Member Info for InJamesweTrust

Think Malcy is essentially confirming he has an interview on the books with Robert Trice soon. Think someone mentioned this will be prior to the AGM to give good news on the rig/FPSO.....

They bought Forties pipeline which turned out to be a mess. Guess Jim probably wanted to frack some.of the spent fields and see if he could make them work and have a cheap delivery mechanism.

extrader Working on the premise that the EPS is a success I guess one then has to consider the next steps. Many have commented on the crippling cost of an FFD but personally I (along with others) think there are ways around this - namely an IFD. HUR can fund an IFD organically to potentially produce sometime in 2020 but more likely 2021. Also, undertaking such an option means we are not at the mercy of majors dangling the sword of funding over our heads in any negotiations. Having an independent path available is useful to us and potentially to any bidders to plug into a model (reduces cash commitments and increases Return on Capital expended). Think of a 6/8/10yr production cashflow with an 120k bopd FPSO and 85% uptime. Using a $35 a barrel cashflow that is $1.3bn p.a. to add to the $2-300m coming from the EPS. Instead of anything as complex as the LASMO structure, HUR could maintain an operational interest in fields once sold. To prevent a PMO/RKH situation they could also mandate a pay to play scenario where there is an upfront payment for the option to develop fields and a timeline in which the option must be exercised including key stages with penalties including option expiry for failure to meet. Ultimately it seems a pipeline may also be needed to deal with gas but this can likely be funded for one of the GWA/GLA structures with capacity built in for the other generating cashflow to the pipeline developer. Someone like INEOS may be interested in such an offtake opportunity depending if gas can be used. Alternatively, an INFRA fund or development fund may get involved for a long term cash stream. For me, I'd like to see FOIL in 2018 with cashflow used to fund drilling on other fields to prove as much as feasible along with funding IFD long lead items. Prove the link to Halifax and develop the IFD plan. Delineate and prove up the GWA to get the barrels up the reserve curve as far as able. Sell the GLA one of three ways, in its entirety with a kicker on CPR uplift/production beyond a certain level or with a payment and carry on IFD/FFD or just clean sale. Then use funds to develop GWA (with or wihthout partner) and take the income stream. For those preferring an early monetisation, the stock should reflect the value created from the actions listed so the opportunity to sell should be there. The timelines for the above are the key for many, how quickly could any such plans be achieved versus a sale on the value uplift from EPS in Q3 next year..... Now anyone else can tear it apart.

Pijoe is your model still saying entry point in the 20's and are you holding out for a return there?

I think I may have mentioned it last week Biffadog. For me the target for FOIL is still inside Q3 and I think news on AM and rig will be with us before the AGM.

Cebo :-))))))

The May investor roadshow may have been undertaken to minimise such sales upon conversion. Alot can be said a these things that can't be printed.

SonoftheBull Even better news!

SonoftheBull Good news indeed if that is the case. Given the Zennor contract following ours I wonder if she will take a week out for a quick check and be on way to WofS around the end of the month? Completions potentially done by mid July if that is the case? If only we had an FPSO en route to the field for August.....

Extrader Agreed - it should be planned for and ideally not required but good to have in back pocket even If it uses 4-6 weeks of EPS cashflow to be ready for Q2-2020 hook up.

AdUK This seems a bit of a volte face in that now you agree but I'll roll with it. Some may be renowned but am not sure the CFO is! The handshake is a potential nod to brinksmanship previously. Also if one pieces together comments made from Bob D and his head of North Sea then we are a fairly big blob on their radar. However, he has to extract value and if doing that means a bid undervalued the assets compared to our value as a bigger producer it may not be the right decision. Let's look at the BoD though with c.42m shares from the VCP and likely more to come how willing will they be to tell BP to jog on at £3 a share in 2019 compared to £6/£7 or more in 2020. Yes I know these values seem pie in the sky relative to the SP today but converting huge volumes of 2C to reserves not contingent resources and creating significant cashflow can re-rate the SP to a magnitude of multiples. Not a prediction but the potential is there and should be considered.

As an addendum to my earlier - on a very simple model $225k per day cashflow from day rates would be sufficient to pay off an 85% LTV bank facility on a brand new FPSO in about 9.5yrs. So the operator has a pretty sweet asset i Yr10 for an intial $100m outlay. The rest of the day rate (between $300-400k) is in actual operational expenses. These vessels can process up to 200,000 bopd and store 2m barrels.

Proper planning prevents **** poor performance Hence, presuming a bid will come in post EPS is an error I hope the board are not making after it seems presuming the FO/FI was coming and then becoming over extended. Personally, having a plan in place to prove up the assets through some drilling subsequent to completions and further drilling in Q1/Q2 dependent on timing of FOIL. The planning is not capital intensive nor if we are producing cashflow are the long lead items that depleting. As for a cheaper FPSO, this isn't really what I said. What I did say was "HUR as a producing entity are better placed to take and FPSO in the market based more on a day rate than upfront expenditure of more than $250M plus a dayrate of $150-200k per day for 6 years. This equates to $280k per day or $613.2M - not a bad income stream for a vessel past her peak. It is the kind of money which would be sufficient to secure a higher capacity vessel for an IFD without eating into the cashflows sigificantly. Be facetious all you like with reductive ebay comments but frankly if the BoD are not planning for an IFD given how the FO expectations turned out then I would be most perturbed. Simply put, any acquirer would be mad not to given it allows the funding of the FFD organically also.

AdUK The IFD suggestion is a simplistic conclusion of what the business could achieve through organic cashflow in event of successful EPS. The major benefit of this is.proving up the two (joint) fields more fully and increasing the underlying business cashflow. Once IFD is established then FFD (for one of the joint fields) can also be principally funded organically with the generation of around $1.5bn free cash with $30 cashflow per barrel on the project. Not a Bad idea and if potential bidders low ball because of data absence the above can be achieved in fairly short order to underpin the SP at a significantly elevated level by mid/end 2019.

Longwait From memory I think the 2020/21 is more like 2019/20 when reading in context and with regard to expected developments.

Don't think they will be taking new licences on until some existing are relinquished. To quote another stock, rinse and repeat so prove up sell on and begin again afyer dividending most of the cash. Think this is where Africa Oil come in, once they review seismic from an acquisition they can likely provide sub/mezz debt style funding so it is priced for risk but not dilutive.... Time will tell I guess.

https://www.lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=796&start=300

MidddleEastMoney Lots of people reference a post by someone called DSPP on Lemonfool. If you Google Hurricane Energy Lemonfool and go to pg16 you will see his post regarding SP at different timelines in next 12 months through to end 2019. His numbers probably arent a million miles from what many here might calculate/expect in event of successful EPS and some further drilling.

Yuyus A few are going along on the day I think - myself included but don't let that put you off!

Anyone's guess MidddleEastMoney and a litany of variables to consider that have a bearing: - what is sustainable flow rate - does the oil flow - what is the price of oil - economic outlook - further drilling - new CPR arising from EPS info - timing of FOIL and info derived from EPS initial phase - rumours on IFD versus FFD - stated strategy, upcoming drills cashflow etc.