Member Info for InJamesweTrust

As we are into April now it seems we are 6-7 weeks away from Arena Forth setting sail to target Jethro and Joe with the possibility of a Cretaceous play thrown in of the data and time available on rig warrant.
Hence, an experience team who know the rig well are looking at targeting 460m barrels with a potential push to 790m if Rappu included by end of July with first well known end June.
I'd be interested to know what percentage of hydrocarbon accumulation by volume the CPR assumes. Hammerhead rough calls indicate around 2% but the range is apparently 2-5% with some exceptional fields showing above 10% (taken from CPR).
All in exciting times and more info/clarity on Stena Forth sail away from Tullow AGM (3 weeks on Friday) I expect.

For me the between the lines messaging is interesting- they will have the first drill booked for 42 days and the second a similar period. Exxon are completing drills in around 20 days and then performing extended testing.
Gil specifically mentioned the 20 days and I wonder if they fancy a 3rd prospect - whether it be Rappu or one of the riskier prospects if they core some Cretaceous samples to confirm their geoseismic by drilling on post hitting Tertiary on first/second drill.

Spudding Jethro 1st June and they want to drill both by end July. Surprised if they don't go down to Cretaceous for one of them- makes sense for Rappu underneath Jo.
Either way high chance of success on 400m barrels out of a possible 4bn for the licence.
Gil hinting strongly at having 2 discoveries and then corporate activity following on quickly. I Wonder what the Tertiary will tell them.about the Cretaceous.

Taken from Sempstrata.org- stratigraphic traps III, A treatise of petroleum geology, atlas of oil and gas fields. It is a collection of 18 papers discussing geology and structure of fields.

The chicontopec field is in the Tampico-Misantla basin. Sandstone reservoir lying updip from.offshore Golden Lane fields.
The Elk-Poca field from the Appalachian basin of West Virginia (Blue ridge mountains....West Virginia....finest lasybstrabget to blue water - sorry I digress) is trapped by an ipso sandstone pinchout.
Cretaceous Cacao field from Brazil (Esposito Santo basin) is in an emotional high adjacent to a submarine canyon with the trap in a coastal alluvial fan which produces oil.
Burbank field in Anadarko basin is trapped in an updip pinchout of.multistoried sands.
Richardson Taylor fields of Williston Basin North Dakota are trapped in sandstone draped across an anticline on an upthrown block. The train is a faulted anticline whichncuts across several reservoirs of sandstone.

So.updip traps and anticlines sealing multiple reservoirs. Some of the papers may be interesting diagrammatically relative to the detail in the CPR. Might try to look some out....

Bear in mind it is a 4 factor analysis, so with a 100% chance of carbonn charge the remaining factors are 70-80% with the difference between 22% and 43% being the chance of a seal changing between 40-80%. On the higher seal indicators it is the use of Hammerhead comparisons which raise this - as argued below the Cretaceous success indicates there is a likely read across there also but Gustavsson notsigning off on it and Exxon under no obligation to share their info. People in the industry talk and am sure Tullow/Total have some in to the folk that worked on some of the Stabroek drills.

Bear in mind it is a 4 factor analysis, so with a 100% chance of carbonn charge the remaining factors are 70-80% with the difference between 22% and 43% being the chance of a deal changing between 40-80%. On the higher seal indicators it is the use of Hammerhead comparisons which raise this - as argued below the Cretaceous success indicates there is a likely read across there also but Gustavsson notsigning off on it and Exxon under no obligation to share their info. People in the industry talk and am sure Tullow/Total have some in to the folk that worked on some of the Stabroek drills.

So AM advfn there is a q on calculating volume. Relative to size of for for Hammerhead at 1sq.km. The CPR states up to 5% volume in a field so 1sq.km is 1m sq metres. With a 67m payzone that is 67m cubi metres. Multiply by 5% then a barrel of oil is 0.1587cubic metres so divide by that. For a sq.km you get 21m barrels. The volume is apparently 2-5% so looks like CPR is at the lower end of this range in the calculation metrics used here. Not sure of other fields.
For a 30sq.km field it is (about) 250-630m barrels.

I'm fairly astonished the reaction was not a bit stronger. Think the bigbgains are POST FOIL as info creeps out but thought hook up would do a bit more than 0.4%!
Creep up a bit to FOIL but the big money seems to be on the oil flowing.
For the drills - how much are the 2C barrels valued at currently and what will adding another 350m make to SP?
Without the EPS showing the FB works on the WoS rock it seems the market is relatively unmoved.
All being well it must one day rocket if/when the concept is proved.

The SP is up.a bit but reaction fairly muted which surprises me and points to all the money being on EPS flow with a bump in SP along the way for FOIL being announced.
Ironically, I can see the results of the EPS being somewhat overshadowed by an early bid as some potential suitors may have an idea of the reservoir performance ahead of other market participants.
In terms of reaction, some other oilers are up.more today/yesterday on HUR without such momentous news.

Think they can take the Jethro data and tweak the planned drill to decide which direction to sidetrack and drill down from. The geo/seismic should be sufficient to get them broadly in range where they hit Joe so they can sidetrack once Jethro is better analysed.
They are supposed to be targeting a complex under Jethro but haven't seen much commentary on that. I'd hope to see updated presentations coming through shortly.

Dare say there is bit of push and shove among the partners around what is the best to drill. Ultimately, hitting oil is important but I cant really see what the complex is we are targeting on the first drill from the seismic.
Bit concerned if they don't target the 2nd zone of drill 2 but Tullow are keen to make the block look prospective and then farm out on strong terms while ECO are keen to maximise now.
If they can hit 5-600m barrels of oil and shoe the prospectivity of the block for the other 3.5bn barrels then it makes our stake pretty valuable. I think they may try to sneak a 3rd drill.

I'd tend to agree hook up could see this into the 60s.

Hammerhead/iatuk may go into Kanuku as week. Was it Gil who.mentioned Repsol as a potential suitor also.

Interesting that isn the nature of the survey. Bodes well.
Perhaps if he is doing the London loop next week we shall hear more from Gil about drill targets for the second drill.
Whilst we have a drillships it makes sense to drill a deeper target - iatuk - perhaps going Aurituk or even the Hammerhead extension first.

Itsyou
This is likely to guide where they drill next to test the boundary and/or size of Hammerhead optimally. Is it possible to do an overlay of the Orinduik borders (if you have time) think coordinates may be in the CPR.

I can't see past iatuk frankly for the second drill. Sidetrack to either Hammerhead or Aurituk and you are looking at probably 800m barrels plus. Much will depend in the geo but if they intend to farm out you have to think Tullow want to maximise the barrels found.
However, given Exxon success any find should drive a major market response.

For many £1 Will represent a good profit and a pre-determind top slicing point so fairly natural to retreat from the initial assault on 3 figures. There should be decent news flow between now and spud as already mentioned with a couple added-
- Yellowtail/Pluma results
- Hammerhead evaluation
- Hess results
- selection of 2nd drill location (hope one of the big 3)
- confirmation around size of secondary targets
- more detail on potential of new fields
- revised CPR including Hammerhead extension, this is an important one as nothing so far shows how much of the blob is on our patch. May not be I Tullows interests to release publicly but is sure in Gils a d ECO's
- Tullow AGM in late April
- rig starts to mobilise in May. Usually this is delayed somewhat but hopefully Tullow a estimate is conservative and we may see it move earlier.

The CPR on Hammerhead extension would be a quick win and if not mentioned beforehand is one I will ask at Tullow AGM.

SiPP
Enjoy Rio - that is some holiday.

Biffa
Where my funds are or are not is not really something you can claim intimate knowledge of. From one aspect yes I did sell my holding here and buy ECO - I didn't mention doing it myself below so not sure that makes me smug.
I did suggest elsewhere not on here ECO was a good buy in the 30s back in Dec.
I'm not manipulating anything as this size of market simply can't be and my post was not negative.
I advised someone yesterday to buy HUR and as for missing the run to 48p who cares I sold out around that level and having done well elsewhere when I buy back it will be on the value proposition of HUR versus others (including diversification) not what I bought or sold at previously.

Biffa
Don't be ridiculous and pick a post to moan about.

How is "there is a floor of 43p which if the plan is delivered gives great potential returns" in any way talking down the stock. I'm really keen to hear the answer.

The famous last words is simply a rejoinder to the danger of making any sort of projection as Keynes said, the marker can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent - which is why it is dangerous to.make projections. It is not talking the stock down.

Stop taking anything not posted by rampy ramptastical and his pie in the sky dreams as being mortally wounding to a stock with 2bn shares in issue and a MCAP approaching £1bn.

I don't presume people act on what I say a message board is for messages not for you to censor by jumping down people's throats who don't just puke out your preferred party message.