Member Info for InJamesweTrust

Also they need to make money so if the bid is low the price comes down. Sellers are price takers generally as you either accept it.now hold. Mms need to.make trades and (without having level 2) people are looking for a lower entry point.
Folk do also see opportunity elsewhere and I know some have made >50% in less than 4 weeks from being out of HUR until hook up is under way.
The SP has held up better than I expected and seems (famous last words probably) to have a floor around the 43p ish range.
Let's be honest success on hook up and flowing oil give the stock great potential returns if they're delivered.

Cebo
And some on ECO- no idea where the Spirit has come from but very welcome.
HUR should do well running into hook.up and FOIL and very well.if results from FOIL are good.

Just reflects closing price in Canada.

Tullow.need the divi to spread the institutional shareholder base. The debt will start to come down as production ramps up and their share of CapEx drilling in Guyana will be take care of via farm.down of c.20% post first two drills.

Jimo

My read of the note based on what I have seen here:

Jethroi Drill - 110p unrisked 250m barrels
2nd drill - 160p unrisked so around 350m barrels

My feeling is to add the complex likely bigger than Jethro so 175p unrisked (400m barrels).
2nd drill likely to be one of the 3 big ones so 600m barrels or 240p risked. This may target a 2nd zone let's stick with a 250m barrel size so 110p unrisked.

That after the drills is 795p unrisked with no value attributed to Hammerhead (if not drilled) or to the remaining resource potential we would be leaving on the table. One can see where they start to get to 1140p potential.

Those drills could be substantially complete in early August. They will attract suitors and Cove went for a 110% premium.

Wonder what they have in store on Guyana today - my money says not much more than we already know but some confirmation around Hammerhead would be a bit of a game changer if forthcoming. They are due to appraise it and must have a sense how much is on theirs and our licences.

Hereandnow
Based on $8 a barrel, Orinduik is worth more than $500m just if the first drill hits never mind the 2nd zone. Say 150m Hammerhead on our block and 250m for Jethro (disregarding the complex) that is 60m barrels to ECO and $480m.

The 2nd drill should be Aurituk/Iatuk these are close together and a sidetrack to Hammerhead maybe possible. There is a reason we have a hugely complex drill ship and it is to target multiple zones with the same drill while managing the complications that entails. The team have done it on TEN recently and know how the vessel works.
If.you can confirm the furthest likely tip of Hammerhead while drilling Aurituk and Iatuk having drilled Jethro and hit the complex too then that is alot of oil by Sept based on 2x45 days of drilling and fantastic use of the budget.

He did mention Tertiary impact but was very much a passing comment. They must be using it to assess multi zone drilling options but Gustavvson may not have officially signed off volumes yet.
Very modest predictions and he was slippinginto the definitive again - we will be bought out of Guyana for our oil going so far as to name the likely suitors. Would be surprised if BP/Shell were notin that group too considering what they could potentially pick up an interest in 1.5-2.0 bn boe for.
Roll on Exxon day then news of 2nd drill, timing of Hammerhead appraisal etc

Think it is interesting there is not yet further info on how the CPR views the Tertiary opportunities and implication for resources. It is getting on for 6 months since Hammerhead and some of this info must now have been processed- see the Tullow graphic showing Tertiary and Cretaceous prospects overlay. I Wonder if they don't want to leak the info but they surely have an idea.on the likes.of Aurituk and potential for Jethro complex but feel Tullow would rather downplay and then blow the bloody doors off.
There should be some decent news flow from Exxon and Hess the n drilling info and Hammerhead appraisal.in run.up to Tullow AGM at end April swiftly followed by the rig mobilisation.
Will try to listen TO Exxon call in full.on Thur night on the train.

For me not a bad thing if they don't take it to production, the time it would take to crystallize the value and the upscaling of cost in the meantime makes it a fairly challenging proposition to add value versus a sale.
When compared to a sale and using proportion of funds to explore and find oil in Namibia. First drill prospect being 820m barrels there
With 100% ownership and whatever one places as a value per barrel it would be a significant further pay out if they found oil.
Divi in meantime allows cash to be redirected elsewhere too.

Maverick
If we drill 2 zones with each drill we will have uncovered 4 discoveries in fairly short order. If one presumes 250+250 for Jethro and the complex and 650+250 for iatuk and Aurituk that's 220m to ECO with 230m (380+ on revised CPR) still to drill for.

Take $8 and $2 for each set of figures and it is pretty handy. Dividend 85% and it leaves $350m for drilling Namibia. So an 8-10 drill programme.

If we find oil then alot of oil companies will see the benefit of ready made replacement reserves in what promises to be a major basin with the economies of scale that entails.
So the tail of Hammerhead is in our block if that is 300m barrels and we have 45m that alone is £2.00 a share. Add in a first drill that proves a complex and it is remarkable.
The crazy thing is, they could repeat the trick a year hence in Namibia if all goes well so could be a double pay day after a divi of cash later this year if we.prove oil and sell Guyana.
His ebullience about future prospects is very evident.

Exxon have an investor day next week, would expect some update on timing of Hammerhead appraisal (early April at a guess) and further progress on the block.

Nomadic
If they are targeting a TEN like complex with the first well the 26pm barrels is merely a teaser. Let's say 500m so as not to get too wild
In addition.they target iatuk which is 670m barrels (and may be able to target Amala and/or Aurituk at same time).
That is potentially 1.2bn barrels or 180m net to ECO. Any deal would need to value that not yet explored ($1-2 per barrel I guess) and I hope the province is attractive enough to bring in players outside the partnership.
Total will be in driving seat.
I also hope the market stays above stall speed until Q4 to give us time to complete the game.

AdUK
It is very easy for the company to say any work done does not directly relate to the Spirit deal. They can simply contend it was future.proofing or some other such banal explanation. Until they explain the delay from the Sept date for being on site then it remains a somewhat murky area.
If I've reinvested (which likely I will have) by the AGM I should expect to be there to ask RT about the 'interview and mention that last year I was told it was a misquote.
It was clear at AGM that Sept was no longer a goer and with the data room having been open long time the Spirit deal was likely under discussion long before it was signed. Heads of Terms to change AM spec could have been signed before the final deal with refund from HUR from cashflow if they do not finalise. It remains a very good deal for Spirit from an exploration expenditure perspective.

Look at the face on Ian Cloke at the Capital Markets Day in Nov'18. He is beside himself with excitement for Guyana. They also said they would not farm down until they could get the right value.

If the CPR is nearer 5bn with Tertiary, a major can get 2bn barrels of reserves for their replacement calculation for a pretty attractive price by picking up 40% of this and they can drive the project at their own pace as.operator.
Obviously this is predicated on successful drills but Tullow appear very confident.

Maverick
Short of an incredible offer to carry them I think it will be after. The prize is simply too great and I think that is why 2 or 3 drills are planned instead of more. When they mention taking stock after the initial drills I think they mean field offers for a farm-in if the oil is there.
They are targeting 2 zones with the first drill and Aurituk and iatuk could possibly be targeted by the same drill too. That is a great deal of oil which they can sell a chunk of knowing ECO may sell also allowing a new player to come in and take control of the field.
There must be many majors who'd like a bite of the cherry if this shows anything close to the potential of Stabroek.
Value wise - the CPR is likely to rise with the addition of tertiary prospects and the fields can be monetized quickly - pay back in less than 3 years at $50 oil for partners on Liza and 30% return figures (Cash return in capital employed). Carrying Tullow is done through CapEx budget not upfront payment but ECO is upfront.
If the CPR is 5bn barrels what price a 35-40% stake from them both - Tullow could potentially get carried on 2 fields and still hold 35-40% of a huge field (2 developments could add 150k bopd to Tullow inside 3yrs at no cost to them).

For any TO (sale of Guyana don't think they will relinquish namibia) then I believe other majors will want a piece of this. They can limit equity by giving Tullow a free carry to value needed which is just carrying cost of debt which to a.major is pennies.
If the drills hit then potential for SP is as Malcy says mind boggling

Trying to get a sense of the zones drill could target- if 2nd drill is iatuk then it brings in Aurituk, Amatuk, DJ and KD. Amatuk, DJ and KD total 1.45bn barrels.
This is using page 29 of the CPR and 11 of the Corp presentation.
Would be great to see these tied to slide 31 of the Tullow results presentation in a day one could rotate to get a sense of 3-D depth.
By the look of it directional drilling could target multi zones in each drill and I wonder if this is part of the reason for taking something as advanced as Stena Forth to give them.maximum options on the drill front.

I'm almost hoping there is a TO thus taking the decision out of my hands around when to hold em and when to fold em to quote the great Kenny Rogers.
If the drills are successful and they target Aurituk that and JL are >900m barrels. So more than 135m barrels net to ECO.
JL is a TEN like complex (usingbsame drillingbis and team) and TEN is almost a billion barrels.
Aurituk is I think next to Iatuk and combined these must be closer to 1.5bn barrels. I can see the 2 drills targeting 4 zones as I reckon Tullow is targeting an auction of Orinduik while it then drills Kanuku - Tullow just need a carry but to cement status as operator someone needs our 15%.....