Member Info for InJamesweTrust

WT Think Wellwell was posting more out of clarification than any drive to be negative. Not a bad tjingif design is simple- less to go wrong. Ad to Yuyus and JoeSoap - the delay to PBLJ has probably pushed back delivery of Aoka Mizu which Trice originally stated would be on field in Sept. Therefore an earlier option would have been feasible. I dare say Dubai World can throw less Overtime at the completion which will be a savibg for them. The BoD could not have been clearer, no further drilling will take place until revenue is there to fund. Going so far as to say unless revenue is flowing early Q1 there will be no drilling in 2019. This was among comments that any initial drilling would be away from Lancaster so as not to interfere with data being produced by the EPS.

BnB The BoD/RT has indicated 6 weeks travel so.lets say end Oct to Rotterdam with commissioning en route. Some further commissioning on site and then hook up and testing before turning on the taps.

Out of the loop much of today but looks like sail away now tightened to being in Q3 so barring weather forbidding it FOIL will be in Q4 it seems?

Wellwell Ridiculous if we give away passporting for services. We have a £100bn plus deficit in goods with EU and that is only offset by the services industry although not fully offset. I'd prefer a hard stop in March.

From a fees perspective I would expect Morgan Stanley to be at a different level altogether compared with Stifel and Cenkos when they were on board. Given the nature of the potential prize it makes alot of sense to have a heavy hitter on board and ensure defence document and BoD case are strong to ensure if a situation develops where Corporate Activity is forefront that they are ready for that eventuality. Quite a decent uptick over last 2 days but this may be more to do with well completion as the BP rumours linked to their own organisational tweak were fairly tangential.

The article seems outside the paywall.

WT - not sure if that is your wn comment beneath the article?

All conjectural for the time being but it seems natural that as FOIL nears interest should heat up.

The company will likely own it but won't stop RT going somewhere else and using his engineering nous to come up.with FB solutions. Most contracts have a boiler plate clause on IP ownership of ideas germinated during ones tenure.

As Ricfle says they would need to.offer a premium to bondholders. The fact they have not converted to book profits to date may indicate a number are in this to hold until closer to FOIL or to see the real Alpha if EPS performs. Take Pelham they have $4.2bn and a $15-20m bet here is a tiny amount relative to AUM but could drive significant fund returns if it turns out to be he elusive ten bagger! $20m becomes $200m giving a 5% fund return from 0.4% of the funds assets. An investor won't relinquish this lightly....and it is very hard to predict how it will play out. We don't want to be in a situation like Ithaca where a blocking stake is accumulated on the cheap. However, this may apply less to HUR as if the assets are as expected it may require multiple bidders working in unison to complete a TO. All pie in sky if oil doesn't flow though.

I may have mentioned something similar to.Malcys suggestion probably 10 times at least in the last 12 months. This may be how one major/mid tier/PE tries to beat the others out of the traps. Particularly if they can do an accelerated accumulation through insti's. Would be more than 50p though as we are probably quite tightly held. Hoovering up the bonds would get you 20% though and if you offered the convi holders 115c on the current $ price and made it a tender offer you don't need to announce until all signed up.....beats the market rising as you buy.

AdUK Think Extrader is making a general point that a plan to develop the infra and charter a harsh environment vessel with similar capability for HUR adsets could make a huge difference to the ultimate value of HUR as an entity. It is remiss rrally to discount the option particularly the timeframe in which such a solution can be delivered and the difference it makes to NPV. Granted 1H-2019 cashflow seems largely earmarked for drilling but the long lead costs are not the so significant.

Hopefully now they have sufficient cash!

So If the Cos changes dramatically from the seismic and the numbers for potential resources are upped significantly also one should expect a significantly higher risked NAV.than their current 113p or so.

Ineos They have indeed shown they like deals where they are getting an assetbat 30-50cents on the dollar of normal valuation metrics. Not necessarily distressed but something unloved. Ratcliffe is also keen to ensure security of production inputs. If they believed in the HUR story of FB and thought they could get 3bn barrels for less than it would costs elsewhere plus any gas they would be interested in doing a deal. As it happens it is more interesting to me the long-term potential and need they see in O&G assets generally. However, as a company with £7bn EBITDA annually funding an FFD wouldn't be an issue (yes much of the EBITDA is currently earmarked for debt service). They have bid in $20bn of assets in the O&G space and as a private company can take a long term view and not worry about cyclical nature of cash flows- my how they have benefited from that.

Wellwell Just started Jim Ratcliffes book on Ineos and these guys are getting into O&G as they believe it to be cyclically out of favour and presenting value at current price levels. They hope cracking in UK can bring back manufacturing. Remember working on facilities for then in 2002-3 and disappointed at the time they were not listed. Am sure Jim is happy he kept ownership now being worth £20-45bn+ depending on multiples. Add better priced oil, locally available to a further devaluation in the currency and you have an opportunity for real growth in manufacturing. WoS can make a big difference to rebalance the economy.

Wellwell While the French, Germans and Irish are keen to carve up as much of the city as possible and see Brexit as an opportunity to do severe damage, it would take many years to replicate the support structure of the City - lawyers, accountants and other advisors. Having dealt with multiple continental bankers they are not as talented by and large as those in the city (this is.not jingoistic, the city is a fantastic melting pot of talent). French 48hr week would ruin corporate lawyers who can get their associates to do that by wednesday in a busy week. Frankfurt is a hole of a place and don't know a single banker keen to relocate. Dublin is far too small to take it on. With Trump potentially putting 20% on German cars and the potential for UK to put 10% on there are some serious risks to the 750k cars we import annually. If the EU doesn't give access to Financial Services they will really struggle to clear Euros and set up the trading infrastructure and ironically to themselves more harm than good with a hard stop. A deal will be judged when there is very little time left. Sadly, if Cameron had tried to get a deal instead of folding like a cheap tent before talks even began it may all have been avoidable.

Basin Model Was reading the RNS which didnt say a great deal that was new. Not sure where the suitors will come from on 2D interpretation - ECO Atlantic has just.finished a major 3D program which is expected to show 2bn barrels (net 300m or so to them) and have a MCAP of £50m. The first basin model was Feb 2017 so nearly 18 months and I'm sure at the time all the noise was around the golden tickets being cashed out in 12 months. Hasn't quite happened and still appears quite some time away...... I'd worry how much drilling they can fund with current cashposition. Good luck to all in the stock.

Wonder what happens to that risked NAV if the CPR is well in excess of the current estimated 1bn barrels. From noises emanating from Gil I'd reckon 2bn plus is on cards....

AdUK He did originally mention FPSO would be on site in Sept. Sail away In next month would just about tie in with that.

Interesting to note something like the SONGS Enabler can be had for $15m per month. A fairly new rig. The EPS 17,000 bopd x $35x 30 gives $18m per month free cash. Plus contingency release as and when they Are comfortable FOIL is running. So the budget is there.

I thought they were Q2/Q3 '19 Ricfle on the fleet report but happy to stand corrected. I think they expect the AM to be connected several weeks before year end and flowing to give some cash.