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Italian position is spoiling markets but to be fair, ECB withdrew bond purchases to force Berlusconi out of office when he didn't tow the line. They are seeking to do exactly the same.again. This would be fair enough of Germany paid in to recognise the benefit it derives from a pooled currency but they don't and let other countries down. Take a look at German debt dynamics (falling rapidly) and surplus way in excess of growth and stability pact. Their Achilles heel is Target2 where unused bank reserves (excess funds in German banking system) are used to fund Italian banks. The volume is way bigger than Greece and as a result they have the capacity to make Germany pay for the benefit derived over last 18yrs through immediate debt renegotiation. Hits Germany pretty hard to take it in one go and a unilateral default by Italy will bring significant contagion risk. How long until there is a renegotiation and extension of tenors. Again, Italy won't open themselves up to the vicissitudes of the Troika that beset Greece so.

Given the lack of RNS relating to conversion of bonds, I wonder what the cause other than PoO weakness may be. People have noted recent selling by CA is probably more than was needed by the inflated proportion of HUR in the fund following the recent rise. So, I wonder if CA has sold a few shares to buy a few bonds and decided to lock in the price with some shorts to be unwound as news comes out around FOIL. In the meantime they get a tidy 7.5% and any future uplift doesn't mean sale of shares if they hold the bonds at cost. As and when he unwind the short and chooses to convert he can then share in any big windfall coming from FOIL without constantly selling into it. Just a thought.

AdUK In France they are used to.letting the tanks of neighbouring countries roll in. They'll not make it to Blighty quite so easily.

If these are sales of convi holders or new shorts taken out by them along with hot.miney leaving now rig in place we are nearer to convi price so hopefully get some support at this level.

Not sure Zennor need to give their option up. There will be contingency built into our hire period of the rig and possibly some goodwill from TO given the delay in her starting. RT is an adventurous sort of chap in terms of drilling approach so am sure would love to squeeze something in perhaps a 40 day drill of Warwick to get oil shows? If we have it for 3 months and completions can be done in just under 2 this would not impact Zennor. Flip side may be true though, we work with TO to get it to Zennor early (so less time is lost for weather) and as reward get a more generous hire period next Q1/Q2 when we have cashflow to drill.

He's talking up Petro Matad who have an upcoming drilling program.

Think the permits are dated October but like most other project elements I dare say contractors are incentivised to complete earlier - as much as one can push these things on as sometimes it does just take time no matter the money you attempt to throw at it. Still reckon Q3 for FOIL and certainly in 2018. Then some drilling in 2019 along with a bit of revenue as they fiddle with the gubbins and decide how hard to squeeze the cow - all being well.

Phoebus Depends what the market expects the CPR to do and if it has thought traction yet in investors minds. The potential for big news and short timeline to drill should result in a rerating that Pareto mentioned and thisoccurring against a higher potential asset base. Look at HUR if you say it is valued on $7 A barrel of reserves (c.37m in 6yr EPs) against a market cap of £950m the remainder contingent resources are valued at around 30p a barrel. So if we have 15% of a 3bn barrel field that equates to 89p a share on HUR basis of 30p a barrel contingent reserves (60p a share on a 2bn field) Now HUR has obviously done drilling but the doubts around Fractured Basement probably nullify the difference in where we are to make for a reasonable market comparison. If you then drill by Dec/Jan and get oil shows.....who knows. Barrels in ground very difficult to value on a competitive basis.

Not sure the company needs to out out an RNS until next business day if a convi holder has converted and sold. It may be they are going to convert and have agreed a sale price which someone is covering until they convert. The well starting completions is a big milestone but also risky to an extent also when one considers Macondo. So perhaps a holder wants out before the work begins to hedge some of that risk. Unexplained lurches do seem commonplace in many stocks. If they become a pattern it is a worry.

JoeSoap Not necessarily misleading to maintain guidance which provides wiggle room in case of unforeseen events. Under promise and over deliver on the timelines isn't a bad mantra - do the same on the oil volumes and we may all be very happy in 12 months.

https://www.**********.co.uk/blogs/ferrum-crescent-fcr-malcy-pmo-rkh-echo-hur-genl-sdx-igas-ophr/

SiPP Interesting how they mentioned capital efficient projects were interesting - so if you can add reserves for a company that could be self funding (EPS and IFD) all the way to FFD what upfront price......

I'll try to look back on this thread the day before and take note of questions which I may share with others to ask if inundated. So if posting keep to this thread if possible?

Any takers for compiling a list of questions for the AGM? I'm happy to ask a chunk of them - if they get sick of me standing up then may need help of Genghis/SIPP or other attendees. Fairly thick skinned and not likely to be embarrassed so within reason get your questions out there?......

Drilling and planning is one of the questions I have in mind for the day. It doesn't.necessarily nail them down but they have mentioned monetization enough themselves so in a world of good EPS results and on target cashflow how do they see them progressing the assets up the value curve....

TOTAL The investment being made by Exxon really helps the case here Id think. With the number of shares In issue any offer doesn't have to be crazy to fly. Say a 2bn barrel field and we have 15% That's 300m barrels. One dollar a barrel is $300m for Guyana or £2 a share and leaves Namibia free and clear.... In terms of time they may want to wait for first drill to confirm but that would equally move the dial quite a bit on price per barrel. Perhaps an upfront payment for a favourable price per barrel option on 10% of our 15% would lock in benefit for all parties...

In terms of down time I think the poster was alluding to a risk sharing agreement on costs for downtime between Zennor and TO rather than TO warm stacking her if she had no employment. Used to seen it all the time with box ships - race to the bottom for day rates as any charter was deemed better than no charter with OpEx. Some charters being less than OpEx on them.

SotB Clearly a man of good taste. A debt pint of Tennants is very hard to beat.

On other boards, there is speculation on impact of US sanctions around TOTAL interests in Iran. If they do have troubles then making themselves up to majority player in the Orinduik field. Accelerate development with an FPSO solution and it fairly quickly replaces a potential cashflow hole if the oil is there in quantities Gil alluded to in his podcast. So if they want a.majority stake and say there is 1.5bn boe in CPR what price the extra 225m barrels that would be ECO share of the field....? Would give TOTAL what 800-900m barrels replacement reserves to exploit quickly.

SG2 Total are involved in another E&P a bit further behind the curve than HUR in Guyana where they have an option and further one to exercise to take them from 15% to 40% WI in a field due a new CPR shortly. The BP comment stands true as well. As/if/when the concept becomes accepted as real by the players in the market the relative benefits of the UK legal environment compared to continued investment in or retention of holdings in much more complex jurisdictions.