Member Info for InJamesweTrust

I Wonder how much the Spirit transaction as well as Kerogen can act as a blocking stake in each of th3 GWA and GLA in the way that happened at Ithaca. Both have a firm foothold for any future Corp activity which may arise. Probably serves Spirit to highlight what they perceive as some delays rightly or wrongly.
Little while before anyone need a to worry about such things though, need to get some actual oil flowing first - hopefully by April/sometime in April.

Nomadic
Hess with 30% of Stabroek and a $16bn market cap say it is transformational for them. That is 4x our holding (different sized fiwlds) and they're 150x our market cap.
The potential for someone to Come in for Guyana if we drill successfully and then for ECO to recycle some of that cash into Namibia to then farm down for a carry if they find oil is simply sensational.
Still wildcat (particularly Namibia) but....

Wellwell is spot on, while not laying the blame solely at the company's door there has clearly been delays:
- interview in Feb'18 saying FPSO could be on station in Sept'18
- delayed leaving DDO
- 2 stops on the way from DDO to Lerwick
I know they guided H1 but if you want to stick to that with any credibility as a CEO don't go on TV and suggest a date 9 months earlier is feasible she you've had the ship in dry dock for 6 months and should be very clear on work programme.
Something has happened and the contracts should protect the company making it RNS worth but there has been nothing. This makes it very likely the contract is very one sided (piss poor from HUR) or there was a client change to spec.
While the rope isn't necessarily their fault, the fact hook up is being attempted in difficult seas is down to them as Sept'18 would have been a piece of relative piss.
No sign of rope yet, let's say another 2 weeks based on the 'few weeks guidance. Time to get shittogether for hook up another 2 weeks then commissioning that takes us into April. Slim pickings for Revweandys pool I dare say by then and that alone tells us how badly delayed things are.
Cost in lost revenue c.$125m and counting.......but nothing to worry about. What is value of Spirit deal that I still believe was cause.of the delay? Up front not much more than that I'd contend - maybe less for 3 wells.
Management needs to explain these issues better.
Dare say if one cares to look back on order of LLI's around time of finding and updates from company around rope delivery it may give an idea of how long this may take.....

Good news on the rig and great to hear confirmation they will target multiple zones. With the read across from Hammerhead, JL must be considered a good first indicator (always good to get an early hit). Based on the comparison to the TEN complex it had the potential to be fairly sizable.
Another drill immediately subsequent is great news too, particularly if targeting Aurituk and iatuk which look close on the diagrams and are probably 1bn barrels plus.
News on Hammerhead to add to the mix and what more could one ask.
Berenberg I think have been readying the way for a raise. Tullow have made clear their ability to accelerate drilling if the first stage is successful (wonder what undeclared options we may have on the rig). Gil probably wants the ability to play with big boys if that happens.
End game for Guyana if there is oil in Orinduik appears to be an auction of stakes by Tullow and ECO for a major to come in as.operator. cash paid to ECO and free carry to Tullow funded by their CapEx programme and debt facilities.
If a revised CPR puts the field in the 4 or 5 bny barrel territory what price a barrel to pick up 15% and 25% of the field and become operator with TOTAL and Tullow as your partner....
What price for TOTAL to retain control and become operator with purchase of ECO.
All Jimo and predicated on successful drilling. Makes sense to do a small raise at a premium today subject to not becoming like Ithaca and FaR with a blocking holder.

Escargot
Clarkson.plays the fool but isn't really One- even his slap on the producer could cynically be called timing. He had just sold his rights in TG to the beeb to presumably fund his divorce and then got fired from his golden handcuffs to free him up to make a new show and get the moolah from the rights in doing so.

He has great respect for the achievements of the British forces it comes across. Need to look up the St Nazaire one, bought my wife's uncle the book on the first SBS mission written by Paddy Ashdown. He really enjoys such stories.

Instead of sending kids on uselsss degree courses that give them no help in the world of work we could do worse than press them into National Service to learn a trade/complete an apprenticeship.

Escargot
Recently watched Band of Brothers and the privations they went through the shocking losses in that division and the remarkable heroism in the face of such horrible danger is quite breathtaking.

One of my favourite films is A Bridge Too Far as it shows again in horrendous circumstances the futility of war which sadly at times is a necessity. Gallipoli also very good. The bravery of so many to lay down their lives knowingly and despite conscription the numbers.who volunteered to do so show the current drive for material gain and a disposable society in a very poor light indeed.

Schlemiel
Think the market is more cautious after GKP/RKP/PMO/Genel/Tullow(even) and others that have dropped from their peaks.
However, this is probably alot closer to Cove or Dana than any of the above based on market cap and POTENTIAL. The P word being key, today's admission of Hammerhead extending on to Orinduik being the first step to potential becoming tangible. The geophysics on Jethro being very encouraging also.
Don't mind the market taking a while to catch on - confirmation of drill ship and dates will all help along the journey to the drill turning.

Surprised at the absence of reaction on the SP today - Tullow essentially confirmed one discovery and stated the first drill exhibits all the same prospects and they like the look of it. They do play down CoS a bit more than Gil though.
Ultimately very encouraging update.

Hereandnow
Think the 1st well is the Net Cost to Tullow - ECO will still be on hook for $7M. However, given a well takes only 30 days I think this well may include budget for a sidetrack to test the 'complex'.

Valuation does remain something of a mystery but Tullow continue to play it fairly canny. However, their admission that Hammerhead extends and Jethro is essentially an identical prospect is fairly strong evidence of the potential.
Looking at the blobs on slide 31 - the Aurituk/iatuk area next to Hammerhead seems to have enormous potential and with an eye on farm down would be surprised if this is not drilled as the 2nd well.
If both drills are successful it would give us Jethro, Aurituk and possibly Iatuk and Hammerhead. However many barrels our 15% represents x$5-10.
Think the market just needs to digest that. Note Jethro is in as 100m barrels when listed before as a 250m barrel.prospect.
Using 250m for Jethro, 400m for 2nd drill and 150m for Hammerhead extension possibly 120m barrels booked as discovery come July....
Interested to hear others thoughts on discoverable number potential...

Schliemel
Haven't listened to the playback but the questioner asked around unitisation but think it was McCoss who made the 'Commercial qualification. He specifically stated that everyone accepts Hammerhead extends in.

Last question interesting, great answer from Angus McCoss:
Q: with respect to hammerhead, are there any discussions going on with Stabroek around unitisation....
A: There are current no commercial discussions going on around the field we want to make our own discovery first. Then with more than a hint of a smile, however it is widely viewed by all in the industry that Hammerhead extends onto our licence.
Question before good too - why Jethro. A: we identified Hammerhead before Exxon drilled it and see Jethro as a carbon copy Tertiary play withidentical geophysics and are therefore keen to explore it.
So it seems one discovery and another which looks very similar to that already discovered and all that means for CoS etc.

Agree - for Tullow to say H-1 is de-risked or de-risks the block is good news. The seismic held by Orinduik partners on Hammerhead will give a very strong read across to their prospects on our own block. Saying again, Tullow not farming down until after drilling is complete despite I.am sure strong interest is further validation. They alluded to only doing so at The right valuation in the Capital Markets Day (Q&A I think). 12-13 weeks until the drill starts turning and 4-6 weeks after that for initial results.

Just listened to the replay from the HESS presentation to Credit Suisse energy forum.
Much already known. 5 FPSO's and at least 750k bopd from the 12 wells in 4 yrs. Excellent porosity an permeability.
CROCE of 30% p.a. 2025 (Return on capital employed) which over 10yrs is 13x your money back on Liza 1 investment of $3.7bn - so c.$50bn on that field.
Tilpia and Haimira not in the 5bn barrels.
Well drilling takes 30 days and costs one third of deepwater GoM drills.
Truly transformational - Guyana beats the Permian hands down (relevant for potential suitors investment considerations).
Next up - Longtail DST, Yellowtail on Turbot then appraisal of Ranger and Hammerhead. As drills take c.30 days looks like Ranger and Hammerhead activity in March/April. Possibly Hammerhead to coincide with Orinduik activity.
Looking at 30 drill prospects across Guyana and Surinam with 2 rigs to be maintained on block for several years.
Size of the opportunity is immense - equivalent to 2,500 GoM licence blocks.
Several billion prospective barrels still on their radar to find.

We talk alot about TOTAL and Exxon on the board but I was thinking today what of the other majors.On Stabroek it is pretty clear Exxon/Hess are unlikely to sell down -same for CNOOC. So if a major wants access to a hotspot then ours is more advanced than most. I'd say Tullow intend to farm down in H2 once the 2 drills are complete - as if successful the terms will be much improved to a farm down currently. Depending on their appetite to farm down you could have Major X on (25% Tullow stake and 15% ECO), Tullow 35% and TOTAL 25%.

The Major can then act as operator of the field and push the development with the balance sheet capability to act with same swiftness as Exxon on their block. This changes the NPV adjustment due to debt terms majors can access and drives the returns they can make. Would say Shell/BP and others must be very interested in this province and the price per end barrel is likely very attractive even after successful drilling (if we are successful).

Very interested in what Hess and Tullow say today and tomorrow.

Ifonly1
What before the markets officially open you bell end?

maverick
Am terrified of what he may find....not that my posting history makes any difference to the question at hand which is how would he have run Tullow better than current management.

Maverick
Early days to be worrying about such things but they should equate to.the interest held innthefiwld after each has covered their input costs.
Per the earlier chat - can see Total Looking to take a controlling stake in the field. However, seems Tullow aren't farming down until higher up the value curve and that is a pretty strong sign of their own confidence in the field.
Can see ECO being keen to sell just Guyana and go ahead and drill Namibia by using some cash and divvying the rest out in event Guyana continues to deliver.

Droner
That's not the question dummy go back and look at the question? If you can't answer it you're just a bitter armchair quarterback who likes to moan. Hence, not worth the effort. If you can answer it intelligently you may show you have something worth saying instead of the pointless rubbish currently spouted.

Think i mentioned before Jethro is in Wood McKenzie's 5 conventional drills to watch in 2019.

"The Jethro prospect is situated on the Orinduik Block, offshore Guyana. The well target will be 200m boe prospect. Last year saw 3 giant offshore finds, 2 gas and Guyana's Offshore Hammerhead find."

Over on ADVFN, Gersemi found a quote I really liked from the Q3 calls (Exxon or Hess) - Hill said "Hammerhead is a very large structure requiring additional appraisal. Hammerhead is a massive accumulation and a very thick sand package, in fact the single thickest sand package we have drilled on the block."
"What we can say is the results of the DST were good, meaning the reservoir quality is excellent and the reservoir seems to be well connected. "
"You're right to say that Hammerheads accretive to the 4bn barrels and it could jump the queue and be ahead of some of the other phases on the Turbot cluster (making it FPSO 3 in 2023) but we need some additional appraisal before we make that final decision."
That all sounds to me like a good area to have exposure to at this level for this MCAP.