Member Info for InJamesweTrust

Ricfle About 4 months to go maybe 5 if they're going to maximise the weather window to ensure they achieve FOIL in 2018. Yes majors may wait but mid tier may not and some institutions, hedgies and lots of PI's will see a handy risk reward balance even at prices quite a bit North of where we are today and such action may drive the price. Brinksmanship to the fore.....

AdUK Think he is just was covering. There is an excitement to his tone but if he doesn't talk downside and goes on to say this is a guaranteed £2/3/6 when the oil flows he looks an arse if ot doesnt and could be sued. Not sure he is that doubtful himself.

Happy with this, once we know which one!

Was ever a venue decided upon for Wednesday to meet pre/post AGM for those attending?

Genghis Taking a field of 1.25bn barrels and extracting oil at 50m barrels a year for 25 years - well within capacity of FPSO solutions gives a value of £7.24 per share on a 10% discounted NPV or £3.96 on a 20% discounted NPV. This is using $60 oil (inflated at 2% p.a.) with £5bn CapEx loan repaid from cashflow and $825k per day OpEx inflated at 4% p.a. Done at this level to represent a stand alone solution so you can factor it up by 3x for number of barrels if you think 3.75bn. Then apply whatever discount you like - let's say a 70% haircut on NPV10 and you get about £6.50 a share. The discount has to cover the further drilling need of Lincoln/Warwick/Halifax but bear in mind the similar properties exhibited from drilling samples thus far so an element of read across is possible. Of course the EPS revenue is more immediate and can be used to fund much of an IFD/FFD solution if it flows. This moves the dial on the model. Monetizing assets quickly is more feasible also with Exxon expecting first oil in Guyana by 2020 having only taken on the block in 2015 and drilled last year and this. Personally I like the idea of proving up Lanacaster/LanFax for a sale at an attractive price and working with a major partner to develop LinWick quickly. Ps - Jimo but happy to send the excel file if you want a copy or bring a print out along on Wed.

Pijoe Possibly but was just using a simple metric as in the event of a successul EPS there is likely to be a step change in the value the market ascribes to HUR's 2C assets. Further drilling if successful will move some of these from 2C to 2P as will EPS data - even before financing is in place as they need to be commercial, not funded.

Do you think Sound Energy should get OHnYM/OGIF to build a pipeline WoS instead of Tendrara and be an offtake for our gas...... Too much, I'll get my coat

Does France and Greenpeace not have a somewhat checkered history anyway!!! Not sure they will get much traction in a French boardroom. They could try the legal system but in my experience they'll not get much joy either!

Wellwell don't spoil our fun in advance! Hope the golf was good today and you missed the rain.

A well known contributor who is bearish on our 2C value indicates in another stock it may be $1.50 per barrel. The effective functioning of the EPS on Lancaster removes much of the discount on our current 2C value and that alone takes us to c.$3bn. Add in the conversion of much of Lancaster to 2P and you conservatively get another $3bn and at 2.5bn shares (inc convis) you get £2.40 a share. The above is feasible by June '19 - feasible but not guaranteed hence the risk discount currently but that should unwind as risk is reduced. This doesn't include uplift from further drilling and any DST/IFD/FFD planning which books bigger 2C/2P numbers....

Pijoe Drilling by January potentially so not far off proving whether or not there is something there. Exxon are certainly jumping into The area with both feet.

Cebo $12bn from TOTAL and they can have my shares tomorrow! Was mulling over numbers of CPR and what our share would mean to othe rs in value and was thinking along similar lines to yourself. Given the success of the area and Exxon investment getting into the area is a plus for many.

Pijoe You back in yet or holding off......

Genghis Completion of the well work overs. Update on Sub Sea possibly AM sea trials in a week Or two I'd guess. Think the BoD would like another RNS before the AGM next week.....to ensure an easy ride for them after a challenging year in some respects.

Not sure people are saying forget Namibia. The CPR and drill in Guyana may result in that acreage being monetized more quickly for ECO as a standalone asset if results are good. The company can then move on to concentrate more on Namibia and activities there. Potentially having paid a divi and retained a sum for drilling plan. Obviously in an ideal world kind of scenario bit.none of us is here in expectation of doomsday!

Would contend that POO has an impact because of DCF of revenues and bidding appetite of majors. The value of these activities to the share price is them risked which explains the absence of exact correlation to POO (along with other factors like input costs if your a producer). When EPS has completed further risk gates the two main ones being well completion and AM setting sail it should have a material impact as regardless of ones view on oil.majors willingness to invest there is the 10yr DCF of EPS to consider. There is also the value gap and while some potential bidders may wait on the sidleines before getting into the HUR story others will see a fairly significant potential value gap and decide it is worth apportionment capital - in full knoedge of the risks that is after all what discretionary/active managers do - look for Alpha. If this does come off the Alpha from current levels is very significant. Doesn't need a hedgie to chuck 500m in but based on the relative tightly held nature of the stock a few boys in red braces punting a few million will make a difference. It could put them into mega bonus territory while a loss would mean a normal bonus. This activity along with PIs joining the fray should see movement.

First few months correlation skewed by fund raise but thereafter it starts to look more closely linked. Many reasons for correlation, DCF impact on EPS revenue and investment appetite of market players key amon them.

Volume not exactly significant. Once the CPR comes out it should move the dial somewhat. If current value is on 800m barrels in Orinduik and the CPR gives a multiple of this one might reasonably expect a proportional uplift (not like for like but decent all the same). News of drill timing should then increase interest somewhat further. This could come quite soon after the CPR - obviously with TOTAL news potential.

The average comes out as 1st Dec moving YuYus and adding BnB. So the average is for FOIL in 2018.

Yuyus What did you have and if I can ask, any driving reason for The change?