Member Info for InJamesweTrust

Many market participants have a short term view and will trade in and out, sometimes for profit sometimes not.
Just seen a video referenced on Twitter of Warren Buffet in 1987 being asked what his most important quality was in being a successful money manager- PATIENCE.
Also, doing your research and buying a company for less than it's worth and waiting for the value to out.
I'd say 175p is a good deal less than Eco is worth so I am willing to show PATIENCE and wait for the value to out

Let's be honest, if participated in the March placing at 80p and can now top slice your original investment and let the rest ride that is your Beta. Some will see the continued upside others will be more short term.

Looking at pg.42 of the CPR it indicates a max depth of.Joe as around 35m - top of the blue to bottom of yellow but probably more around 15-20m. The porosity commentary again indicates to me any disappoinment in size will be compensated by higher porosity.
Joe was meant to be shallower than Jethro from what I would deduce from the target barrels being lower despite the area covered being greater.
Think this is is the reason for muted reaction and the story is maybe being missed.

Malcysblog
New short term target of 300p and longer term target of 500p plus. Think that accords with many peoples views here.

Schlemiel
I'd agree, personally I feel quite relaxed now about where this should go. Time will see the value out and I'm not talking 3 yes like Hurricane or forever/never like Sound energy within 6 months here it should be materially re-rated.
Jimo

They do at a 12% discount and Pareto.use $4.90.

I dont think either metric recognises the competitive bidding situation Eco may find itself in with continuing good news flow. Hess has alluded to the cost of discovering new barrels being $12-14 in some cases.

Use $5 then apply the actual CoS (18% and above) to the rest of the licence and it will I dare say more than cancel out.
Or use $5 and still come out at £2.98 for what feels a very conservative (to me, dyor) fair value price on current info.

This is where Gil needs now to get the real message out on how successful this is relative to expectations. The 16m may sound disappointing after the 55m of Jethro but Joe is over a wider area. Gil made clear evidence to the porosity and there is the potential bonus of the pliocene not included in estimates.
The P10 on Joe is 256.7 and given how Jethro blew the doors off the graphs on 101 about probability distributions and potential resources look like we are still talking about alot of oil.
Really pleased to say they are now going to.properly estimate Hammerhead. The 3 plays likely give Eco more than 100m barrels which at $8 is a barrel and $1.25 exchange is £3.36. If you take another 600m barrels potential (only a very small uplift) and apply a 6% CoS as a risk factor so 50c a barrel that is another £1.26 a share.
Jimo - but that is around where I see fair value for Eco now around 400-450p with potential to go much beyond this with further drilling.
The key being confidence now in CoS, future drill targets and.how much have we actually found so far and.how much difference does it make to CPR estimates.
Repsol drill could make a big difference too.

Great news, verybdufferent wording between thenTullow and Eco RNS statements. Eco more positive 16m net oaynwith sandstone above and below being analysed for discovery potential
Colin Kinley (paraphrasing) these discoveries now greatly increase the chances of success on our future drills.

The docs would likely have boiler plate wording as a minimum around change of control or.material adverse change (MAC) clause. Depending on the transaction structure if one arises the Guyana government could argue on this basis.
The likelihood.of this is minimal as anyone coming in is likely to have the deep.pockets required to accelerate development.

Cebo
Fingers crossed for you and the rest of us on this one.
The confidence demonstrated by Colin Kinley, Keith Hill and Gil cannot be so misplaced and they have the teams to really analyse the seismic and understand the prize.
With AVO and the close analogy to Hammerhead/Jethro then the omens are certainly good.
Trendz (I think) I'd say slicing as you go is sensible.

Interesting to see itmopening today, next leg up or MM walk it down.

Gotti
3% of 1.5% is probably less than some of the folk on here have. It is 0.05%

Think being all in on anything is very risky and as confident as I am here I'm far from all in. That burns when the share price is up 150% in 6 weeks but is tempered by knowledge I'm not going to be totally screwed by a single outcome.
I've also take a small amount off the table since Jethro as a profit doesn't actually count while still on paper.
I remain significantly invested (for me) and very confident but important to remain prudent despite the hype.

Wellwell
It is just basic, the longer EPS goes the less the discount factor is applied and a greater degree of confidence can be applied to the revenue model. Equally to the Lincoln tie back and the company is producing enough cashflow it can actually buy back bondholders of it desires.
So it has multiple.options which grow with each offload.
I kind of agree, I think RT would like to be there on the big platform for first production if they get there so can see a GLA farm in being entirely possible.
For what Spirit would cost as EPS continues it must be tempting to many as an easy in.

I'm amazed this remains in the 40's.
The market must be very suspicious of FB or just irrational. So long as O&G sectorally doesn't tank with all the Ecomentalists raging against it then this should (if all continues as planned) continue to rise as EPS keeps producing and Lincoln gets closer to a tie back.
As someone mentioned yesterday, the AGM next year will be post 12 months production and if all is well it should be materially higher by then.

MrPartridge
The drill timetable generally includes time in the reservoir for core sampling, 3-D resonance imaging, and any number of other activities expected to take 5-7 days or so. Hence, for a 20 day drill they'd probably expect to be in the reservoir on Day 15 and know quickly if the core samples were wet with oil or dry.
If it is a dry hole, there is much less to do analysis wise (although samples and chromatography can still be important indicators of a petroleum system) but work would be completed quicker and bad news therefore released.
Like anything, it is.not an exact science though and we remain in the dark until actual news.

Diversified
Broadly agree, this is the interesting part of the messaging now for me. I note in a post Jethro interview Gil mentioned 2bn barrels in the tertiary. I dont know if this was a mistake or a slip of the tongue and what they think is there now given the sandstone results in Jethro.
So a similarly enthusiastic outcome from Joe if forthcoming, along with chat on the Jethro channel and the rest of the licence and the 4bn CPR number may seem conservative. This makes the licence even more interesting and I am eager to see the drilling plans for 2020 which I hope will be front ended for the likes of Jethro channel, Rappu (other cretaceous) and appraisal.
Exxon have said they will update on Hammerhead in March - I wonder if they intend simply to buy the partners interest out in it. For Tullow this could be a fairly significant chunk of cash and Exxon may get it for $5 a barrel. That's alot of drilling for us all and I'd estimate anything from $90-170m for ECO's share based on $5 a barrel and it being 800m - 1.5bn barrels.
Just conjecture on my part but if Exxon arent in such discussions with us we should be stating our view of what we have as a discovery in Hammerhead.

Marvin
Exxon and partners have given little away on Hammerhead so we need our management to tell us. Looking at the polygon gives us some clue.
For my funds, I think Jethro and Hammerhead are worth 250-300p a share. If Joe does what I think it should be nearer 400p but these are not predictions more simple calculations using the $5-8 a barrel range, the P90 figures and higher recovery factor.
The market though has ways of telling me and lots of others I dont know my arse from my elbow and is doing so right now to those holding HUR energy which hardly moved today on a good RNS.
For us, BoD need to come out with a barnstorming update to match the post Jethro enthusiasm - even more so if Joe lives up to the hype.

Marvin
That's really for your own mind, what size do you think each are. I'd look at Gils 2 interviews post Jethro result and compare to Jethro numbers in CPR around porosity, recoverability and sq.km (he mentioned 20).
Hammerhead to me looks like 10-15% of it is on our licence. How big is Hammerhead? I've seen mention Liza ins 1.8bn barrels and am sure Hess say Hammerhead is hot biggest sand accumulation they have seen. The CPR has a very different view to this.
Then it is a case of thinking what value metric to apply to each barrel - Pareto use $5 and Gil mentions $8. Then risk it based on likelihood of successful monetization. Pareto have Jetheo as 80% of value as it is discovery.
Hope this helps some....
For me, I think Jetheo is c.450m barrels and Hammerhead on our side c.150m barrels.
I'd say if the above holds and you take the middle figure between $5/$8 it comes out around £2.50 a share.
However, if we tank on a bad Joe result someone might come in opportunistically at a price much below this.
Hard to predict what can/will happen.

Thanks to Lam, Cebo and Lefitlate - looks like anything that may have happened is but a wrinkle and based on the timelines an RNS by end-Sept is still very likely.
Cebo - I'm with you in thinking by mid next week and also on where good news might take us.