Member Info for InJamesweTrust

AdUK The beauty of it is, that the company is clearly saying to the wider O&G community (even if the market is not picking up on it) we can prove this up ourselves and the more we do the higher up the value curve the assets will move. Doing the drill potentially makes a huge difference on data for interference testing etc. Depending on timing (and sucess) of FOIL there could be quite a drilling war chest come next Summer. I still think as risk gates are complete a mid tier or NOC will decide to make some sort of buy now pay later bid to get in on the assets but what Do I know I thought we'd have a partner by now!

JoeSoap We may be diluted but we likely wont be asking them to convert on increased terms so we can clear the decks for more debt. The revenue could provide a cushion for a Senior facility to fund LinWick EPS in part and allow redemptions also (cash is fungible so whether it or cashflow is used for redemptions or drilling to prove resource is neither here nor there). Will we get to such a stage, if the oil flows I doubt it. A DST or two on Halifax and a drill of Lancaster outer reaches which can be capped for later connection to FPSO seems a sensible way forward to then let someone come in and take on LanFax while HUR continue with LinWick. Divi the LanFax proceeds (net Linwick EPS costs plus some drilling) or share buy back depending on preference and start process again for EPS to flow 2020. Jimo/dyor etc

AdUK/Haggistrap From a realisation perspective, the market should reduce the discounts applied as the risk gates to EPS are ticked off which should (the market isn't always rational) lead to incremental rises in the SP. Full value realisation - I think the reference to the range of the FPSO for a new well is not accidental in the recent update. I'd envisage the seismic has been analysed and when funds/ops permit the company is ready to drill a Lancaster outlier as a 3rd producer as close to the LanFax border as they can - perhaps even over it to prove more of the concept. As LanFax is proved up additional drilling on Lincoln and Warwick would take place and could actually see them doing another EPS there while selling off LanFax. Lets up the RF to 40% and you have a joint field of 3.5bn for LanFax. What price this as 2P........ With $70 oil and $25 OpEx (presuming CapEx is covered by revenue) 30,000 bopd with 85% uptime gives a healthy revenue figure ($465m free cash per annum) to go with the additional data. It is actually a very eloquent solution to the production question - how to increase without putting too much pressure on the wells and I imagine incredibly cost effective. As per my other post a moment ago, it is by no means a shoe in that it all goes to plan but this would be a good way to conduct ops to get the best value from the fields.

JoeSoap The parallels start and end at the companies having convertible bonds. Premier is saddled with debt while Sirius remains yet some distance from being revenue producing. HUR though, should be producing material cashflow within 12 months (if they aren't the bonds will be the least of our worries) and the cashflow is such that if HUR desired they could redeem any bond holder wishing to convert. Additionally, if the EPS is producing the cashflow the shareprice will likely have but a distant relationship to the conversion price as it will have gone a significant way to providing assurance on the Fractured Basement strategy and hence the commerciality of a large chunk of 2C (by my reckoning most of Lancaster and some of Halifax will be ripe for conversion to 2P by mid next year through drilling a 3rd well at the outer technical reaches of the FPSO range). Not only this the va;ue ascrived to the 2C would be significantly greater than is currently the case. This is not a blind ramp as I mention if we don't prodcuce the oil, we don't produce the revenue but barring the real disaster like scenarios we are not in the position of Premier/Sirius.

WT If you set up a Twitter handle, there is a Tweeter with the moniker Upcomingdrills who provides updates on companies drilling plans in AIM. You can also search for other people's thoughts on HUR or other AIM O&G co's you.may have an interest in. Good luck with the endeavours.

Wellwell The point of the board is to have open debate, so for my own two pence worth please don't crawl back anywhere as what you've got to say is valuable and comes from a position of knowledge. It certainly helps a non-techie like me grasp the risks a bit more (even if I may come across as an ardent fan boy) and makes me think about how to structure/approach decisions accordingly.

Us bankers are easily fooled! Amazing how storing that for show can get the gossip going and achieve the short term look of a result. Don't think that is the intention here. As previously indicated my own intention is to hold closer to FOIL and then recycle some elsewhere and leave the rest to ride the buckaroo while keeping a weather eye (geddit)on developments.

Wellwell Have heard alot of.people say burn the bankers but not Bankers burn - do tell?

Pijoe Always risk in everything hence the need for data. However, with a 6.4k bopd flow rate and the ESP if required even 12k bopd at $60 oil is going to be give a strong bottom line for the company. There is a risk it fizzles out in a month but based on volumes in place modelled and seismic acquisition which has dictated the positioning and direction of the wells drilled they have done what they can to mitigate these. Nature can still be a cruel mistress - just ask Repsol currently!

Why it shows 36p at start of trading!

Given the snow has just cleared last week and the jet stream hasnt been playing ball it may just be that installation has been deferred until it settles somewhat. Yes the AM is in Q3 and thepresentationnsays end of Q3 but that could be any time from mid-August. There is unlikely to be 4 months of work remaining be done one her as she would then have been in Dubai for a year! This is more RT hedging against Shaw making the completions work run over and he has said all along H1 for oil. I'll be astonished if AM is not on site and hooked up in Sept '18. If it is H1 for FOIL them fair enough. The SP will retreat a bit as people move on but doesn't change what's under the sea.

SotB Haha certainly not trying to take it downnplentynof flex and still make FOIL this year. Think Shaw has made them tighten the AM sail away but with a mid May start by PBLJ she could set sail July and still be hooked up in Sept giving almsot 2-3 months for any SURF/Subsea work after well completion on critical path to be complete. These two are obviously key to a 2018 FOIL which means the data is there end Q1-19 and funds are there to do further appraisals.

Any word from those in the know on timings here?

Just be an interesting dilemna for TOTAL on whether to farm in or buy out given MCAP. Ignoring premium required for take out MCAP is 30% higher than the farm-in values the licence and with the other prospects being there it is a quandary I'm sure. Saw something a couple of weeks ago commenting on potential of the various blocks in terms of value if drills are successful but can't find now. Wonder if anyone can point me towards.....as Google hasn't helped much. Thanks in advance if you can.