Member Info for InJamesweTrust

Wouldnt put it past Trump to threaten withdrawal of troops but there is an unspoken bribe to US/UK via military sales.

Wallact
Sorry, wasnt aiming anything personally.
The development of heavy oil is definitely a plus and the prospectivity of the licence is not in question for most here.
The negativity of the journalism is frustrating when it will make such a difference for Guyana.

That is the laziest, stupidest journalism. Do they suggest Exxon do not state the tail risks from exploration. These are the unmitigated impacts of an extremely low probability event and make no.mention of the steps taken to mitigate.

This morning Russian TV is saying Corona is a US disease spread by special forces in Wuhan!!

Marcel
Only 40% of the portfolio is hedged in 2021 at a lower price than the 2020 hedge. Consequently their P&L will struggle to produce the cashflow required to meet their various debt repayment commitments from 2022 onwards, particularly if further work is required in Ghana etc.
Their best route to raising value from Orinduik/Kanukku is drilling early in their 2021 budget.
Some have said they need to package this to get a debt facility, but undrilled Eco share of this is currently valued by market at about 2 cents per barrel, so even the 3bn barrels plus Tullow has would not yield significant debt funding without drilling being conducted.

Marvin
12-18 months, if Tullow doesnt drill in that time they are bust as it is the game changer that moves the value needle in their portfolio. Even in a bear market there is value in 2.4bn barrels (Tullows share) that can be on stream when record falls in investment leave production gaps into the upswing, when it eventually comes.
Not making any predictions on that eventuality.

Looking at ADVFN and it is always disturbing/surprising how much people seem to enjoy what they perceive to be other peoples misery if facing a loss on investment price.
People targeting Proselenses formpayong 25p when he/she has clearly stated it is a 12 month hold.
Quite sad really.

Wellwell
Best of luck, you're knowledge of ops will be missed by many on the board I've no doubt. All th best in the crazy current world.

EAS10
Think you're the one who's mental if suggesting the market correction does not provide buying opportunities. May.not pick the bottom (dont think it has arrives yet) but likely in 2021 at some point there will be a different view from markets.
Eejit

Carl Icahn seeking control of Oxy.
Market activity starting to see the value investors come to the fore.

Is the MCAP not quite close now to cash at hand (not forgetting the bonds). What a mad world.

Phoebus
This is a time to look through the maelstrom to the other side and unless the world is going to stop using oil in the next 6 months, then 2021 will look very different to now.
What it does (or will do) is present some great buying opportunities if folk pick the right stocks.
Looking at Premier and Tullow, non majors without debt in the oil space are probably best!!!
Good luck all.

Zero chance of force majeure being triggered on swap contracts. Banks could be taken to court and claimed to be in default which would cross default everything. Imperative to stand behind such contracts as an industry, Greece default didn't even make it to ISDA definition of default.

If that is what transpires then I see it being net positive. Without losing too much, Tullow could cut debt in half from Uganda/Guyana proceeds.
If they got 50c on the barrel for Guyana that would underpin us at a much higher level also. Need the right player to look through at the opportunity and plenty must be capable of such clarity of vision even in such volatile environment.

Happyinvestor100
50c a barrel is a fire sale price given the prospectivity of the surrounding area.

The market may be completely screwed right now but there should be good news coming here. A decent sale price in Uganda might yield $1bn. Total paid $2 per barrel for Apache licence in Suriname.
30% of Orinduik is potentially 1.2bn barrels and even at a quarter of the Apache transaction funds Tullow for 6 or 7 drills and leaves $400m for other purposes.
That potentially reduces the debt by half before year end possibly significantly increases reserves which doesnt seem like a bad outcome.

Likely to be a consideration of cash and carry for their stake. Negotiations may result in timelines being broadly similar though.

Tullow targeting 30% ownership pre-drill so half their share in Orinduik is up for sale it seems.

The eurozone aspect is a really interesting one, if they abandon stability and growth pact some of the increased spending inevitably is structural so Italy, Greece and others likely to find it incredibly difficult to return to previous terms.
That will obviously displeased the Germans and Nordic/Benelux countries and could lead to some major arguments.

Wonder how long they've been planning on going nuclear against OPEC? With the $30bn proceeds of Aramco IPO they can lose money per barrel for quite some time - although with an extraction cost of $6 is it few can compete. Their public spending deficit could balloon out of control though. If Russia needs $35 to break even I wonder who the capital markets will make blink first.
Some crazy times.