US and Europe impacted by condition so market size is huge as it is for so many of the trials. Price relative to peers remains a conundrum but allows time to keep adding and await results across their portfolio.
Seeing some recognition of potential to top slice post a rerate would be great but it may just be a blockbuster one day instead. Not fortunes invested so if it doesnt turn out not end of world.

138bcf is 138m thousand cubic feet. Price mer thousand cubic feet is $280
So for the field it is 280 x 138m is $38,640,000,000
Unless my maths is out
Of course such numbers are crazy as any value will be heavily discounted back and not reflect the full price per mcf. It is indicative of the potential and Treks £5 aim is about one eighth of the potential field value on a long term revenue basis.
A DCF would be a good bit lower than the headline figure of course and this needs to be further discounted for market/project uncertainty.

The potential value for Eco remains in Orinduik not 1.75% after expensive warrants of Jabilo, these do not need to be exercised before Sapote I dont think.
So the dilution over where we were at 23p two weeks ago isnt terrible so takes us to 21p - hence anything below that is a good in for the Orinduik drills when they happen.
Seems market maintaining perspective so far

Glad this gave a few people a laugh, came across it many years ago when it trended and thought it apt given DM referencing it yesterday.
His reference was a confident one and seems positive as od his demeanour. Interesting next 10 days or so. GLA

https://www.albany.edu/faculty/miesing/teaching/assess/hell.html

Think Gil is due in London shortly Covid permitting to do the rounds probably as results comes out. If not there already.
The initial price paid is at least an.option for both wells but only a smaller upfront payment. We end up.paying a chunky price per barrel but it may be that in event of a successful discovery it is an interest that can be sold and Eco/Africa Oil can drill with TQP and cut Tullow out of Orinduik.
If Jabilo is successful the further subscription makes sense but is not required to be done for some time yet as I recall. The info from the drill will likely help for Orinduik too.

They were at 70m last week and from somebody's previous post, the first part of the drill takes the time to ensure all cemented and robust. So a week later if they have done another 2-300m fair enough. Last week they said it would take 3 weeks to know.

DM indicated that gas shows at 70m are likely indicative of traps further down but advised it would be 3 weeks until they know from my reading of the Proactive investors transcript. So hope of an RNS this week seem a bit premature.
We're already at £150m plus market cap for exploration which is chunky. Fair to expect people to derisk if nervous.

So if they are only paying $10m upfront it isnt terrible. However, to get 10% of JHI they need to pay $30m once subscribed to the warrants. That will give them 1.75% of the field so puts a value on the field of $1.7bn. So they are paying $2 a barrel.
Seems a bit toppy to me just to get some action.
Equally, paying this seems to indicate there is not much happening with Tullow and our own block. I'd be alot happier if Africa Oil were putting $30m down to drill 2 wells with Eco and Total on our block.

The biodegrading is what makes it oil heavy. The bacteria and other substances are more likely closer to the surface, hence the shallower Terriary prospects brings heavier on ours and Exxons licences. Still waiting on the economic analysis of the Heavy Oil.

If the bonds are due in 12/13 months and net free cash is c.$100m. Then at $55 oil HUR can generate $130-145m and at $60-65 oil appreciably more. The G&A at HQ should be relatively minimal now so it begs the question is pulling the trigger on the bond default being done too early?

There are potential resources there clearly, it comes down to how partners would be monetized /incentivised. The majority of SpotOn equity kicker would/should go to partners. If (and it remains an if) Linn has access to these partners, there is a feasible package on the table. Back ended reward suits them as they have enough kit and expertise under utilised in current market, they have done it in other projects.
If that part of the funding could be secured the Bond should be reasonable to get away. Now, if SpotOn had progressed the first part should not be too difficult and the company would move to the second part quickly.
Time will tell.

Ranger
My post suggests nothing of the sort.

Ranger - you seem to have similar traits to someone who used to post on the Hurricane board and was banned from LSE for abusing the rules.

With an extension to end of April, there is no requirement for an update @ end of March

Renewables are certainly useful in the mix but not solely the answer for now. Certain Sharepropheys commentator thinks much of the EV chargers will be carbon fuel powered with oil/gas for instance. Wind and wave is not 100% reliable so the grid needs failsafe capacity that can come on stream. The need for this dictates it should form part.of the energy mix just from an efficiency perspective so fossil fuels arent dead (again) yet.
The government I dare say want to see a functioning finance deal in place prior to authorising as may feel there would be egg on their face. If funders are there then I dare say assurances would be given and the contracts will be contingent on such in any case.
Clearly there is risk, if Alan Linn cant demonstrate diligence of the involvement/engagement of Aker etc with SpotOn then he would have breached his fiduciary duty to shareholders and/or be close to.making fraudulent statements. He doesnt strike me as such an individual.
I cant find it.on Twitter but think the same commentator above who mentions powering EV chargers conventionally also bought in here. Do not know if he still holds.

The saga does continue, people are invested in full knowledge (I hope) of the risk the financing may not come to fruition.
If it was me in this market and I was faced with the choice of teasing more from the bond market to be free of operation restrictions arising from Export Credit Guarantee then I would absolutely choose this.
No clarity this is the case however and if GEIK have asked for too much and they have had to go back to increase bond appetite that would take some time.
Again, assuming the consortium are doing so. It would fairly easy for Alan Linn to be seriously punished if there were no evidence of due diligence regarding SpotOn contacts with proposed service providers. It is AIM but one should assume the NOMAD/Accountants would check this also.