Member Info for InJamesweTrust

Wallact
I'm not sure there is much contact with Exxon although admittedly.none of us know! Tullow are using a jackup drill in Q3 for Kanuku drill.in the Cretaceous.
I contacted Tullow IR about length of time Stems Forth was contracted for and they advised they have kept their options open depending on drill results. That indicates to me although they did not say that there is a further option on Stena Forth after 1st 2 drills. If they take.90 days then likely some knowledge will have been gleaned from the Kanuku drill around Cretaceous modelling and if it confirms their thinking I dare say the drill of Joe will sidetrack and continue down into Rappu.
With the option I think they would then select one of the 4 remaining biggest fields or complexes as a final drill.
Strategy wise, Tullow have modelled Joe AND Jethro very closely to.knowledge of Hammerhead and this makes major bang for buck on a Farm down. Tullow are.not.operator.of Kanuku field so take the Cretaceous risk their first and then use the info for Orinduik.
There was something the other day saying Tullow.are spending $80m in Guyana this year. About $25m is their share.of Jethro, $7-10m seems fair for cost of jackup.on Kanuku leaving $48m which is.about 60% of $80m which is enough for 3 wells at $26m each.
ECO has indicated subsequent wells will cost c.$4m (I think) which is.15% of $26m by my reckoning.
So I.may be a bling optimist/fool but I believe they will (if data supports) target Rappu and another 1 or 2 wells. If they are.not confident they may stop at 2.and farm.down from there.
First 2 drills target 54m barrels net to ECO- even.forgetting the rest of the field at Gil's favoured $8 metric that is $432m or around $2.40 a share.

From Twitter looks like Malcy is interviewing Gil on Tuesday.

Hammerhead may give a kick but not sure a) results will be in before drillship sets sail, or b) Exxon will produce information of sufficient detail to read across. Not like they've been forthcoming so far.
Namibia is for sure separate to Guyana but a Farm.out would have a positive impact.

The BoD didn't quite manage to.make that 90p target then! Just a smidge off it!

Probably in a tight range until news of the rig mobilisation I.would guess. Unless a Farm out.in Namibia first and can't see that before drills this year are complete.
Should tick.up from mobilisation through spud. Interested to hear anyone else's interpretation.of.how.long we have the Arena Forth for.....

Wallact over on the HUR board there has been alot.of chat around orphan assets in the O&G world as a result of environmental change.
For ECO (and partners) Exxon has shown how to monetise Guyana oil quickly. TOTAL will be keen to monetise the field one would think and as I have said makes some sense for them to take ECO share and 15% from Tullow to become operator.
The Tullow payment being back ended to FFD which is debt funded. This gives them 30% of 4bn barrels for what is probably a relative pittance on a $ per barrel basis.
Others will see the potential to take 30% of a major new field (presuming drills come in) and be interested.
For me Tullow have gone for high CoS drills to prove the field and start getting bidders interested in a Farm Out. Their debt position means they can develop quicker if a partner is funding but don't want to sell out too soon without getting the value. Their relative cash position has allowed them to hold.out longer than ECO.

Wellwell good to have you around. A shame Boyzee and Ricfle can't make a return also.

Biffadog
You seek to be an authoritarian remarking as to what does and doesn't go from certain posters. You're frankly delusional if you don't consider it bullying.
Trying to dress things up as defence against the derampers simply demonstrates who psychologically flawed your perception of this stock has become. We are posting on a board of a billion pound company - you may as well piss into a Hurricane as expect posts here to influence the SP.
SiPP there may be previous and I do recognise some posts were over the top but it does.not warrant the coordinated response and the intolerance for anything not along the company line is the main reason I dip into this board much less than before.
Still, given Bob T's dogmatic approach (and continuing lack of News after 18 months) I guess there is a certain symmetry.

While some of the posts from Nigwit may have taken up significant space on the Board, I have to say the personalisation of the attacks on them for simply.posting their views is pretty low. Bringing their business into it and personal info they may not wish divulged from the outside world is regrettable also.
Some want to act to censor the Board and while.Im not going to waste time reading 150 posts a day - his original premise of value being harder to unlock due to institutional and global environmental concerns stands up. Like anything there are other reasons too but jumping on someone with such vitriol because he doesn't how the party line and brings into question the holy writ of HUR's inevitable future greatness is not the right of anyone.
Live and let live and people on here are capable of judging on their own merits

Maverick
Would depend on the fine print. So, ECO is not a listed company in Guyana and any deal would likely be done via NY/London under English Law. However, if there is a change of control clause in some of the licence documentation a charge maybe levied. I'd contend it is unlikely as ECO would be selling to a partner who can accelerate the development and the flow of jobs into Guyana in addition to the rmtax dollars. So it is in the Govt interest to allow such a transaction smooth.passage.

2019 Plan - Discover Oil in Guyana.

Not drill exploratively, DISCOVER OIL

Seems fairly definitive. The beauty for ECO being it doesn't take much of the stuff on Orinduik to smash through our Market Cap. Valued at maybe 25m barrels so far...successful drills targeting 60m net with 540m still to play for....
Game on

Cebo
Not to question your maths but $6bn for 300m barrels with a 19yr horizon say using a $25 breakeven would equate to a 2% IRR before funding costs which even for a major are higher than that. It is also before OpEx or anything else.
Those figures don't see right.

They've stated end May and imagine will stick with it. Gil has stated it should take only a few days. If she can do 7-10 knots then a week at most.
The drill on Kanuku is being done with a jackup I notice so id frankly be astonished if they have the Forth transferring for only 2 drills.
Tullow have played down CapEx spend on wildcats but made clear if they hit oil it can be funded from a different budget line and be called appraisal.
Cash is fungible and terminology can be adapted to suit. Think Tullow will want to farm out before end of year so can see there being 3 or 4 drills on Orinduik this year and it makes sense to complete while the kit is on site.....
Still, the 2 drills target 60m boe net to ECO and if you just take a straight $10-12 a barrel (the uplift on $6-8 being $1 a barrel for undrilled prospects) it is still a handy valuation.

Maverick

They do intend to farm out but not until They have shown value, clear from November Capital Markets Day Q&A I think.
They could get a free carry on 1st two fields after drills.

Maverick
I'm hopeful someone asks the question how long they have the Arena Forth for, I haven't seen any indication of contract length. However, given sunk cost in sailing her to Guyana I'd expect 6 months plus an option giving Tullow time to complete further drills at Orinduik if Jethto/Joe are successful.
They will have time to do analysis as they go to Kanuku afyer 1st two drills, hence wonder if they will drill into Cretaceous from Joe not necessarily targeting Rappu but to retrieve logs and core samples to confirm their understanding of Cretaceous per the seismic.
Think they would like to do 4 wildcat drills on Orinduik this year and then analyse, plan and farm out with potential for appraisal drills later.

Interesting Berenberg use 180m barrels net to ECO (30% of CPR) at $6.50 a barrel for their valuation to produce an unrisked value of £5.17 per share.
If the partners drill Rappu (I think a 3rd and possible 4th drill is to be done after Kanuku) and the Hammerhead appraisal shows much higher quantities of oil (presuming all endeavours are successful) ECO would already hit the 180m barrel metric Bernberg use to get £5.17

Wessex
Tales of Armageddon for the environment have generally been out, look at Al Gore documentary for a start. However, there is undeniably an issue and governments are now beginning to legislate. Thing is, until the EU says to China we will charge an environmental levy on your exports they will continue to pollute the hell out of the environment and European businesses will simply become more uncompetitive in relative terms.
China gas for a long time paid little or no heed to intellectual property, health and safety or the environment and it really needs countries to start taking a stand.
It has used this disregard to play its game of catch up and now run huge surpluses.
Still, so long as Germany can sell them cars they're not.likely to rock the boat much.

SiPP
Shows they have the cash to come calling if and when they think FB WoS is a goer.

SiPP
Think Anadarko is a different kettle of fish. Big acreage but low CapEx and well life means quick pay back of dollars invested. New tech likemplug and.perf is reducing the breakeven all the time also.
The difference with a big fixed rig development is the time it takes, the huge CapEx all or nothing bet that has a.much longer payback horizon.
Hess make clear it's interest in Stabroek repays full investment inside 3yrs at $50 oil (from memory) then the rest just hits the bottom line for as long as folk are buying oil.
Spending multi billions for a payback commencing in 10yrs which then needs to repay CapEx is less common I dare say.
There is of course the multi FPSO potential WoS (if environment permits) which I have long advocated as being self funding.

Biffa
Alternative opinions are still permitted on the BB. I dare saying can believe in the long term bear case for oil and still see the potential for HUR to increase in value.
However, that increase in value is inevitably tempered by the move of capital from fossil fuels to renewables in some allocation strategies. The potential for orphan reserves with no demand to.support extraction is real and is why BoE are considering how to stress test exposure to the carbon economy for UK banks.
HUR's problem is exacerbated by the market perception a out how long it will take them to.prove the porosity of the basement WoS and how.long it takes subsequently to build an FFD solution if using fixed platforms.
Happy to hear the above debunked from a technical perspective but not just an assertion that I'm a bear trying to influence the share price of a billion pound company for my own benefit which is barely credulous.