Member Info for InJamesweTrust

Let's hope it isn't anything like how Sound Energy has turned out!! While doubt is always there until the drill turns, I.keep coming back to the huge grin on Ian Clokes face (EVP exploration at Tullow) and the speed with which TOTAL paid the $12.5m so they could get on with planning strategy.

Disappointing news and a helluva fall from the highs of 3.5yrs ago. Jp saying he is confident doesn't do too much for serenity but key to model the value that is there and get cracking on monetizing it.

Interested observer as many predict current gas in place to be worth more than current SP. However, I'd be concerned that it is gas in place and not viable reserves given tightness of sand and challenges.
Good luck to all those holding.

Fox

Yes there will be but timeline to monetise the assets are important and a big plus of the Anadarko deal is the current production which is sustained with CapEx that repays very quickly.
Some of the longer term CapEx decisions are more challenging but am sure BP just announced a multi billion one in Russia

The MS five times price was much quoted around the time of the note and was either 370p or 530p I forget which but these do stick in the head for some reason. The 530p may be the Edison figure in which case discount and 370p is more likely Morgan Stanley one.

Looking at the map on pg30 of the CPR, it seems 3 Cretaceous prospects are closest to Jethro - Kumaka, MJ-3 and KG. These are around 5-8km away if a well can sidetrack to that distance?

The relative volumes are 667.5m, 230.1m 633.5m barrels of oil equivalent per the CPR estimates.

Hence, drilling these could take the first drill targeted volumes from 214.5m barrels for Jethro solely to a range from 444.6m (Jethro and MJ-3) to 897.6m (Jethro and Kumaka).

This takes the net to ECO from 34m boe to 66-131m boe- so take Gils $8 and....

If they use the data to target Rappu then it got a from 148.3m for Joe to 684m nor combined. Higher end of both drills targeting the 4 zones is 1,581m boe or 236m boe net to ECO.

Guyana production in 3 years so around 2022 it would seem - these were dates mentioned at Capital Markets Day I think.

Chevron pulled out of Anadarko and may be looking for an alternate approach....

Up 28.57% on TSX which is bonkers somebody has heard something or there is a very fat fingered error. Should make for an interesting close and an even more interesting Monday morning!

£2 very conservative if the drills are successful.
Hit to the SP if not.
Mentioned working in NE of Orinduik but given how much Tullow need the drills to hit in order to maximise farm.out and accelerate monetization they will be extremely confident in their choices.

Jaykay
On the train back from London and simply typing for expediency. Agree hook up and commissioning take the time they take and chasflow would work from there.$52 oil still equates to $30 a barrel free cashflow for HUR.

Biffa
That long game was production Sept'18, with cash used to drive and order long lead for a 2nd larger EPS. Then source an FPSO from the charter market without the outlay we have made on AM.
That outlay was required due to uncertainty but with a producing field as cashflow security (it could fund 2 charter rates for FPSO) then it would potentially be onstream mid-20 if the chips had fallen that way.
I think that was more value accretive than the route taken certainly.

Biffa
Through the purchase of bonds and stock an interested parrycould quickly build a meaningful stake in HUR and mount a bid with say a 20% holder who may have a side agreement to exit at an inflated price further down the line. Once they get past 25% (easy if.one party holds 20%) then it is very unlikely other bidders would want a thorn in their side.
This worked in prior TO situations.
It is interesting how CA are.lambasted but Kerogens are above reproach.

Biffa
Through the purchase of bonds and stock an interested parrycould quickly build a meaningful stake in HUR and mount a bid with say a 20% holder who may have a side agreement to exit at an inflated price further down the line. Once they get past 25% (easy if.one party holds 20%) then it is very unlikely other bidders would want a thorn in their side.
This worked in prior TO situations.
It is interesting how CA are.lambasted but Kerogens are above reproach.

Biffa
Don't think they are the white knight many hold them out to be and personally think more like a Trojan horse. Time will tell.

Of Kerogens is strong clearly! Did I read it wrong or did he sell the lot straight off?

Cebo
I agree it is better to get it right, than start then stop and have everyone wondering if the permeability/porosity is crap.

Did Malcy not suggest in a blog that FOIL may actually slip from H1? It would then be late.
I'm not sure of timelines but 2 months from hook up to commission and then some testing they may not announce until there is sustained flow for a period of days/weeks instead of calling the first drip.

Think He spends quite a bit of time here and may also have been passing through in way back from Namibia. Could also be meeting partners to discuss strategy - wonder if JV has a board and if so where it meets.

So they are doing Cretaceous under Jethro and there.may be a sidetrack also - funded for it just in case. That really sounds like Rappu after Joe to me using data from Jethro drill.
Exciting times indeed.

Begins to show the cost of the delays of getting the FPSO on site which to this day have yet to be explained.
But it's ok it was Bob's idea So if he does something to cost the shareholder money it must be for a good reason and he deserves the benefit of the doubt and all that.