Member Info for InJamesweTrust

Droner
Perhaps you should give us a precis of what in the last 2-3 years the Board has done wrong and what you would have done differently when running a multi-billion company.

There'll be alot of people in here for whom high 60's represents a 100% profit. I considered selling yesterday when the opening failed to emulate the rise in Canada but to be honest I'm happy to hold and bought a chunk both last week and early this week (selling HUR to do so).

We have the Tullow update next week then 2 weeks to Exxon investor day. My expectation is Tullow have decided on the 2nd drill and if they have selected Aurituk then it will be hard to get away without some comment on the aims of establishing the connectivity and talking more about the seismic.
From the info I've seen they've kept it fairly to themselves which fields in what zones border the Hammerhead boundary and again, if confirming drill plans I'd expect a bit more on this. Would expect more on how Jethro may open up a TEN like complex as Gil has alluded to.
The market may have priced in a 7.5% share of a 500m boe Hammerhead field at $4-5 a share but there is also our own drilling and confirmation of what Hammerheads actual size is to come. With news on the TEN like qualities and Aurituk the market may need to gets its calculator back out pretty quick.
News can come at any time so happy to sit and wait here as think (Imo) there will be a good flow of info.

Divecentre
Contracts should be pretty clear and the concepts are well developed so there shouldn't be much need for litigation as it is a long term partnership. I've seen LDs dealt with and no recourse to courts over some decent sized contracts (bigger than Bluewater one).

Divecentre
I'd be surprised if their not and hope they are as intend to buy back in most likely in next 10 days if times become a little clearer.
As for reimbursables - contracts usually have a delivery timeline and this one is likely no different. Beyond a certain time point BW can put HUR in danger financially if no agreed delivery window.
BW are incentivised for early delivery (we presume bybearnjng the day rate sooner) and will.likely also be due liquidated damages for failure to perform beyond a certain hook up/AM delivery date.
This presume the contract didn't undergo a late change last summer to see other work completed.
Interesting to see BW 1st quarter results if they reserve any cash for potential litigation but numbers may only extend to fraction of day rate and be immaterial to cash HUR has lost and P&L for Bluewater.

Genghis
Yep - subbies can screw even the best project. Some of this seems bad luck but weather windows are clearly considered tough this time.of year for a reason. Shame it is being done in Jan/Feb not Sept.
There is.plenty we dont know and never shall about the circumstances.

SiPP
Having a contractor perform work is fine but Neil Platt is responsible as is RT for making sure it is done to the appropriate standard. I'm not sure the BoD can be exonerated as something delayed arrival of the vessel on station from Sept to January and this delay has resulted in them facing tougher weather conditions.
The go/go-to decision will be the bod' s not Bluewaters I'd wager and in their desire to hook up may have picked a marginal window which has meant they are unlucky time wise.
Also, I do wonder if the 'spare' rope had already been through the ringer with the rest fit in Dubai or had other such stress.
Some of it is down to bad luck but that bad luck is also down to timing.
Timing is in danger of getting close to the wire in terms of FOIL in H1 and now looks much later than anyone expected. My concern is where are they on contingency based.on extra time in yard that has not been RNS'able (kept unusually quiet given prior guidance) the trip to Algericas and the time in Rotterdam.
As Then his says, cash is king and I hope they still have sufficient if the rope takes a while to arrive.

Nigwit
Fwiw having just read your post it seems fairly balanced. Not sure anyone could claim their confidence isn't dented a little.
Was enough for me to sell out entirely and deploy funds elsewhere until FOIL gets closer.

Cebo
Depends what news comes on Hammerhead and 2nd drill location and how this is delivered. Tullow update next week could see us near the 80-90p plus if positive.
Pre drill can see it above 100p...It's been a helluva run so far.

Drone - you're quite frankly a moron. To consider Exxon are lying to the market on monetising Guyana and pying no heed to the facts as they are today not 10yrs ago. If you lost money back then, shame I hope you made it back. As for now invest or don't but in a years time why not come back and tell us all how pie in the sky it is but in the meantime put a sock in it.

Certainly interesting that Exxon can't seem to miss on Stabroek - here is hoping we have similar success on Orinduik. Having some seismic over Stabroek (400km sqaure I think) to analyse some of the similarities between the licences should really help Tullow/Total/ECO understand and be confident in what they're looking at.

I'd suggest Tullow strategy is normally to farm down but with such prospective acreage it seems they are keen to hold on until after a discovery is confirmed - I dare say in the hope they might get close to a full carry for first field development solution if drilling is successful.

If selling down who might be interested - well everyone but I dare say TOTAL would be most keen. Say the first drills show a complex and a discovery and then Hammerhead overlap such that our 15% had 100m barrels confirmed. Same again from Tullow would give TOTAL 200m barrels with potential for another 700m barrels (30% of a 3bn field) what price would they pay for such potential reserves I wonder......

Drone
There is a new CEO for a start and management have clearly stated they all look to reduce debt, a keybdrag on SP and pay a divi which will attract more PI/institutional holders.
They have also clearly laid out the strategy for increasing production, how they are using the current low price oil services environment to get maximum bang for buck on exploring and how the break even price of the portfolio relative to PoO is improving.
With Guyana they have 60% of one of the most eagerly anticipated blocks in the world - which Exxon are showing can be monetized inside 3 years. Potentially adding 200k bopd and where after the first two drills they May get close to a full carry for development of first field by farming down.

The jump is interesting but with the Jethro drill due in 14 weeks and the Tullow update due in 10 days there is a lot to come. Looks like 2nd Tullow drill will be on Orinduik and possible Aurituk (next to Hammerhead). I wonder if this is the same layer as Hammerhead or part of a complex in which the size could be very inetresting. At the same time it seems Exxon will be looking at Hammerhead once testing is finished on Haimira/Tilapia. This was their no.1 priority of 3 key ones on the licence. That indicates an April/May timeline for Exxon drilling and potentially a July timeline for Tullow to drill. After their meeting next week, Tullow are not due to update until late april so dare say some interesting news should be out next week.

Listening to the Exxon and Hess calls last week was again interesting. Noticed in the Hess call they mentioned replacement reserves and sure cost of reserves was $12.00 - so unless I'm mistaken the cost of finding oil. Industry wide think it is meant to be closer to $5 but this includes harsh environments needing full platforms and potentially difficult regimes. What prices a barrel in Guyana with 3 yrs to monetisation via FPSO?

This is pretty piss poor in my opinion. One cannot have contingency for everything in such a project merely from a coat and availability perspective if nothing else but a rope failing, having been snagged two weeks ago. One would think a fairly low cost item (relatively speaking) to have contingency for given its criticality.
I know, I know they're not late but they're in no bloody danger.of being early and potentially likely to slip in to Q2 for FOIL announcement.
$120m and counting from a Sept arrival. $70m from November as Ghenghis alludes to but the bonuses/VCP will damn sure not be impacted.

The upside is drilling dependent and hard to gauge due to unknown factors like PoO. However, many quote $8 for a barrel in the ground and the CPR says 3bn boe - so even taking half of that gives ECO 225m barrels of oil.
Knock the $8 down to $4 and you get about $900m which is about £4.50.
That knocks 50% off the CPR (which doesn't inside alot of leads yet) and 50% off the much quoted price for oil in the ground.
However, don't get excited until they've drilled successfully or begun/confirmed talks with Exxon.
The market sèms to like the potential and that hopefully us enough to keep the SP moving in the right direction.
If Exxon are due to appraise Hammerhead in Q2 (likely april) one would think talks would take place between interested parties before this.

Maverick
Sentiment is important for sure and the less local.impediments the better.
The local politics question for Exxon related I think to the President of Guyana losing office and concerns around the licence agreement if there is a change of government. As it stands Exxon can reclaim costs for all phases of CapEx from early phase revenues which delays funds flowing to Guyanese government.
However, they will not want to kill the goose that lays the golden egg and Exxon will keep wanting to reap the cashflow so whichever government is in power a suitable solution will likely be found.
Some catching up indeed with TSX, here is hoping the fine start to the year continues.

Just in addition to my previous - it seems clear some discussions have happened around the Hammerhead field not sure these extend to unitisation yet. However, Gil has stated Exxon used the seismic to some extent in drilling Hammerhead and it is on this he says there is no need to drill to see they are connected.
If and when confirmation comes it would be transformational. This.already is having been in for a year.

Maverick
Think this is likely separate as French Guyana is different from where we are drilling is it not? Also, Total is.not the operator so difficult to see how the French court would have jurisdiction. Also, they are not known for acting as a brake on French industry.
Based on Gil's interview/quotes to Kaituernews about doing ilunitisation based on Geo as everyone knows what is there I dare say the recent road show has been pretty bullish too. Perhaps even with off the record reference a to state of discussions to date with Exxon - I'm fairly sure there well have been some.
2 weeks until Tullow present and 4 weeks until Exxon's next big one with news on the 2 current drills in meantime (one of which it seems is testing).

For the 88p a share valuation Hannam has for Hammerhead from memory it is based on 7.5% of a 500m barrel field. The presentations I've seen from Stabroek partners indicate its a bit bigger. The golden question being if it extends how.much is.on our patch as a continuous field....
Gil seems very confident the seismic is clear saying "why waste $40m drilling to find out what we already know, let's just start unitisation based on geo." May be paraphrasing slightly but that from memory was his quote to Jaiteur news online I think.

Exxon presentation is tomorrow in US - dare say materials have been seen by some/many and may contain more Hammerhead content than Hess as they are senior partner/operator.
Could be something completely different of course also...

Snail
An advert for Porsche Centre Aberdeen just came up.on my Facebook it is clearly a raging buy signal as the AM moves the SP will obviously go like a scalded Macan GTS.