Member Info for InJamesweTrust

Extrader
Trimmer HUR quite significantly due to slipping timescales and relative hubris of management. They will do FOIL I think within 4-8 weeks or so (maybe sooner) but the big prize is sustainable production which is 3-6months post the FOIL announcement.
This if it comes to.pass will see handy uplift from current/post FOIL SP levels but think greater value here in the period to July/August.
There is the real possibility of sequentially catching the uplift in both which if they are each successful could really put a rocket under investment returns- even after trimming one for risk before placing in the other.
Jimo - if mgmt had stuck to timescales HUR would be past FOIL and announcing production results around now!

Extrader
Those values of Say $8bn are already discounted from what Exxon expect to produce on Stabroek by a factor of 50% but I think cutting by a further third is fairly reasonable. As for CapEx for 35k bopd (220k FPsO on charter) ECO share likey to be $150-200m but highly doubt they will get to that stage.
S what stage will they get to....well, I think they will get the two drills done in June and July targeting 60m barrels net to ECO. $8a barrel plus those not drilled equates probably to £3 a share.
Any TO needs a premium from there.
Personally wonder if they will drop Rappu and if oil in place will be above CPR estimates takings us to 120m barrels plus after first 2 drills.
Would be surprised if they don't come back for Cretaceous after Tullow drill their Kanuku well with Repsol as they will have the data ready to compare as rig mobilised and potential locations in mind..
The drill has to find the oil first though and then it will be interesting see where the SP goes.....

Impact on the planet is reducing in many states but so long as the US and China couldn't give a toss it is mere window dressing. As for the switch from oil to alternative energy within 10yrs - the investment required to replace heavy machinery, trains, planes, buses and cars just isn't there but within 5 years I believe the process will begin. However, some processes may never switch and ramping up.productuon of electric cars is no easy job just ask Elon Musk.
Personally, will be interesting to live in a world where we don't personally own cars to the same extent and I wonder if my kids woll ever need to actually learn to drive with Uber/Lyft and ultimately self driving cars.
There is probably 15-20 yrs more of heavy oil use but as we.know.personal cars account for only a small.proportion of oil consumption.

MiddleEastMoney
Anything from 20p (Namibia residual value) in the event of 6 dusters to several multiples of today. The market is funny about valuing oil in The ground when producing assets are available to buy but the opportunity here is pretty significant.
Gil quotes $8 a barrel for each one in the ground and the CPR states 600m barrel POTENTIAL - this being a key word. Hess quoted a reserve replacement cost of $12/14 in its annual results call IN January if I remember. They have set aside their cash requirements for Stabroek and could be an outside contender for ECO just to pick up the cashflow.
Say 3 FPSO's at 400k bopd total and 15% to ECO with cashflow per barrel of $35 - that is $800m p.a. cashflow and is fairly conservative in comparisons to the 800k bopd plus Exxon expect to produce on their.patch.
Take a 6-10x valuation of whatever mix you like.

The prize isn't extending Hammerhead closer to the P10, it is the move of the remaining targets towards the P10 end of the scale. The current CPR assuming a 200ft seam tends to the 2% gas by volume on the square km base of the field size.
Hence, even a move to 2.5% (it can be 2 to 5% on average) would be a 25% increase in the resource base or an extra 150m barrels net to ECO.
Exxon aren't saying much on the nature of the finds but their speed of.movement says everything about what they know. Imagine the Orinduik.partners will want to.move pretty quick too.

...Is officially a discovery Exxon's 13th on the block.

Escargot
Easy inference from my initial.probably clumsy wording - the danger of a keyboard in conveying a message solely by text.

Biffa
My question would be Round who funds Kerogens and therefore who.makes the decisions. People that know Kerogens may have a slight first mover advantage from a data perspective is as far as I.would wish to go.
Cheap is a relative concept - but if FOIL is 70p then a bid at a 50% premium 3 months later of say £1.20 may be cheap relative to the assets bit is a 160% gain over today's price potentially inside a year.
I'm not predicting this will be the price but do wonder how influential their stake will be given the 2 TO's I mentioned.

Should add HtL - Hope you're treatment is going well and things are improving FOIL soon with any luck.

Escargot
Hates is too strong a word but he is not a fan of the accountability that is due to shareholders. Few people of vision are, they are single minded and it is why they get it done but it is also why a strong Chair and non execs as a brake are important.

Escargot
Any good CEO lives or dies by the share price and at the current level with a strategic holder having 15-20% it wouldn't take much for an Ithaca or Faroe situation to occur here.
They should be getting close to FOIL and (whatever you may think.of him) Malcy has always said someone may jump early for HUR as with people rotating on and off rigs and vessels the state of play will be known. Kerogens will know also.
Hence, although RT may dislike the corporate world (he seems clearly to disdain them to me) he has a job to maximise value and sell the story.
Personally I think he fancies taking it to.production with Spirit and putting two fingers up at the industry but may get a nasty surprise at Kerogens plans.
We are 7 months behind where we should be as a result of whatever delay it was to the FPSO and not a word has been uttered in explantation.
This is more than disdain it is bordering on contempt.

Hi,
Just wondered if anyone attended this last year and if so whether you consider it worthwhile? It's a day off work and extra day in London but would be fairly interested if there is coffee and a chance to speak with board/EVP level employees afterwards.

Marvin
They jumped on the $12.5m pretty quick before the full seismic was released. Not much foot dragging. For me, they will be keen to.prise the remaining 15% from our hands and BoD must guard against them doing so cheaply. It was the speed of paying up.for the option I was referring to, as it showed they were keen to own a stake and start having a say on agenda/schedule.
Haven't come across any such board for Total/Exxon or anything.

Maverick
I'm nervous but that is the natural concern for risk we should all have. However, being funded for multiple further drills and the ebullience of Gil around price not time and the alacrity with which TOTAL paid the option indicates they are fairly certain of the prize. The fund raise shows confidence too so expect good news before end July.
The below indicates a value (((((potential))))) maybe one third of Anadarko 4/5yrs hence. So, even at some.pretty hefty discounts it is a world of difference from the current SP.and are funded to drill and show alot of the oil that may be there.
Have said before, the FAR defence document (in an RNS on their BB here) has some great indicative values for barrels in the ground (accepting global differences make comparables challenging).

Anadarko has 670k bopd production and reserves of 1.47bn barrels. In 3-5yrs ECO share of Guyana could be producing 140k bopd with 600-750m boe in reserves at cheaper break even than the Permian based on Hess comparisons (different shale areas granted).
This gives a quarter of the production (at a better breakeven) and half of the reserves with lower CapEx requirement to get to production (probably $1.5bn for ECO) across 4 producing sites.
Exxon showing it can be turned around and monetized quickly and Hess presentations show how quickly it hits the bottom line.
Just need to show it is there......

Maverick
Not sure they Tell us much about Stabroek we don't know. Think it needs the drill to turn on Orinduik now. The Tullow.AGM should have some good questions and indications of what is expected from Guyana in 2019 and beyond. 3-4 weeks after that Stems Forth sets sail.

Can see there being a slight overhang for a couple of weeks but Tullow AGM soon them countdown to mobilisation and spud.
Some instis will take a 7-10% turn all day long and with fees for the raise probably between 3-5% I can see.some selling in the 83-85p take to hit their hurdle.
Might mean breaking out of that range is a challenge barring other news driven movement. Overhang should clear in 2-3 weeks.

Bloobird
Some of us have suggested previously an attraction of the Spirit deal is to cock a snook at majors and go it alone. Personally, irony think that is the fastest route to.inlock value but the BoD don't need to explain and ultimately never properlynsince justified this deal or the likely impact it has had on FOIL (IMO).

Ultimately I think these are funds which may well be spent in Namibia as in the event of two (or more) hits on summer drills the Guyana ops may be in demand (even paying top dollar for the discovered and $2 for.prospective will even majors out at $3-6 a barrel for good quality replacement reserves and on 600m barrel plus field for ECO those are still punchy numbers.
However, following the first drill this stops ECO getting caught with its pants down if the operator says cough up for some long lead items and a deposit for the next drill.
Raising at market price or just above Is impressive and Africa Oil would not be averaging up if they were not confident of the success they have been in long enough to take a good hard look at the seismic and projected potential.

Not quite sure I get the continued lag in SP here. Haven't overlaid to oil bit from.comments elsewhere I'd have though a barrel was up today if Ghawar is having an issue or two.
The fun if investing eh.