Member Info for InJamesweTrust

Be fun in the choppers at the more extreme end of those conditions Cebo. Dont have a meal before hand or probably for a while afterward!

So my understanding is spud represents breaking ground not movement through water but obviously happy to be corrected. With 4 or 5 days to prep casing etc then real drilling would commence last Thur/Fri and at 160m per day take around 7-8 days. Hence, a result may be feasible towards the middle/end of next week.
I'll be really interested now to see the figures for Jethro and how these impact understanding for the rest of the licence.
They (Pareto) are working off 220m and 148m for Jethro and Joe still so far as I can tell. The CoS for remaining Tertiary has not been increased much in their analysis post Jethro. I'd have expected perhaps the seal etc to be higher probability but perhaps with Jethro and Joe being analogous to Hammerhead there was a more direct read across.
Anyway, depending on the result at Joe and how this compares to CPR volume and guidance on Jethro channel it could make the next Pareto target quite different from the current 200p.
For those doubting the potential of Namibia it is there to be seen although forms no part of their value calculation. At $4 per barrel they have £20 a share as the potential.
For Africa Oil this is a big prize for them and it is what gives me some comfort (as much as.one can take on AIM) that we wont get tucked up like the Faroe or Delek shareholders. Although even at Faroe prices paid by DNO there is a lot value here not yet reflected.

The Pareto report uses $4.90 per barrel and assumes significant risk factors. Taking risk factors aside, ignoring the less than $5 a barrel and potential uplift in field size that makes their Cretaceous price £10.44 and Tertiary £3.00 plus if increasing size.of.Joe extension in light of the channel for Jethro. The numbers are bewildering.
Presuming toward end next week or beyond for Joe news.

The spread is a funny thing, so are MM's trying to fill an order at the lower price but the Ask just isnt shifting....

Berenberg note interesting. I'd be interested to see their calculations and how many barrels they are presuming relative to those estimated in the CPR. £2.00 target price on Joe and 5x upside for successful drillingbfrom here doesn't sound too bad though.
How much might that change when we get guidance on how the field looks versus expectations?

They could announce Joe results mid next week and still continue as Stena Forth remained on site post Jethro for some time. Not sure why but perhaps to analyse the Cretaceous to help with any intentions.
To be clear, they've said they wont and I have zero info to the contrary but given their issues elsewhere a bit of shine for little downside must be tempting.
Wonder how long Carapa will take...

At 600ft a day then youd surmise we could easily be at depth. Poke around for a week then still 3 weeks until end Sept. Wonder what they could do with that time. Another 5,000 feet and still leave 13 days.....

Disappointingly dry RNS again. No mention of problems same as no mention a year later of delaybat DDO. Transparency wise it isnt exactly stellar and wheeling out RT to say anything when he has absolutely zero pep/charisma just exacerbates the crap messaging.
Good production figures on the face of it and if DST is successful great.

Tullow is inherently conservative but Total/QP will be pushing. Gil knows silence while not deadly will see selling so.is.not likely to stand idly by.
While accepting there is analysis work to be done, someone mentioned Tullow had not.spent their entire drilling budget for this year.
There should be sufficient detail on Jethro channel to drill and one would expect appraisal work on Jethro Lobe to be straightforward from a planning perspective.
There has surely been work since before Total exercised the option to game the strategy and prepare prospects post Jetheo success. I'd suggest these need only fine tuning and benchmarking to the drill results.
Stena Forth is on contract in Ghana and available again in Dec (it is just a 2 month contract).

Total super computer Pangea III built for them by IBM which has.power of 130,000 laptops.
I'd let them have a go.

In terms of the information, yes I can see it takes time to process but the seismic has been processed into a range of potential interpretations. The CPR has calculated these to mathematical tolerance it is comfortable with, the drilling outcomes may change some of these tolerances but do not require reprocessing the seismic which in my understanding is the time intensive aspect.
I dont think all will be known in October but we should have enough info to provide a more detailed update than that indicated on Tullow call to date.

Here and now
I know this is the stated aim and am resigned to them not doing so. Disappointed but it is a very small wrinkle in an otherwise amazing series of events and SP performance.

I do think in early Oct we need info on the drill outcomes and plan for 2020 or at least outline thinking and timing of update. Market will be keen to get a better sense of the achievement and it shouldn't just be the preserve of analysts.

It sounds like a few folk on here have some chunky holdings.

Doing calculations around porosity and sq.km quoted versus the P50 size indicate it (Jethro ) could be much bigger.
Apparently, you can drill 600ft a day plus which would be more than sufficient to have using the zone by middle to end of next week. It is also more than sufficient to have a nudge at Rappue before end Sept.

Would be surprised if Tullow do.not remain operator for a little while yet. There is appraisal work at Jethro, Joe (I hope) and possibly drilling at Jethro channel while data from the dip into Cretaceous is evaluated for where to drill in this sector.
This is a mix of exploration and appraisal line items for Tullow and think in Guyana they have 2 or 3 exploration drills pencilled in for '20 which I dare say will be front ended.
Problems in Ghana make it all the more important to get the right result in good time in Guyana.

Currently less than Guyana but the CoS in Guyana would have been less if CPR published before Exxon success.
Eco SP doesn't place much value on Namibia assets and may in time become a pure Namibia play upon exiting Guyana.
In the meantime there should still be good returns available from further Guyana exploration giving one essentially a free go at taking a punt on Namibia.

The hiring of the advisors is telling. With Lundin they can use the balance sheet to fund their share of costs if such a situation was to arise. However, proving up and selling Orinduik to then prove up and sell down Namibia makes a great deal of sense.
Given the larger holdings in Namibia, they have much more chance of creating value while retaining a meaningful stake in a move to production in that province. Drilling in Namibia is though a great deal.more expensive than Guyana as I understand.

The Guyanese government are probably nervous about perception of prices and how that will play. I dare say they want to keep a lid on such things until Liza is producing and they can point to tangible future revenue streams.
In time the PSA will be tweaked to increase the royalty and the sunk cost of phases will be limited to being recouped on production from that phase. As I understand it, Exxon and partners can recoup production from all 5 FPSO capex costs from Liza before Guyana sees any funds and that will play poorly also.
Nobody wins if Guyana loses, drilling permits can get bogged down in paperwork or officialdom etc and there is just too much money at stake to screw them over.
Everyone will still do very well out of things even once Guyana has a better story to sell.
Maybe theyll start a National Oil co and hire the old Exxon chief who used to work for Trump!

Marvin
Not just Gil, I'm not keen to see Namibia wrapped into a Guyana transaction should a bid transpire. Special dividend is the cleanest, they sell Eco Atlantic Guyana to the interested party/highest bidder.
Hopefully the latter as some competitive tension in the process would do the end result no harm.
Also, in terms of information asymmetry it is not in ECO or Tullows interest for a one horse race that carves it up between Total & QP. I'd be very surprised if Tullow dont have a data room open soon after Joe results not that us plebs will ever see it.
Good luck all, the ride continues!

Starvin
Not speaking for Maverick, thatd make me an Iceman like a-hole.
Anyway, a division could take many forms and perhaps even be split depending on requirements. Ultimately, the likeliest form would be paying cash to shareholders a sum related to the value of any sale of Guyana asset. Depending on tax position this may create tax issues for some.
An alternative is a share buy back whereby a proportion of cash is used to make a tender offer for the shares.
Offering one or other may be possible but the cash component/price paid for shares would need to flex along a value range to prevent remaining shareholders getting a double benefit.
Put it this way, it would be a pleasant problem to have.

The figures I mentioned last week on DNO bid for Faroe were $6+ for 2P and $3+ for 2C. These make £4 look pretty low, indeed it.is equivalent to less than half this based on a 4bn barrel field.

There may not be drilling, still wonder how long we have the rig for given late delivery to us and if that opens up some Cretaceous testing.
If kicking off in Q1 theyd need to be signing up a deal with Stena/Transocean etc soon.
There will in the meantime be some indication on the rerate of the CPR, potential volumes in Jethro/Joe, difference it makes to CoS and how the work has derisked and mirrored the seismic.
The beneficial read across of success at Joe and Jethro should be Jethro channel is significantly derisked and more value on KB plus Hammerhead.
Given the higher porosity and Finncap assumption on more oil pick your reserves calculation and price per barrel for the potential value....
Clear path should be forthcoming from Tullow but think Gil would find it hard right now to be quieter for 4 months.

RazorsEdge
For me, Ian Cloke comes across much better than anyone else at Tullow. McDade and McCoss do seem pretty miserable but have had a fight with markets for years to reposition which will jade anyone.
Clokes body language and actual language when talking about Guyana persuaded me to invest further here after my initial purchases.
The chat from HESS who say it is a game changer.for them is great too.