Member Info for InJamesweTrust

MCB55
No chance of HUR getting a loan to repay the bonds at a rate which they would deem to be attractive. Bear in mind they have to be taken out at market value or par whichever is greater.

Was going to write a post this morning similar to the TMS one, having listened again to Gils interview to confirm timing mentioned on CPR. Probably around end Oct/time of Tullow update in mid -November.
However, the prospect of Jethro and Joe details, Jimmy (and I think Rappu), Jethro channel and Kummaka and Malone to be drilled equate to c.2.5bn barrels.
The CPR will be updated and CoS will rise on the remaining 1bn plus Tertiary barrels as it will on Cretaceous if we can drill this successfully.
Cant wait to see the next TP after these details are released.

SIPP
Eco was 45.3p now.....

Biffa
I fear you are right (like a stopped clock ;-)) the selling and price action is more fundamental than MMs trying to build stock for an event 6-12 months or longer hence. Few funds have such a horizon let alone MM's.
Alas, that is the problem few funds have that kind of horizon and given the continued depressed price there are many reducing exposure to HUR.
Why? Perhaps the belief that EPS results will bring in a white knight TO offer is less concrete when one considers the timeline for monetizing these assets. It is a very long term play in an area that is receiving a great deal of negative press and build up of negative sentiment.
Longer term O&G stocks may become pariahs like tobacco stocks and this plays to fears for HUR longterm profitability.
If you sink £8bn into a 200k bopd fixed platform solution from 2022-2026 when production starts when does the benefit hit the bottom line after the outlay......using 10% IRR I reckon into the late 2030's before there is any bottom line benefit.
That is based on current MCAP so any uplift is necessarily impacted by such factors. I'm presuming a steady $45 a barrel free cash when in production.
I cant see where else the market nerves are coming from.

This is starting to feel like Sound Energy used to, constantly being ground down on the SP. I do wonder what is behind such concerns and am starting to wonder if it is not partly related to the viability time wise of extracting the oil while the investment environment remains benign.
I worry 2-3 years hence how easy it may be to raise funds and note BP saying recently they will invest only in advantaged projects some if it's own reserves will remain in the ground due to changing outlook. One can draw ones own conclusion as to what that means.

Additionally, if they are that close on the size/shape.of target from seismic they cant be that far off the resource numbers either.

What I like about the presentation is the sheer number of targets and the size of the polygons, when you compare these to the 2-D representation of next door it is at least as big if not bigger. Many of these are multi-layered to the potential is ridiculous.
Also, the net pay to gross is a good figure as it seems Joe and Jethro are.almost continual oil columns. Clearly the two drills have yielded well over 300m barrels plus Hammerhead and reduction in risk across the numerous other targets.
Malone looks like a multi-layered target also as it is a Jethro channel like shape on Total map but then an amorphous mass of shapes on Eco presentation.
Very good stuff and keen for this all to be better explained to the market (I'm sure it is being so) and quickly explored.

Boris isnt in thrall to Saudi but it is an important source of both international trade income and a significant customer of a key UK company in BAE systems that supports UK defence. We are such a bunch of twats investigating things like Al-Yamanah deal and shooting ourselves in the foot - the SFO want a rocket up their arse if we are to compete globally. Chavez ruined Venezuela and alas Corbyn will do likewise to the UK where capital flight would ruin the city of London in no time. Thus creating a yawning trade deficit and smashing the currency much more severely than ANY Brexit scenario.
As for Guyana, I think the presence of US Navy vessels is welcome as will the presence of Exxon. Any government has to be able to demonstrate benefits and with a population the size of Guyanas it doesn't take much to achieve that in cash terms. Liza profit share (when it kicks in which is contentious) is equivalent to around $4 a day for everyone in the country.
Now with Exxon standing behind that Guyana can easily borrow on the international markets against that revenue stream. The problem is timing as Exxon can recover Pacora, Liza 2 and Ranger development costs from Liza 1 revenues. This is the key contractual area that will need to change.
As for little old Eco, hope the calculators are busy running the new numbers and the partners are working out which rig and when for the new year.
The plan looks fairly clear bar timing and should be great for all partners.

I'll finish by saying Eco have barrels onthe hottest post code in the world and minimum 75m barrels based on Jethro being bigger than envisaged and Joe being in the zone of expectation plus Hammerhead (so actually nearer 100m barrels).
Buchan is maybe 120m barrels that the operator was happy to relinquish rather than spend the necessary funds to make it operation in line with H&S. Next door for Eco they are spending several billions to get things moving.
Nuff said.

Proselenses
Eco have been able to raise before the drill bit turned. QP have farmed in to Totals share (through the back door) and Ecos key shareholder has significant funds and their CEO is a big believer in the block.
Eco can farm out its share to PE in full or for a carry there is a demonstrable market for the asset. It can also work in tandem with Tullow to give a major operator ship.of the licence which is a major bonus for Tullows marketing.
Tullow have a debt constraint which means they are not about to add $300m to anticipated CapEx and any production now would be long lead items only.
The next drills are likely Q1 for which they are funded and post this if successful the value of their 2P reserves will be significant indeed.
Verbier is at the lower end of the 25-119m barrel estimate of which JoG has a percentage. They can then drill 2x Verbier and Cortina (goodbye cash and a cash call if they do) then need to find cash to move the Buchan field forward.
Their not a basket case but to re-iterate, I know where I'd rather be invested.

I'd respectfully disagree on Verbier. Cortina needs to be appraised and drilled.
Buchan has not been developed and how will Jog fund drilling there and on Cortina.
I'll take a further look but would prefer to be here than JOG.

To ADVFN posters on JOG, their share of Verbier which their partners Equinor decided was kon commercial was 15-20% of the 100 odd million barrels Verbier was initially viewed as having.
They have since got new licences in Buchan which have not got a drill record (as far as I'm aware) and the resources are strictly potential/possible so P50/P90/P10.
The resources in Orinduik are.now somewhere between 2C and 2P due to drilling and the proven commerciality of the Stabrowk block.
I'd need to look more closely to be sure but it is apples and pairs to compare JOG to ECO value per barrel.

Maverick
For that I'd even let them have Namibia! Well 50% of Namibia and free carry in 5 drills!!!!!
Have a good weekend all.

Cebo
I'm talking more institutional boats, so super tankers to use an analogy rather than our own coracles.

CpR next week or week after on his timelines but end Oct a better bet as they always take time.

That this keeps falling is mysterious indeed. Literally cant understand the rationale unless the market is discounting value of oil 10yrs out very heavily and then normally discounting FB as their usual stance.
I do think HUR need to look at strategy and the timeline to maximise the monetization of the assets as FID on FFD for GWA next year/2021 and FFD for GLA in 2022 isnt floating anyones boat if the share price is any barometer.

Him buying £50k is a decent chunk, their G&A is low so he isn't paid as much as some other AIM CEOs by any stretch. Timing wise, yes I dare say it is to give the SP some respite.

Positive news on Carapa would be welcome but isnt essential. I think the drill plan has been heavily hinted by the two prospects listed in the Total report below.
hTTps://publications.total.com/investorDay2019/Strategy-and-Outlook-Presentation-2019_securise.pdf
Kumakka being 627m barrels and Malone being a completely new complex that is on the Tullow map but not in the CPR as far as I can see. Malone looks like a Tertiary with Cretaceous below it.
Along with these two I expect appraisal activity on Jethro and Joe which should prove the Jethro channel and Jimmy, possibly Rappu as well if confident about the geological interpretation by then. Plus Hammerhead.
All in that is alot of oil, I'd say in excess of 2bn barrels.
With the apparently new accumulation around Malone and any uplift from the improved porosity, the CPR revision should yield in excess of 5bn barrels.
So Eco may have 750m barrels net, of which it may prove up.more than 300m barrels by end H1.
Malone means with Jethro, Joe, Hammerhead and Kumakka they have covered all areas of the licence to demonstrate petroleum systems thus increasing the CoS in the remaining undrilled prospects.
The CoS is how the analysts arrive at their risked target price.
All the above needs continued good news/fortune a la Exxon but what a huge prize to play for. No wonder he is buying.

Him buying £50k is a decent chunk, their G&A is low so he isn't paid as much as some other AIM CEOs by any stretch. Timing wise, yes I dare say it is to give the SP some respite.

Positive news on Carapa would be welcome but isnt essential. I think the drill plan has been heavily hinted by the two prospects listed in the Total report below.
hTTps://publications.total.com/investorDay2019/Strategy-and-Outlook-Presentation-2019_securise.pdf
Kumakka being 627m barrels and Malone being a completely new complex that is on the Tullow map but not in the CPR as far as I can see. Malone looks like a Tertiary with Cretaceous below it.
Along with these two I expect appraisal activity on Jethro and Joe which should prove the Jethro channel and Jimmy, possibly Rappu as well if confident about the geological interpretation by then. Plus Hammerhead.
All in that is alot of oil, I'd say in excess of 2bn barrels.

If Alister Stobie said that the shareholder should have asked him that has been the case for 3 years since he joined and hasn't shelled out a penny. What a buffoon (tempering my language).

Update to.my earlier - Malone looks like a new accumulation in the South of the block rather than Amatuk. Singularly looks small but there are multiple large blobs there on the Tullow presentation most recently so potentially a fairly large target not on the maps in the CPR.

#How many barrels are there?