Member Info for InJamesweTrust

Boyzee Am with Wellwell here - unless there is a delay in AM delivery am not sure how FOIL is not achieved in 2018. What in the RNS gives you concern....

DickyH Not complex work but was more just wondering about time required to complete it. This gives a beer indicator of potential timing of hook up if one can extrapolate this along with sailing time from Dubai and time to site for the AM.

Still reckon on this as Sept with an internal aim for AM to be hooked up late Aug/Early Sept to ensure a weather window is captured. Sensible of BoD to maintain guidance but Fri/Mon likely to see an RNS on rig mobilisation which would suggest completions before end June/July(ish) all being well I guess with buoy ready in late July/Aug. Presuming all of the above happens give or take on dates then a sail date for AM by end June gets her to Rotterdam mid August for some possible welding and on site soon after. Interesting to get some insight to timing of Rotterdam stop. However, progress indicates FOIL is likely within a certain timeline of AM setting sail - all other work having been completed.......So when she does set sail then the speculators will likely begin to dive in as mentioned elsewhere. What do you value Lancaster on successful FOIL and how does it's 2C convert to 2P and the value curve change for other contingent resources.....

Pijoe Many have said little value can be ascribed to contingent resources and these don't convert to reserves unless a plan is in place to monetise them. I disagree somewhat and where there is a read across to similar fields and these are demonstrably commercially exploitable then the market will value them more fully. Agree the potential is currently heavily discounted. Interesting to note the different breakeven between HUR and RKH and similarity in size (for now) between the Sealion and Lancaster fields. However, with a $45 breakeven on Sealion then at $70 oil and 30k bopd (if we ramp up to it) HUR free cash will be higher than that of RKH by quite some margin. Even at 17k bopd and $70oil HUR is beating RKH for cashflow.

Not so familiar with pmg but RKH has been sound up and ready to go for a long time - just awaiting PMO starter gun. Trump is helping keep Poo up so makes sense for PMO to get it going before cost inflation kicks in.

Pijoe Rockhopper has jumped the gun a bit quicker than I expected on SP and has done pretty well. With Fire and guiding Q4-18/Q1-19 for FID I'd expected it to start motoring in Q3.

Sorry it was actually Teeside - Haverton Hill about 10yrs ago.

Casapinos I know of two oil rigs someone tried to build a few years ago (2005) on Humberside. It did not and well except for the Singapore Yard they were towed to!

Escargot (and others) Think this is probably right as not only does it give them plenty of time to achieve FOIL. They can also take their time testing pressures etc as there is no market requirement to be pumping out 17k bopd immediately on FOIL. The real indicators are AM setting sail and buoy being connected.

Drill dates are likely to be coming quickly off the back of the CPR. Holzman mentioned within 10 months a drill could be turning. Given things like the TO fleet report to get that moving time then news ought to be out in Q3 I'd reckon. Depending on the number in CPR that drill could go a long way to confirming not sure many want to be out.

Biffa/Genghis I'll be there for the AGM. The Punch bowl is I think nearby as is Browns Hotel I'm sure.

Pre costs and not NPV'd though. Maybe closer to $200M after such is taken into account? Still pegs the SP at a minimal and once would expect uside to be priced in also in case of further discoveries.

Hercules Triumph?

Think Gil guided as mid June for the CPR in his interview. These things often slip a bit as last data is due in May son will need a quick turnaround to get anything material into the figures and signed off by all concerned. However, post CPR think it will be fairly quick to identify drilling target(s) and be looking for a rig and permits in short order. He mentioned drilling within 10 months!

Extrader The SNP have stated in parliament there is an indefinite moratorium on cracking which JR and Ineos charge amounts to a de facto ban which is illegal. I dont know all the ins and outs but they are using the withholding of permissions to stymie any progress in this area which Ineos argues bad for business investment.

Wellwell I wonder if some contingent budget might be available as the completions are happening the early part of the time window.... Still much to do by the look of things but good to see progress

Wellwell Really interesting and some clever usage of kit by the company if indeed it will give some time for the rig to do one or two things on other wells. Am sure Far Superior is cheaper on the day rate so a good bit of ingenuity. Drill on Warwick and DST on Halifax probably a bit tight unless we take the Repsol route.....Drill Warwick and then start the DST which means we keep the rig until work completed!!!

Extrader Reading the article his net worth is markedly higher than the £21bn quoted and probably nearer to £40-50bn. In a securitization pool I used to manage in the early noughties the company facilities were always under reorganisation as they were extended for new transactions everywhere months. Lots of corporate activity. Alas it was never possible to buy an interest in this company picking up unwanted assets on the cheap but from an initial £40m transaction he has done rather well. His point about cracking and battle with Scottish government is an interesting one.

The wells have generated significant flow rates without stimulation and the EPS will use ESP's to assist this natural flow rate. They have been tested at 12,000 bopd and the BoD believe each well can flow at around 20,000 bopd without creating undue stress on the well. As jaykay1 says it will.likely be around degrees of success rather than success or failure. Theory of FB West of Shetland (As I understand it) is that The fractures are sufficiently prevalent as to create connections which allows the oil to flow between these each and thus can be captured by a commercially viable number of wells.

DickyH Yep, the 3 or 4 firms is an interesting statement. His intimation that someone will shoot the starting gun prematurely is not a finger in the air statement either. While he can't state definitively he will get alot of off the record whispers I'm sure.