Member Info for InJamesweTrust

Noix
The good thing is they are not, they're challenging his statements to get a better sense that as suspected he is talking crap. Agree on RNS, most likely next week but will be when they are happy to update and have something substantive.

Wallact
In my experience, theyd be flown in pretty quick if required. Dare say infrastructure in GoM or Brazil would have the necessary kit readily available.
The time taken will be the time taken but there is a reason for building in auxiliary capability otherwise it is a pointless vessel expense.

Daveeed
Thanks, that's the point I'm trying to get at.

Wow - HUR get Dr T to use superlatives and be enthusiastic, break out the Twitter password and dust it off and all they get is 6%. Wow!
Think when it sinks in it will rise steadily.
Timing of tie back and proving the field now important as can prove up 1.2bn barrels as real resource.
Just out of interest, is Halifax out of range for a tie back? I know it is stretching things somewhat....

Lam1
Thanks. So once the drill string is static, as it would be if the motor is broken it is still not feasible to switch to auxiliary? I presume the auxiliary is on the top side also and the connection to provide power should theoretically be switchable?

Bright spot
As a non.oilie Inhave to ask, would the auxiliary top drive not compensate for the loss of the primary until such could be repaired. Reviewing the Stena Forth spec they seem to have pretty similar capabilities for what is only shall drill given the vessel is designed to operate at 10,000ft water depth and drill to 35,000 feet.
This drill is less than a tenth of those tolerances.

Not hanging around in Canada so far.

Lefititkate
Agreed, think they (MM's) will be trying to pull down as many peoples trousers as they can. Would not rule out a tree shake going into the weekend either. Although 2 in such quick succession would look fishy.
Going back to suggested timings for drill, today is day 18. 4/5 days to case then 160m a day for 11 days (believe 250m a day is possible) would indicate they are in the zone and have been for 2-3 days.
Dont expect an RNS until next week but while we wait the market makers will have fun!

Looked at the Gil.interview from 8th April with Andrew Scott and just noticed the picture in the background is one of elephants. I'm sure in a previous interview this animal may have been mentioned, maybe just me but found Gils subliminal messaging funny.
He stated 20-25 days for Joe but then said spud mid July results end July so I'd tend towards the 20 days.

You'd hope the longer it goes the better the news. Dare say the market has similar sentiment.
Here is hoping for a good result and strong all round update around what the results indicate and where the plans will take us.

He spoke to someone at 70p who asked what do.I do now, Malcy buy some more.
He spoke to him again at 150p, the investor asked what do I do now, Malcy said buy some more.
His TP of 220p will he thinks be beated on a successful Joe outcome and he believes it is just a matter of time until ECO is bought out.
So yes, fairly bullish all in all.

Reboundless
Think there is attraction to majors and 2nd tier.players in the Orinduik block. For majors, they can purchase some of Tullows interest and Ecos to take over operating control. For all majors given the barrel of oil potential versus the actual cash cost (much of the Tullow interest can be in form of a carry much of which is deferred into later years).
This applies for Exxon, Chevron, Occidental, Total and particularly BP and Shell who are not involved in the area.
There are also the 2nd tier players who would love Ecos interest in Orinduik with the potential for entry at an ultimately very competitive cost per barrel.
Hence, there should be significant competition and it is easy to surmise it is in Tullows interest to market a sale jointly with Eco due to their need to solve balance sheet constraints with upfront payment while retaining involvement via some sort of carry. The 2nd tier would struggle I think to fund that.

Hess are capital constrained but CNOOc not so much.

Hi O&W
I note Pareto use $4.90 in their analysis and then risk this based on CoS for Tertiary and at a standard 10% for Cretaceous. This is pretty sever but I think shows the need for one or two successes in the Cretaceous zone being vital to getting full value for company (if there is oil in the cretaceous obviously)!
So using the $5 of Pareto - calling Jethro channel 300m barrels and a CoS of 60% with Jethro Lobe and Joe being 700m boe combined that is 880m barrels blended. Which is $660m to ECO or about £2.75-£300 a share.
This discounts Hammerhead, the polygon on our side looks to be c.15% of that field and indications are it is huge. That is probably another 40p a share to ECO.
That gets you to £3 (sticking with round figures) in a Joe success case while not attributing any value to Cretaceous or Namibia.
Drilling the Cretaceous in early course is vital and I hope with Joe they have a poke around in the formation rock if not the reservoir to confirm seismic understanding and get comfortable with interpreting where to drill Rappu.
They've had the seismic for 18 months so Rappu Nd Jethro channel should be drill ready for a Q1 rig contract.

What will the majors pay - who knows. The potential is huge and it depends who has the balance sheet and guts to step in and if they do so as operator or just minority interest.

Noix
Could be some freebie. Have similar thoughts to yourself on Jethro but if the porosity and recover ability are so strong across the licence there would be a huge uplift in CPR volumes.
If we hit at Joe and have Jethro - both then guided as materially bigger with an update on what Jethro channel constitutes size wise and if CoS is high given Jethro success and read across.
That could make over a billion barrels of discovered and highly likely from first 2 drills.
Clear guidance on early drilling of Jethro channel, Rappu and appraisal of Jethro would also be very welcome.

Dare say the BoD are cursing the ship watchers and amateur sleuths right around now.
The RNS is bland (as ever) but good that oil is flowing to surface. Note (from memory was just a quick read before school run) it didn't state mechanically or by it's own accord not sure if that makes a difference or what the norm would be.
On a successful DST it does put them in a better position particularly around tie back and increased production. A good first quarter update on EPS allied to the DST results could make a strong difference to the SP.

It's really maddening. On wednesday the bid was being pulled down but just resulted in the spread widening. For the Canadian and UK markets to have such a co-ordinated flash crash and recovery must be worthy of some investigation surely.
Can see Joe results being available next week, middle to end.
Hopefully no other nice surprises in store.
One wonders if the politician had an incentive to make the statement he did so close to the Joe results allowing MMs to top up. Outside of simple electioneering.....I wonder.

Have only seen this happen once before when invested in Sound Energy. It had been up to 100p and was bumping around 85p and intraday dropped to 60p and back up again to the high 70's.
At the time the results of a drill were (over)due (TE-7) and once back in the 80s I took it as my cue to sell (thank goodness). It was quite clearly marked down to trigger stop losses and 3yrs on they're still at it. Shocking.

Does seem a heavy over reaction.
It is easy to talk up intentions in opposition, actions when faced with the might of Total and QP something else. The Tullow contract was also signed as a Frontier contract before any Exxon discovery.
The government will likely be keen to change terms so not all CapEc can be set against the first revenue stream. Royalties likely to rise also.
For any sale there is also likely to be CGT payable on any sale by Total to QP and Eco to anyone. However, the prospect of a major accelerating production under new terms that see revenue accrue to the populace more quickly.
I see Jethro and its channel as being significantly larger than CPR and Joe being handily larger also.
These outcomes would more than compensate for what any oppo.politician may have planned.

Big drop in Canada so far, Guyana oppo leader saying contracts post Exxon should be reviewed. Likely an over reaction as even a reversion to normalised contract terms gives ECO an asset that is potentially worth significant multiples of the current market cap.