Member Info for InJamesweTrust

G15 This is part of their recession scenario and is an element of multiple scenarios that form the inputs of a model to project economic outcomes on a weighted likelihood basis to.predict potential credit loss. AS their down side scenario it focuses on the risks and weights them by how.much they are considered tail or not. Their moderate scenario presumes continuing growth and optimistic scenarios an uplift in global economic performance. It has several hundred variables to measure as inputs.

Wellwell Hence the importance of an IFD strategy as a Plan B. However, the prospect of multiple billion barrels in a relatively legal friendly jurisdiction compared to Saudi, Russia and parts of South America (just look at Venezuela) is a real attraction. The geology will out, if the field behaves/performs and proves up the nature of the ridge then multiple partners acting as consortia on each of GLA and GWA is not out of the question. The outlay across 4 partners for 50% of each field isn't enormous. The FFD will come from free cash/debt secured to a JV it is the upfront payment that the model mainly has to support. So let's presume $5 a barrel for P2 and each field is 3bn barrels and HUR retains a one third interest in each with carry. That would be $2.5bn per partner which they would get back as a nominal cash sum within 7 years and the rest is return on equity. Exploration can cost more than $5 a barrel and.not necessarily find fields with the economy of scale potential these have.

AdUK Perhaps you should go and tell Moody's they don't know what they're doing. Brexit and it's associated economic impact of badly managed exit would knock economic confidence. Badly impacting EZ and is a central tenet of the downturn scenario in the model. Including unwinding of US tax benefits.

He suggested the PI was way over Bach To which has produced a billion barrels plus from FB and comparable with Ghawar in Saudi. He actually said once they get the thing cleaned up and running the PI maynin fact be higher than 145.

Sorry 2019 through 2020

The moderate economic scenario from one of the big economic consultancies is for $80 oil in 2020 presuming a hard Brexit dislocation is avoided.

They don't expect to perform flaring. This might be AS way of trying to put off shipwatchers/workers close by keeping an eye out but he did seem quite certain there would not be a need.

Next year's AGM At the meeting more than one director alluded to whether an AGM would be needed Next year and concluded while it probably would - the year after was less likely. John van der Walle was very clear it is not a lifestyle company and they will not be around long term. AS was pretty clear that people expected them to fail to raise funding and assets could then be accessed cheaply.

He also said the Petrofac story was firmly in the *******s camp. So.no suitors, no extenuating circumstances he effed the warrants up all on his own ;-)))))

Malcy was talkative after the AGM on HUR and other O&G stacks. Very approachable and reckoned he'd have RT on in two weeks or so.

CEO comments - entered into fair and balanced commercial arrangements - Bluewater working hard IN Dubai - 2017 has been transformational with AM and oil expectation for H1 2019 - there is significant shareholder value they can drive from the reservoirs - did a bit about path to now (prior drills, FDP, Financing and FID - buoy is mid-med on way to site as noted by the ship watchers alreadybhe said (Stobie was less.sanguine about someof theinfo being posted) - x trees in place - dual pod EsPs being installed - then mooring, SURF and pull in of buoy after connecting. - Subsea successes are umbilical, trees and mooring - tasks remaining: Complete wells Mooring Buoy Q3- Sail away In event these proceed to plan FOIL can be delivered at front end.of H1 guidance. Monetization (EPS cashflow)will be used to de risk the assets on the ridge. Establish fair value of assets ahead.of any transanction HURRICANE DOES NOT INTEND TO BECOME A MAJOR Potential for a series of transactions linked to appraisal and development success - no set picture of what a deal looks like. Should be 6-12 months after ramp up before discussions begin Drilling will be designed to de risk barrels in shortest time but without oil in early 19 No decline in EPs over 5 monnths to 9monrha Reasons for Confidence of CEO 5 wells drilled on Lancaster all oil bearing Both wells production tested PI is world class much higher than Bach Go Low drawdown needed Wells 430m above OWC EPS is targeting onlyn8% of 2C/2P High frequency of fractures and minimal drawdown leads to little or no water breakthrough DRILLING Mustn't risk EPS objective so not on Lancaster Not before funding Do Warwick and get resource upgrade For excess gas, 3 scenarios - Wosps tie in - new infra - 're injection RT anticipates being self sufficient in de risksing remaining assets. EPS means there.is no obligation to be in talks until happy monetization is appropriate. Questions Majors are waiting for US to prove but someone may jump gun - AnsCompany has a defence document PI makes BoD and geoscience advisors very confident James Huddleston asked a fairly innocuous question around the PI Team is working on simulation models with Schlumberger about expected performance and how this will reconcile to real world experience Weather in Nov.ok for pullingin Buoy Good performance from Dr T much.more assured than previously.

Some notes from today feel free to add/contradict/ignore as you prefer!! -Chairman stated Co is continuing to work on governance and needs to get balance between NEDs and i-NEDs. - now have policies and procedures of a FTSE-250 company and soon will have revenues of one also. - Remain on budget and on time. - EPS expected to provide critical concrete evidence for FB along UK CS not just Rona Ridge (more far-reaching application than I expected) - EPS will also de risk other assets in HUR portfolio and move them up value curve. - HUR next steps post successful EPS are further appraisal and/or next stage development. - Not is keen to prove the maximum number of barrels as quickly as.possible.

Reach for the sky Various timelines have been suggested for the proof positive the concept works. Probably the most common is 6 months plus - the first 3 months will likely include manipulationof different levels of extraction by the company to see how the well performs but this in itself is likely to be highly valuable - interference testing across distances etc. The amount of control across the points of the wells I am happy to.leave to others but I dare say timing wise HUR would like to have info On EPS and further drills by end Q3/Q4 2019 - although very useful.info will be available earlier. HuR has to decide how to put this into the data room or other semi public or public domain to highlight the priz3. If it all flows.

Ride Our MCAP today is around £950m. Let's say for sake of argument it is £1.5bn around the time of FOIL. A mid tier CEO may see a transformational opportunity to make an opportunistic offer - say £500m upfront for 10% of HUR with a commitment to develop an IFD/FFD plan in short order that allows RT to remain involved at a high level. That immediately jumps us up to £2 per share and the cashflow (based on equivalency) from say 70p and allows investors to see EPS cashflow used to drill and prove up more of the resources to reserves 2C to 2P. The initial agreement could include an option to take reserves off our hands at a price.per barrel that allows them to bring in partners or develop with us. There are all sorts of ways people can structure a deal. Motivation - game changer but down side is all the effort just to fire the starting gun on a race you're never.going to win. The timing is long before the marker sees us at £6.50 if it ever does. They utilise first mover advantage.

Ricfle Let me say it more slowly. Not tiers may jump the gun to get in before assets move up the value curve. Using a buy now pay later arrangement as outlined below so the upfront cash requirement is in fact minimal. Bit like how the Blazers bought Man United - flash some cash then sweat the assets to support a debt burden.

Ricfle The reference to mid tiers was about the potential for someone to jump the gun before the EPS results are fully analysed - hence long before the circumstances where one might be looking at valuing cashflow on billion barrel IFD solutions. If you are a mid tier player and hear the oil is flowing then an Early bid costing a few hundred million to access the fields as a partner and pay a price per barrel down the line to ensure a) the SP is underpinned at an elevated level to make the shareholders happy and b) accelerate field development quicker than HUR can stand alone while allowing HUR to participate in a major.part of the upside and potentially RT being there to see it all come to fruition. Not a prediction just gaming potential outcomes.

SotB Obviously any upside from today is welcome - if the wells perform as modelled or better and further drilling goes well who knows. Will I have the guts to hold in full to find out - never know until it happens but imagine top slicing 30-40% will be quite appealing. Depends on how other holdings perform in meantime too.

SotB He mentions an exponential upside from his current 100p target.

Missdosh whatbhave you done to the price?

Some names to aliases and faces to names..... It certainly will be good