Member Info for InJamesweTrust

Drilling units (rigs or ships) are often delayed as it is difficult to be precise about time required to drill into rock and what will occur when you do. Hurricane had to wait along time is Transocean slotted in a job with their rig last year which delayed drilling for a significant period as the job proved extremely difficult (drilling a relief well for a cock up at another field so 2 units were out of commission).

The frustrating thing here is the operator.of the vessel is a partner on the block and shouldn't be taking the piss and ought at least have the courtesy to.appraise Eco and Total of when to expect the ship to be free.

Hopefully she is on her way and I reckon she'll spud before end June.

Wonder if she needs to go into harbour for a quick once over before being back on station for potentially a prolonged period. May need a classification survey or other such activity performed but they don't take long.

Any news on the Stena Forth?

Keith Hill.meant the 8th June. Gil said she would sail last week of May so she has been delayed with Tullow. Ideally a spud w/c 17th June then 20 days so mid July for first phase results. Gil had clearly stated end June previously.

Great news if she is under way. Disappointing at the absence of update from Tullow to partners on timing. I'd reckon 17 days for transit and first results now.mid July.

Chablard
If you mean I prefer not to gloss over mistakes then that is correct.
Surprised at the muted reaction of SP today as it is a.major achievement but it seems the market thinks it warrants a fall.
Wonder what it would take for an interested company to hold shorts to suppress the SP between now and first 3 months of EPS completing....based on daily volumes.
70m shares selling 1.5m a day heavily into the.open....

Corral
I'm sure he wouldn't, it was but a joke.
Wonder how atmosphere at AGM was?
Hopefully attendees enjoyed.

Wellwell
I vote No.4

While not taking anything Way from the achievement of FOIL, the press release is very sparse. Perhaps they are buying time and working through night into this morning (it's what Morgan Stanley grads do) to cram it into a presentation for release pre AGM. Otherwise, it gives little to go on.

It is though a real risk gate successfully passed, systems work and oil is flowing but the real info is how does it flow compared to the model and do the wells communicate pressure shut ins. Big question is around permeability and if the two wells communicate strongly and flow is as or better than modelled they will be game changeds for how the field is valued.
I think even until this is known, any Warwick effect an SP will be muted.

They've said all along they'll start slow and build so they can understand the reservoir. There will be shut ins to.monitor bottom hole pressure and pressure build up and how the two wells communicate.
Someone better acquainted than me can I'm sure explain more fully.

Number of shares traded not huge, I wonder if 'hot money'is moving to HUR in expectation of a FOIL RNS before their AGM tomorrow. A trade I considered myself....

One of the benefits of this stock should be the fundamentals beating macro concerns. Majors and PE oil investors look through short term gyrations and will pay for resources which are either producing or can be monetized quickly.
Guyana can be monetized quickly with a lower CapEx FPSO solution (which TOTAL state is a strength). Hence if the drills find oil the basis of the company changes and values are.predicated on longer term value assumptions than PoO today. Alas, momentum trading and automated trading rules sell oil stocks on a falling PoO if there is insufficient counter activity to trump their algorithmic conclusions on the sector.
Gil should really be coming out to talk to Stena Forth timing and it is.poor form if Tullow are not keeping partners informed.
Oil in ground seems consistently valued at $5-10 and by end of summer Eco may have >100m barrels confirmed and 500m plus contingent on its books.
Price drop is a pain in the arse but should be short term.

This is a transcript from Total meeting there was some chatter on a few.months ago. Little old Guyana gets multiple name checks from the board of TOTAL.
Also interesting that they paid $6-7 a barrel for 2P replacement reserves via the Maersk deal for more expensive to.operate North Sea assets.
Finally they talk quite a bit around their expertise in delivering FPSO solutions for production.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4239520-totals-tot-ceo-patrick-pouyanne-q4-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript

Wallact
Think many of us are in the same boat as chances appear to be so high for a drilling programme. I really like the confirmation of the 3rd drill option. I maintain this is in addition to hitting Cretaceous on Jethro and time taken (if they do it) for Rappu on Joe. If they go for another prospect then the summer could prove up a pretty chunky net number to ECO.
KH certainly seems a confident fellow.

Nomadic
$2bn net is equivalent to c.£7.50 - 8.00 a share??
I think most would settle for that.
Potential is obviously fantastic but they need to get Stena Forth underway and then they need to find the oil.
Much will depend on what they do from a) drilling Cretaceous targets and b) potentially adding further drills post the first (2(+2).
First drill news end June looking tightish if drill ship doesn't sail soon.

Biffa
Not sure the GWA drill is (yet) the catalyst. There are already 2bn barrels of 2C and GWA can only add 3-400m or 20% of that number realistically. Hence, until the fields show production capability details such as FOIL rns and the juicier info about flow rates and production being favourable and as per the model done with (Schlumberger was it) on expected field performance relative to drilling area.
For anyone attending, this isn't a bad question for the AGM if not covered before by RNS.
Think a strong FOIL statement could be quite a mover for the SP.

I can then see ECO using some of the cash to match input from a major (c.$300m each) to fund 5 significant drills in Namibia acreage in return for farm out.

Believe there are further options beyond the 2nd drill. Word for word comms with Tullow IR
Me: For AGM Q&A I had hoped to ask around the timing of the Stena Forth contract and how long the initial Guyana contract runs for and if there are any subsequent options on the vessel?
Tullow IR: The SF is currently being used in Ghana and it then contracted for our two operated wells in Guyana. We are not committed past those activities and are therefore keeping our.options open depending on the results of the well and our work programme.

So I'd suggest they want to drill into Cretaceous on 1st well and potentially 2nd well also. Post this, they will have data from this and the Repsol Cretaceous drill so can see them drilling one or two.of the larger Cretaceous prospects.
This can maximise their value for farm out if they are confident of the data.
I can see the attraction to Chevron who.would have spent $33bn on Anadarko with 1.45bn boe reserves then taking ECO and 25% from Tullow and driving an FPSO solution along with accelerated appraisal drilling of rest of field.
This would get them more reserves than Anadarko (based on CPR) for probably a tenth of the upfront cost (cash to ECO) with Tullow being carried on all drilling and potential to monetise inside 2.5yrs.

Long Wait
I would suggest Schlumberger are receiving a mix of payment and equity interest for their work.in Morocco. The payment likely covers or comes close to covering costs in a continuing challenging business environment for them and allows them to retain key staff at little or no cost and provides a basin for staff to gain experience in diverse areas of exploration.
Hope the TE-5 commercially sees the shares recover somewhat to give people an ok out - many must have averaged down by now from the heady days.

Dark knight
As my handle would suggest I bought the TE-6 hype and got into Sound in the 40's. However, after the spike to £1 and fall to the 50s once it hit the 80s again and news on TE-7 seemed to be perpetually delayed I decided to sell and invest elsewhere some of it HUR. Hasn't been without its ups and downs or mistakes but there is proven oil flow and HUR have secured the funds and established the infra to test how long and freely it flows for in an effort to banish the FB doubters.
Geology can still surprise and nothing is a one way bet.