Member Info for InJamesweTrust

Nobody wants to pull rank on rig availability and cause a Macondo - don't get me wrong but very quickly TO will have known what the scale of the issue faced is and could in light of that take some mitigating action around rig availability. I dare say bigger players than us may have redress written into contracts but we are perhaps a market taker not a market maker as regards terms of contracts for now.

It really is a *******s thatTransocean took the contract in full knowledge of the knock on implications as they would have detailed knowledge of what the **** up at Shaw entailed.

Apart from your first sentence, don't dispute any of the below. Doubt there would be manybtakers at �1-00 maybe some more at �2-00 a share. This depends where HUR are on the curve of proving up but let's presume EPS proves up Lancaster economics with good flow and little stimulation required (ESP). Let's for sake of argument use Macquarie $7.50 for the 500m barrels and one gets close to your �2-00 figure immediately . The value attributable to the remaining fields changes if Lancaster works and by end 2019 further drilling begins to show the potential of these also - particularly if drilling data shows identical behaviour to Lancaster and Halifax can be interfence tested to it. Personally a sale of LanFax makes most sense (once 2P figure is maximised which needs to demonstrate commerciality not be funded to do) with HUR then proving up LinWick on its own or with a partner on terms that don't equate to being bent over. Of course that is all dependent on the black stuff flowing if it doesn't then I'd take the quid but not sure it will be on the table.

Haggistrap Wouldn't be so sure that the FFD cost (for Lancaster) is in excess of the (ultimate) TO cost for HUR if we get to such a point and depending what has been proved up at that point.

Zebbo Mainly driving at the residual 15% not the terms for the option TOTAL already has. With 3-4 drills and possible resource along the lines outlined by Gil or expected as a result and one them thinks in value attributable to each barrel then it is along the lines of your own thoughts about it doing a Cove. At $1 or 2 a barrel then the potential is dizzying and Total will be aware of it when doing their sums Of imagine.

RT has previously stated he expected AM to be on site in September 2018 - this was subsequent to her arrival in Dubai and they are it seems ahead of schedule with no apparent problems. Currently there is no line of sight to the availability of the rig, so the BoD are showing caution in their guidance as no point in the AM being on site if nothing to moor her to. Well completions and mooring remain ON TARGET for Q2/Q3. The Roadshow presentation shows potential cashflows and includes 1-Jan-19 as date for first oil. The lower figure being linked to the 6 month ramp up to 85% efficiency. I'd still say FOIL in 2H-18 and sail away of AM in July/Aug once the rig is firmed up. For me, there will be news to the positive (if rig is on site) by the time of the AGM including an RNS and/or Malcy interview to spike the guns of potentially disgruntled shareholders. Frankly if they don't achieve oil in 2018 then the warrants for long lead items make the BoD look ridiculous given the funraise was achieved a matter of weeks subsequent to this.

AdUK Just saw your post from yesterday, RB clearly does have money invested in HUR as I am sure he has a significant holding in Crystal Amber and by extension HUR. Even if he did not, he would be long HUR by working for a fund whose existence has a degree of reliance on the performance of HUR. A lesson many employees of the Bank's (and other companies) have historically failed to heed when going all in on company investment schemes. Something which one can't apply to a BoD who one expects to have skin in the game.

Is it known who (If independent) Did the resource estimate for Exxon or (as I suspect) is it just their in house bods. Good to know around consistent methodology - not withstanding it is to be done to the industry guidelines obviously. So if resources comes out at 2-3bn barrels (listening to Gil it sounds like it will pitch around these levels) then I wonder how Total would value 300-450m extra barrels on their bottom line.....

Ricfle That is manifestly not what I am referring to, it is quite clearly his bailing out of the warrant fund raise. At such a time material discussions/intentions should be disclosed and I dare say this has not been done. We do not know how much due diligence was undertaken nor information proffered at this time. There is them the VCP being awarded after such a debacle. I can't be bothered going over old ground but just because He is in profit doesn't mean he hasnt been screwed.

AdUK RB may argue that loyalty should work both ways and after being royally screwed has good reason to be disappointed. He helped the company out of a (warrant sized hole) but hindsight may tell him some due diligence would have been in order. Two things spring to mind a) there wasn't time and/or b) not all material documents may have been disclosed around funding position. We'll never know. The fact he remains invested despite waning influence in ownership terms is a good sign. He has a job to do and continually slating him for doing it is to wilfully misunderstand how much of modern financing works. The problems created by this short cycle reporting can create a need for news acceleration and undue pressure but it is the model we have....

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Why-Value-Per-Barrel-Is-Such-A-Lousy-Metric.html

Bit bored today so perusing Twitter and seeing a reference to BP quarterly results. Made me think about their production capacity now versus 8 years ago and the assets they have had to shed (or not develop) as a result of constrained finances arising from Macondo. So BP has a market cap now less than half some of the other big players BP - 109.77bn Chevron - 236.25bn Exxon - 325.65bn So how do they get to the top table again, they will have a keen weather eye on our ops and from Quad 204 can quite literally keep an eye on them. So if we start to show the capacity to demonstrate a resource in the billions of barrels it won't take long for them to start considering their options and this should in time be reflected in SP as we approach FOIL regardless of CA actions.

Fwiw I dare say nobody is more annoyed than RB about selling currently. Activist shareholders can wield influence with single digit percentage holdings but the normal influence this would yield is blunted by Kerogen holdings. He has had good reason to be activist in h8s behaviours.

Surely Syaing their plight is funny and traducing them as enthusiastic amateurs is gloating or incredibly uncivil or both. Am sure there are lots of self proclaimed Buffets but much better to be constructive. As mentioned good luck to Sound holders. It is a salutary lesson when it doesn't go to plan. A good reason for having a plan in place - such as cutting exposure once price responds to.passing through a number of risk gates - as many will no doubt do here (not just RB) to leave the rest riding more comfortably.

Don't think.gloating at others mis-steps leaves anyone in a good light. Advice offered costructively nd with good d much more likely to be listened to. That is if one is genuinely trying to help.

Gils mentioned mid June for the CPR in the interview with Vox this week.

Hi DickyH No started bailing as TE-7 got pushed further and further back and was fully out before TE-8.

Ricfle Not really embrassed, it was the first stock on AIM I went into after getting a locked occupational pension released into a SIPP. Liked the story when they were in the 50's around TE-6 time and got out when TE-7 results were delayed and SP was in the 80's. They may yet be worth more than the 40p even on 1TCF but not risking anything on them.

Ricfle You were in there once upon a time were you not (along with many of us)?

AdUK A rout indeed over there and given their RNS this week and continued jam tomorrow narrative it would need the patience of a saint. For the sake of lots of good people I hope there is a way or can be turned around but fear not.