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Maverick
There are certainly all sorts of potential outcomes and it is a very closely watched drill but predicting with any certainty is a very tough thing to do.
I dare say more knowledge may be needed on Cretaceous which represents 75% of the CPR potential resources from memory. I'd still be surprised if this isn't looked at via more than the peek intended as part of Jethro - I.e. Rappu as part of Joe or an additional drill of Aurituk/MJ-3 or the like.
If they get to proving 100m plus net to ECO then numbers can get pretty lumpy.
Here is.hoping it starts well with Jethro results.

I'd say £6 off the back of Jethro is a stretch. It all depends on what they find and what it means for the remainder of the field.
Gil quotes $8 a barrel for oil in the ground and based on ECO assumptions for Jethro that is about £1.25 a share. For the rest of the field then the market may value it anywhere between zero and $2-3 a barrel in time. Probably 50c to a $1 more likely just now. That is probably a further £1.00 plus a share.
So maybe £2.00/£2.50 plus on reasonably conservative estimate but the market is a cruel mistress and depending on macro may not get near the above.

I dont think TSX comes into it. The RNS is released pre-opening (usually) and 7am here is pre TSX open. The act is issuing an RNS moves the price before the market opens so the spivs can position it as MMs - so TSX will.likely position in the way AIM has.
Dont think we need to worry today so looking like next week as by this point I'd take the weekend to complete analysis if there.is anything else in there to look at.
One would hope a duster would be known by now as theyd have done some analysis but less than for an oil find and drilled on down to cretaceous fairly quickly I think.
Doesn't rule it out though.

Paul McDade said they're about to get to interesting bit 2 weeks ago today.
If the news had been crap, I'd have taken the Labour spin approach and kitchen sinked it with the Donald's pronouncements on trade where the SP will take a pounding anyway.
Still, just need to see what comes and when.

This occurred to me the other day but not sure if I posted.

Given Tullows recent issues in Ghana and the delay in delivery of Stena Forth to field it is fair to assume she was involved in the failed drilling of the complex well. This may have required some further fixes to Stena Forth, hence the delay in spudding once on site and may explain why they're taking time to ensure the drill is done correctly.

Mid-August could feasibly be any time to 18th/19th but youd expect them to be in the zone and analysing now to afford time to drill cretaceous also even if analysis in the reservoir takes a few days.

Tullow board strike me as a little belligerent so not sure they would release info until they're good and ready, even if Gil is champing at the bit.

With regards to timing, Tullow were very clear for news - mid August. I dare say if the drill ship has a 2-3 week on 2-3 week off rota then as the reservoir is approached the crew may be changed and Tullow/Stena can then control communications via internet etc and keep drilling to a very tight/closed group.
FWIW- timing wise Tullow IR said they only intend to touch the cretaceous on this and don't have a target as such. So the time needed to do this is probably only a couple of days. Hence, it seems their on plan to be doing whatever it is they're doing in the target zone currently.
Keen to hear progress but expect Monday or beyond for news.

The collection of the data means it takes longer going to the drill depth, Diversified. So the production casing has to be cemented in place as you go down. The cores have to be taken from drilling, gas and chromatography analysed as encountered and probably resonance imaging to confirm what they think the seismic is telling them.
Once in the hole they have to see how far it extends and get a sense of volume too.
All takes time.

Markets are getting into correction territory again, ot wont take much of a slip for this to become a bear market. The guy is unhinged, the irony being I get the Buy American message, like the UK their trade deficit is.horrendous and unsustainable but he isn't the one to deliver cogent reforms.

Still a wildcat but the factors are positive
- they've likely been in reservoir for a while
- dry hole would show up.pretty quick
- they're using production casing
- QP wouldnt be doing a deal without huge confidence
- TOTAL didn't even wait to get all the info before taking their.option
- Hammerhead needs news seismic most likely to confirm how prospects on the two blocks overlap
- were ultimately funded for 8 goes at this

Macro is crap and there has been general tetchiness.

While the medium term outcome is not a binary one many will want to take some gains off table prior to drill results which short term will be binary. Some of the holders may have been waiting for a bounce pre results and de risking as it hasn't arrived.
Funny old thing the market.
Does annoy me somewhat the delay in ship arriving and subsequent delay in spud and Tullow (along with most oilers) don't seem it worthy of comment.
I can see the. Taking their sweet time announcing results as well, despite their own SP being at multi year lows almost.

Phoebus
Keen as I am for the valuation to be underpinned, absence of trap/seal at the prospects they deem to be highest CoS will undoubtedly spook the.market.
We are currently 'valued' at the prospects plus Hammerhead so remove a prospect and there is a value change for it and read across to others.
Chance of there being no trap/seal across the 8 drills were funded for is hopefully infinitessimally small but it is there.
Ideally, Jethro hits oil and then we will all have much less to be concerned about.

So Day 29 of the Jethro Lobe drill.
Monday marks Day 32 and next Friday 35.
With time needed to drill into Cretaceous one would think Jethro ops should be complete by next Friday. Working back, they are likely in the zone now but imagine there is much to do to analyse the properties of the reservoir and take readings necessary to re-interpret or confirm the seismic.

RazorsEdge
It's the potential for the trade war to stall the two largest economies which could.lead to recessions and reduced demand that means such rhetoric impacts the oil price. Frankly gives him a free swing at Iran by extension.

https://youtu.be/h0poohs9uHM

Worth listening to for context of what may be done this summer....

They were a bit mixed in their guidance but cant see it being before the weekend (famous last words). I'd imagine sometime next week.
I understand from Tullow IR the properties of the Tertiary are being studied closely for how the seismic has been interpreted across the licence - presumably volumes, rock formation etc to read across to current resource estimates. Not sure what thay means if hole is dry.

Given were at 28 days today I'd expect we may have heard if it was a dry hole by now, particularly as they have still to drill into the Cretaceous.

Remarkable stat from the call, HESS has a 15yr pipeline of drilling that will give a 50% IRR at $60 oil. Those are remarkable economics.
There was talk of a 6th and 7th FPSO solution which could take Stabroek into the realms of over a million barrels a day production as these are likely to average 150-200k bopd of production.
They are currently at 6bn barrels plus Hammerhear and have as many years appraisal still to carry out as they have done so far and are adding 4th drill ship to the theatre.
I only listened to the first 15 mins then most of the Q&A but boy they do a good job at their results and are so.open to the analysts questions.

Wonder if I can persuade my wife to holiday in Guyana next week and then hit the shore for some chit chat in the bars!

Hard to read into it, the language will be very carefully vetted so as not to be deemed market sensitive. Tullow will be in charge of news flow just now so maybe end next week or beyond for news.

Mani01
There.are factors at play other than cash considerations for Total. Their strategic partnership with Qatar which is perhaps like Tullows with Africa oil - first option on assets type deal.
The bigger consideration being setting a structure where the potential development costs of major appraisal activity and FID/FFD planning can work quickly across multiple prospects if the drilling justifies it.
Exxon are operating 3 ships and if Jethro has.opened a major zone then the activity subsequently could be enormous planning for 3,4 or 5 production hubs down the line as Exxon are.
That isn't a presumption this will happen but it is certainly possible and the quicker they monetise the quicker its accretive - 2-3yrs at $60 oil based on HESS indications from memory.

Pretty bullish......