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So maybe 25th for news a day or two isn't too big a deal! Any thoughts on sP in a success case...

Surprised Gil hasn't been on the airwaves to herald the start of drilling. However, on the basis of 25 days to results and a spud date of Thursday then come 23rd (ish) of July we could be in for some news.
What that will.mean for SP who knows.
To use Rockhopper as an example on 5th May 2010 it was 38p on 10th May it was 210p and 4th June it was 355p.
Sea lion is smaller than our share of Orinduik and our shares in issue are I think were two thirds of ours and the resources were 300m best case Net.
Obviously oil price was different but so was the expense of extraction and many companies make more.per barrel now than during the peak.
So what will the SP go to - would love to know some other peoples metrics. I think in terms of $5-8 per barrel confirmed by drill and $1-2 for the contingent yet to be drilled.
Anyone else any thoughts?
Have a good weekend all.

It is becoming difficult to predict how the market may treat this in the run up.

Logic dictates, Jethro is c.35m barrels net to ECO (results 24th July ish).They are meant to srill to Cretaceous also, Gil says this can open a complex much bigger than Jethro and original reason for selecting it I think. So maybe 50m barrels bet to ECO. Then Joe 25m barrels possibly followed by Rappu 130m barrels.
So 240m barrels at say $5 plus $2 for those not drilled. That gets you to to $1.92bn which incidentally is 240m barrels at the $8 quoted by Gil.

To take stock, Gil thinks drilling will increase resource base. Tullow and Gil often refer to when were successful not if. We are funded for 8 drills.

So let's just say we get Jethro and the complex so circa 550m barrels or 80m to ECO with $520m to.play for. Using $8 a barrel for discovered and $1.50 for the rest takes ECO to $1.475bn MCAP or fully diluted about $7.50 a share with 7 drills still to go and apparently keen interest across the industry.

As I've said before, Anadarko reserves seem to be valued at more like $15 and am sure HESS quoted $12 plus for replacement reserves.

All of course if the oil is there.....but when the value gap starts to close who knows and still 88p in Canada.

Two wells initially on there exploration budget but it was made clear at cap markets day they will.open a new line item and do further drilling if they find oil.
This is borne out by investor relations confirming the ship is contracted for 2 drills but they have kept their options open should it be needed to drill further. I.e. it has optionality attached.
3 successful drills including the cretaceous zkne on the planned drills would be amazing.

Late August for both drills, Jethro in 30-35 days including cretaceous.

He said 35 days I think but that is including foray into the cretaceous. He mentioned the complex again but didn't go further. There is clearly massive potential if they hit the complex (bigger than Jetheo according to Gil) or Rappu (535m barrels) as part of this campaign. Even without another drill that puts them on target for 900m-1bn barrels of oil based on CPR. Net 150m to ECO.
For me, I reckon this is is the minimum Tullow need to do if.looking to maximise farm down opportunity.

Think Gil is now getting nervous, not for any concerning reason just because it is the possible fruition for years of hard work that may make him a very wealthy man indeed.
It's funny he tries to be cautious then slips into when we discover and uses definitive terms. Tullow EVP for exploration does the same.
So up to 250m in JL and up to 150m in Joe. Plus a (much bigger in Gils words) complex in JL and 535m barrels in Rappu.
While funded for 6 further drills.
I can see them going for one more drill in addition to this if all goes well.
That could take this phase beyond 1.5bn barrels or 225m net to ECO....

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Genghis
Actually I read it as, the Chairman looked at the VCP coming from the remuneration committee who were being given options too and said this stinks. The options were taken away from the committee but the VCP stands.

If it were but a storm in a teacup I wonder why HUR said they had started a recruitment process for strong new i-NEDs almost 2 years ago and yet no appointments.....

Not to piss on your.parade but there remains serious governance issues and RT is a serious block to progress in some regards as he likes.playing with "his trainset"

I'm with WW and BD on this. Operationally they have been clear they will not stress the well so if it is performing beyond expectation great. The only possible reason is to allow time to manage any flow complications and/or manage expectations. Just because this is say 17k bopd c.20 days including testing equating to 350k barrels if there is no tanker until late July those of a weaker constitution may shit themselves and ahipwatchers read too much into it.

Maverick
Tullow are choosing to use their E&P budget almost solely for Orinduik in 2019. The budget is constrained by need to reduce debt, hence many might think farm down a portion and take a carry. However, the CMD Q&A stated that Tlow have not identified the full value across the licence and to Frm down prior to doing so makes little sense.
They have (as you know) seismic over Hammerhead to compare the geology of this versus the Joe and Jethro prospects to guide their approach. They were also doing AVO analysis to confirm presence of liquids in the traps.
Ian Cloke clearly stated when successful and although Angus McCoss later stated remember these are Wildcats they indicated (in Nov) work was ongoing to derisk the prospects.
Nothing guaranteed in life but strongly feel Tullow have selected these because.they believe they are as close to nailed on as.possible. allowing them to farm down post initial drill phase.
This is when I think Eco will sell its share also if there is success at the well head allowing a major to come in and take control.of the field and Tullow to get a carry and wait for the cash to flow.

And if they hit oil, £4 is probably the least I'd hope for. Recognising a dry hole means alot less.

The share price will almost certainly drop.in the event of first two wells being dry. I'd envisage there would likely be an opportunistic swoop if thisnhappend as a MCAP of £60-100m in an environment of uncertainty might be ripe for picking off.
If Hammerhead is a monster and 5-10% is on our field, then this and dollars in the bank aren't far off current market cap. Occidental paid more than $15 a barrel (by my reckoning) for Anadarko.
So even 75m barrels on the licence at those values is £4 plus per share.

Does anyone have an update on location of the Stena Forth relative to Orinduik?

Shpunken
If Hammerhead results were crap they'd not still have 2 drill ships over it. They have 5.5bn barrels already and have no need to paper over cracks so would have already made a statement I think if it was rubbish. Some institutions will have been in the placing for a quick buck and I dare say got near 10% of the offer in fees so even selling now books a small profit as we near quarter end/half year.
They may have hoped for the drill to be reporting before end June as guided but we are looking at mid July.
Volumes here aren't massive so it.only takes a few sellers to bring the price down and then others get nervous also.
The game is about the drills and these are what I am in for, they'll hit oil or they wont. If they do, for those in at the time it should be very rewarding on anything even close to the metrics Gil and others have mentioned.

So the complex mentioned from Jethro could be one of two areas with mapped possibilities linked on the map.
KG-MJ3 and more remotely KCA and KB - this complex is 633m, 230m, 63m and 349m barrels in the CPR.
The other potential one is Kumaka/DJ/Iatuk which are 667m, 150m and 627m respectively.
I think they may also have been mentioned at Tullow CMD in November.
They are more nervous on Cretaceous without the read across but it is the cretaceous where Exxon have had the majority of their success.
Not sure what kind of structures the Exxon fields are for Staebroek versus the mainlybstratigraphic traps in Orinduik.
The first interview I heard from Gil he talked extensively about the presence of these stratigraphic traps and good sands on the licence and was very positive

The oil price and macro environment undoubtedly impact the SP but with no debt the impact is not the same as for the SP of PMO/TLW in my view. The potential to acquire 600m barrels plus of reserves which can be monetized quickly and up to 40% of which could be appraised by the year end is fairly compelling and has an intrinsic value for majors and Private Equity.

I keep going back to Anadarko - $33bn from Chevron for 150k bond production and 1.5bn of reserves. ECO licence could have half that production (see size of next 2 FPSO on Stabroek after first delivers) inside 4 years (Tullow mentioned 3 years from drill to.production) and half of the reserves.
I'm not saying we are worth half of Anadarko by any means that would be $80 a share but it goes some way to show what the value gap is in a success case. With the work still to do obviously discounts need to be applied. However, bear in mind Anadarko is shale (I think) so constant drilling and capex required to maintain production so the value of current production is more limited in a model.
Reckon the bid implies $10 a barrel on their reserves booked.
Roll.on mid July for details of the drill results (based on the 20 days for 1st drill).

Maverick
Think they have announced it - Jethro and Joe from a tertiary perspective which is the zone Hammerhead is in. Not sure Exxon will be sharing much detail to be honest.
I'd say if drilling to Cretaceous on the Jethro drill the complex Gil referred to is probably Kumaka which is 600m barrels from memory. They may also testbRappu on Joe. That makes 1,390m barrels from 2 wells plus sidetracks - I think there is time and budget for another 2 bites at the cherry If they are happy with the data.
They will get cretaceous data from their drill on Kanuku also which will guide them on their knowledge of the plays and where to drill.
My guess is the rig is c.90 days with a 90 day option taking it through to year end.

Biffa
If I recall, last year RT reckoned they would have sufficient info to be most of the way satisfied in first 3 months of EPS. Think the phone may start ringing around then at Morgan Stanley.
I do get the impression the good doc fancies taking one half to production with Spirit though.

Just rewatched the video referenced on ADVFN - Gil has mentioned the complex below Jethro is much bigger than Jethro which itself is 200m barrels. That added to Rappu under Joe is potentially an enormous find from the first 'two's drills.