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AdUK This is the crux of the FPSO solution not as an additiomal EPS but as a fully fledged funding mechanism. If repeating the trick once the parallels are established. The cash requirement from CapEx is ultimate greatly reduced and from a returns perspectives models stack up the RoE (return on equity) better as being a straight pass through to HUR shareholders as profit/cashflow of new owners isn't being directed TO CapEx/OpEx during the build up to FFD. If contemplating and FFD for all fields they can fund each one. This allows much more agile movement and starts getting the oil out of the ground much more quickly. 50-75m barrels a year production with an extra (larger) FPSO during ramp up would throw off some amount of cash if modelled at $70 oil.

So probably Oct before results are known. CPR should definitely be dine before then!

Reverandy How about saying end June or before if AM sets sail (Which she probably wont).

Bucentaur/Skandi This will be the kind of ship watching that AS loves so! In many respects, while many stocks may drop back after the euphoria of FOIL subsides I wonder if the opposite is true here because it is FOIL that will prove up so much if/when it flows and the info is analysed.

Into the middle of June now so hopefully a CPR on its way soonish. These things always seem to take a bit longer than expected. Does anyone have an insight to the time the Cormorant well might take for Tullow? Apparently this could be quite significant as a read across to our blocks as I've mentioned someone said in London last week. Looking at Guyana, with a first drill by end Q1 then what value may be expected there. I note the HUR share price/MCAP after drilling Lancaster but obviously no perfect read across as while reserves there were larger doubts around FB will have suppressed the SP climb. Should be an interesting run to annual results and H2.

So looks like CA are not the seller

Cheers Biffa

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSL8N1TF3SV?__twitter_impression=true

I'd imagine any data room is virtual as much of the analysis will be data led. Unless they have space set aside at HUR offices for core samples and the like. In terms of data from EPS, HUR decides what goes into the room and when (they'll want to complete their own analysis first) and as regards participants that also will be with His control. They mentioned the model They are building with Schlumberger on how EPS will perform based on their info to date which reads across the field(s). They will use EPS data to validate the model predictions if results are to plan and with this build up validation of their assumptions about the ridge and it's properties (fracture connectivity etc). That stuff won't go in data room until they're happy it's copper bottomed as early release could mean early corporate activity. RT mentioned 12 months post FOiL for commercial discussions and I dare say this is the BoDs preferred timeline as they will have done the Q2 drilling (if FOIL happens early Q1) and had time to perform analysis of the same to move assets up value curve.

Bull markets are born on scepticism, grow on pessimism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria - so goes a saying. I'd argue we are in the skepticism phase bordering pessimism until maybe 6 months after FOIL when optimism will kick in and hopefully sell out in euphoria.

To predict that would be foolish of me pijoe. Bondholders have surprsied people so far and may continue to do so, the delta between here and Sirius being the proximity to production, revenues and resultant potential for significant returns. For some hedgies a result on this could give them bonus enough to pay off their mortgages in Surrey and the City. However, not all will wait for jam tomorrow and am sure some will take a hybrid approach of booking gains now and letting some ride.

Pijoe Given lack of RNS activity not sure CBs have converted. Those who were shorting would likely have done so at outset so little new activity there. Depending on their risk appetite and what their technical advisors say (they could easily pay Gaffney Cline or someone for an independent opinion) this might be on the risk loving side of their asset allocation strategy as if it comes off it could add percentage points to their return given them some healthy Alpha and good bonus to boot. Newsflow should see us move past the 48p barrier soon probably when AM sets sail if not before.

Will it benefit the UK economy or increase the cost of Sterling at a time when it may be beneficial to producers for this to be lower post (any potential) Brexit to encourage exports and reduce imports..... The Donald may be certifiable but what he says about trade imbalances is true they cannot continue endlessly as the creditors of the deficit countries (ourselves included) may one day come calling.

Pijoe That final question is the million dollar one (depending on your holding size)!! Now that Edison have EPS as a 100% chance of success can we sue them If it is not......

Pijoe Is there a demonstrable average 2C per barrel value based on the many variables which can impact market view on how to monetise 2C and risks in doing so? Arguably the EPS shows an efficient way of doing so in HUR case with good support close at hand in terms of established oil province hence easy access to expertise. Strong legal jurisdiction with stable tax treatment. Correlation of existing fields to Lancaster (if proven/indicated sufficiently) by EPS could move these assets significantly up the 2C curve to nearer 2P valuations when looking at potential values. Even a stand alone transaction on Lancaster moves the dial as HUR cam monetise remainder with partners as a strong negotiator. Hence, not sure 2C valuation is the only metric that may be applied when models are formulated in event someone makes an offer.

Pijoe A quick and dirty NPV15 of a 10yr EPS with $40buck a barrel free cash (rising 2% p.a.) is 75p a share. Don't really see that skewing quite so far to the 2C.

100% Chance of success for EPS is pretty bold. Low prod figures for 2019/20 and then 20% IRR hammers value thereafter. See the NPV as nearer 65p a share on 10yr at 25k bopd. Assumptions on FPSO solutions for Halifax and Lincoln but why only 250m barrels and why only $6.50/$5.00 a barrel and 40% WI? Good FPSO solution may produce 50-70m boe p.a. and run 10-15 years so 500-750m barrels easily. HUR can fund such from EPS cashflow with no partner hence figures VERY conservative. Taking $10 per barrel NAV for two fields (Lincoln and Halifax) gets to a pretty chunky number ($6 per share atn750m barrels) and is not outlandish. Add 500m for Lancaster and it is another $2.00 per share - so $8.00 in total. Using a 10% IRR these numbers are pretty conservative (presuming the $ per barrel NPV in Edison uses 20%) and $70 oil price. That would be a c.£6.00 per share and is NPV based (what someone may may upfront) not waiting for cashflow to be produced. Needs drilling to go right and EPS to produce to get close to it but not outlandish (JImO) to see a path to this by 2020.

Just occurred to me when coming I here it was based mainly on short term news of CPR in Guyana and what the market will attribute to this. However, with 2.6bn prospective (P50??) in Namibia and the Tullow drill due shortly right next to the blocks 10c or 20c a barrel on these is a huge game changer. 2.5c a barrel underpins the current MCAP. Should be interesting times.

They very specifically mentioned having the governance of a FTSE-250 company and soon also the revenues of one also. Depending on performance they would not be far from a FTSE-100 firm if they get towards peak capacity of the FPSO. Based on multiples.

G15 This is part of their recession scenario and is an element of multiple scenarios that form the inputs of a model to project economic outcomes on a weighted likelihood basis to.predict potential credit loss. AS their down side scenario it focuses on the risks and weights them by how.much they are considered tail or not. Their moderate scenario presumes continuing growth and optimistic scenarios an uplift in global economic performance. It has several hundred variables to measure as inputs.