Member Info for InJamesweTrust

So after 10yrs and probably £75m in salary and bonuses Antonio will toddle off with a share price 40% of where he started. Not a bad gig for him, a ****show for shareholders.

Joey1998
Thanks that is very useful. I've been a bit time constrained so will take time out to read the referenced doc. Think there are some interesting potential catalysts here near term and if Irish cash requirement is at least 12 months away, the company has time to minimise/negate any impact from this.
Seems a good opportunity.

Does the Irish gas possibility create a funding need for the business and if so possible dilution? Seems a full carry in thisn climate may be difficult and seems unclear how it may be funded, accepting the reduced cost due to benefit of existing infrastructure.

Shame for Dr T to leave under these circumstances but a long overdue change. My concern from reading the RNS is the revised CPR will model all eventualities, including a shallower Oil Water Contact. I wonder how much shallower......and what that means to overall modelling

Looks like a really tough road back from here for HUR. This will raise.per barrel output cost significantly and impact cash. If it is a long term issue the bond cannot be repaid without oil hitting $100.and staying there for 2021/22 at 10k.bopd.
Trice needs to throw the dice, drill a step.out and do.the subsea now, is the rig still.under contract?

I can see the next leg in markets being a significant downwards move, as the reality settles in that Q2 and Q3 GDP are likely to be horrendous, it will begin to dawn that businesses will fold rather than keep paying rents for empty stores/restaurants.
This has an impact on REITs, Banks, economic activity and torpedoes the idea of a V-shaped recovery. If this is a cycle of lower lows it is going to get uglier than the Elephant Man out there.

It was actively stated by interim CEO, farming down exploration to 30% or below, they need a carry due to balance sheet constraints.

Phoebus you seem to be over your disappointments.

Still a long(ish) road to drilling, unless Total wish to act quickly to secure the farm in and take advantage of drilling costs. Dare say some rigs could be in demand for capping wells too in this market.

Very Africa focused, both in prior experience and also in his initial statement.

Might not be at the low yet, what price once storage is full and there aren't many tankers left? They wont be able to give it away.....with lockdown continuing in various forms most places in to May and the consumer behaviour rebound likely to be slow the supply/demand imbalance looks set fair to continue to me into early Q3.

.....what rig rates are right now if partners weren't financially challenged. See Total is looking for an €11bn revolver according to Bloomberg.

That is the risk of exploration and the reason to spread ones risk across a number of fronts. We're down as much as 88e from our peaks too.
Steady as she goes here should see some great opportunities in 2021 with a head of steam building once drills are confirmed. A decent Tullow farm out would be a healthy catalyst too.

With the debt facility renegotiated, I wonder if Tullow is now 'in play'? Legacy can run the debt down and the potential at Kanukku and Orinduik can be picked up for literally 10c on the barrel as a cash outlay.

If you go to investors tab, then documents and circulars it is in there.

Noix
The CPR should be linked via the RNS still which updated it post Joe and Jethro. It hadnt incorporated Carapa or the technical high grading exercise being done by the partners which may render some of the info redundant.
I'm sure I still have a copy of the 4bn barrel CPR if not the 5bn one if you have specific questions on data points?

Second multi stacked discovery for Apache and Total in Suriname. Makes you wonder if we'd had an operator that wasnt completely skint where we would be!

Note the noises around negative oil price continue, the current low cost has a flip side of making alternative energy sources relatively more expensive. Exxon have a great deal invested in the success of Guyana and to be able to lock in assets with little E&P uncertainty after drilling has occurred should be attractive.
The current malaise will ultimately lift, maybe by the summer but more likely later in the year. The bigger companies will see the subtle changes in physical market and think about where they need to be positioned for the upturn, possibly before things become 'expensive'again.
Should be some interesting deals done in the next year, imagine rig rates will remain rock bottom as the more highly speculative drilling remains on the back burner.

Noix
Not really, I'm saying £2.00 a share would be incredibly cheap in the event of finding light sweet oil in the Cretaceous as it would place a value much less than exploration cost on the assets.
Let's be honest, it is a slightly different world out there now than 6 months ago in ways none of us anticipated.

If there is oil then £2.00 a share is only $0.65 a barrel which is alot cheaper than finding the stiff $2-6 a barrel.

Many think that when one Shale firm goes bankrupt, somebody else will sail in and take over. However, the non-shadow banking world is taking a dim view of fossil burning industries and if they have already take a hit (most deals will be syndicates involving multiple banks) then they're credit appetite will be severely curtailed.
So you are then in to more shadow banking/fringe funders (PE/HDDGIES) and they might want more clarity on a 3-5yr exit plan than the market currently offers.
Hence, some shale production once it drops may not quickly ramp up and be acquired cheaply by a major for some future point to replenish reserves.