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I wonder if the calculation takes the reduction in facility headroom as a positive or at least neutral in the calculation as it reduces potential calls on assets in event of a default.
Will need to look back over but Tullow presentation did not countenance a default under the RBL until mid-2021 at the earliest. I dare say they know the terms of their lending and how to calculate.

Given the recent Kosmos deal with Shell, it is feasible Tullow could farm down Orinduik, Kanukku and Suriname. If they were able to achieve this successfully, there would be cash and some carry. The Apache deal in Suriname is a useful guide also - although undertaken when oil price was more favourable.
Aiming for drilling in these postcodes through a level of carry is one of the few ways to demonstrate real portfolio value if successful, if it then they are in the same be calmed position as before waiting for massive equity dilution or default.
For me, management would have little option but to pursue a strategy that gives the best chance of avoiding this, their duty after all is to the shareholders in protecting value.
Alas is it set up for the major shareholder to inject further cash to cure the default and extract the full value of the company relatively cheaply if such action is not taken? For now, I feel the value in Guyana exposure may be less risky in Eco, they at least could use Africa Oil money to drill in partnership with Total if Tullow remain lame ducks. Doing so takes Tullow out of that field unless they pay 600% of sunk costs to buy back in.

Phoebus
I'm not sure a debt for equity achieves much, unless they begin to then invest in exploration. They have clearly signposted default risk if they cant demonstrate adequate liquidity for 18 months from Arpil 2021. The way to do that is cash and carry on Orinduik/Kanukku licences. I can seen them farming down to 20% on Orinduik which would give Total/QP a handy percentage to come in and drive it. Or with a eye to a future deal with Eco, a major chance to get controlling interest in a potentially large field.
Good news on Kosmos farm out in Namibia.
I think Tullow will want the reprocessed seismic quickly to confirm representations they have made to potential suitors.

Tullow results a bit of a **** show, perhaps not unexpected. Perhaps finally management there will look at Stabroek and try to see if they are sitting on a golden egg in Orinduik. With a market cap of $40m, any sort of value they get to carry them in drilling will reflect more value than Eco market cap represents and drive activity in our own SP.

Definitely good news, need to go back and look at migration and source kitchen. Article fro. Ian Cloke of Tullow from June.

https://theenergyyear-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/theenergyyear.com/articles/a-time-for-top-tier-exploration/amp/?amp_js_v=a3&_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15996018130039&csi=1&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&_tf=From%20%251%24s&share=https%3A%2F%2Ftheenergyyear.com%2Farticles%2Fa-time-for-top-tier-exploration%2F

All oil companies have their battles to fight and get portfolios ready for the next price cycle. Total and Tullow have both been making changes.
Eco (and or Total) can proceed solo or bilaterally cutting out the non participating partners. However, the salient recent news is the regrading of the seismic targets with the data from Suriname, Orinduik and Kanukku. This will likely drive farm in and drilling activity but probably deeper into Q4 or Q1 next year.
Exxon recommencing drilling will allow an EIA to be completed more swiftly and post farm in things might be expected/hoped to move fairly quickly towards drilling the best targets. Some of which I hope are in Orinduik!!
Chatter from Gil isnt going to move the needle much right now I wouldnt imagine.

Eco Atlantic

Dive centre
Genuinely had in my head next year, hence the caveat.
Believe it is uncertainty around them and the wells driving the SP.

MCAP of £90m with enterprise value of £350m plus when bond debt is included. These are due for payment next year are they not? I'm pretty sure the bonds sit above the equity in a priority waterfall so that is the key concern.
12k bopd at $45 should yield another $90m in free cashflow but doesnt get close to repaying the bonds.
Due date for bonds I'm doing from memory but even another full year would barely get HUR over the line and that doesnt include CapEx commitments to maintain licence.
If they can pump for another 10 months they may be able to get bonds or funding but my guess is it would be short term(ish) and punitive.

Upstream Onlone reporting Tullow has inked a contract with Stena for drilling Goliathberg-Volksberg in 2021. Given proximity would expect action in Guyana to be linked.

If Tullow can engineer a good farm out with some cash and a carry here and Kanukku then good drilling outcomes could see them escape such a fate. Will depend on the annualised and ongoing production rate elsewhere in the portfolio.

Looks positive, I'm guessing Tullow will want this done for the farm out to incorporate the Kanukku light oil and Apache success into the model. Seismic historically has taken quite some time but this budget may be for access to the Total supercomputer so perhaps results in Q4 which would be minimum timeline for a farm out from Tullow for me now as cant see it before this is complete.
Does bode well for drilling activity next year.

Dont think RT was ever aiming to mislead, he always stated production was needed to confirm accuracy of the model. It seems to have proved the model optimistic.
The bonds need to be repaid so cash needs to be conserved.
17k bopd gross sounds like pre waree cut so sounds like production was down before shut down....

Good result from Apache, if 278m then it is huge, although note it is stacked so may have intervals but still impressive. If I get some time I'm .indeed to review the CPR and presentation again but the idea oil has missed our acreage is unlikely in so.propsective an area and with oil above.
Lower down the degradation that causes the oil to sour is less prevalent I believe so hopefully similar to Exxon experience of Tertiary versus Cretaceous.

As their hedges expire, they will be under increasing pressure to raise funds and agree farm outs. Total can afford to wait and I would never under estimate the ability to grease the palms of politicians to ensure the right outcome ensues in such a farm down.
As and when a deal is done the drilling will happen fairly quickly but a farm down may not be until Q4. The trading update last year was more around operational assets and not much on Guyana from memory.
Think they have another update for half year in mid Sept.

Maverick
I think we are all saying the same. Seeing them back in the teens is fine for further buying opportunities though.

Dont think Tullow will provide budget updates until much later in the year. With their ongoing problems elsewhere and until they know commitments with Repsol it is unlikely to be clear until Q4.
FWIW- I think if Tullow cannot commit, Eco ca proceed either with Total or with Africa oil and drill a proposed target. Africa oil would likely be interested in such a proposition. In event of success Tullow can buy back in but would pay handsomely for doing so making the risk reward attractive to Africa Oil.

Most likely the re grading of prospects is the starting point for farm out negotiations. Hence, these will be kicking off maybe around now. The Tullow CEO needs to get feet under the table and understand the value so they can build their ask - how much carry.....
The Total deal with Apache in Suriname is a model but terms are very unlikely to be as generous in this environment and with the initial heavy oil. Oh to get 5mins with the Tullow genius who proposed drilling Tertiary first!
2021 drill is good and if Exxon are drilling again, there is an EIA we can piggy back off by using similar info/consultants. If Farm out is completed this year then drilling in H1 2021 would be very welcome after more than a year of inertia.

Trading statement and ops update is 29 July and half year results in Sept. Budgets prob up in air a bit until shape of recovery is clearer but looks like China is beginning to motor which should push commodity prices.

Price suits fine. Tullow will drill or Eco will find a partner to do it with at risk. Once Tullow farm down the price will move but hopefully a couple of months away yet as keen to get more at these levels and below if opportunity presents itself.