Member Info for InJamesweTrust

Itsyou
I think you're missing the purpose of the point, or maybe I'm not making it very well quite - likely the latter.
Hannam using their modelling valued the 37.5m barrels at 88p/share. That gives a handy metric to extrapolate to what we have found already and what we are yet to drill.
So we have found probably 25m in Hammerhead, 60m in Jethro and 15m in Joe.
We will then drill for another 180m net to Eco (or more) in H1 making 280m net. Compared to 88p for 37m barrels that makes 7-8x that per share value (less the issuance in April). Even at 40-50% of that we are talking about excellent returns for us as shareholders and not even valuing the remaining barrels.
Note - Hammam calc was before the fund raise.

Just got diverted to the Hannam note from last October, who rated a 500m barrel Hammerhead find with 50% on our licence as 88p a share. So that is 37.5m barrems being worth 88p share to ECO. I'd say from Hammerhead, Jethro and Joe there is c.105m barrels currently net to Eco which on the above basis equates to £2.46.
Add the drilling to come (Jimmy, Jethro channel, Kannukku and Malone being c.1.2bn barrels or 180m net to Eco) and that is a further £4.22, making £6.69.
This apportioned zero value to the 3 to 4 billion barrels remaining after the H1 drilling plan. So taking $1.50 per barrel on 3bn that is $675m is a further £2.84 making £9.53 per share.
Updates should therefore be interesting as we sit at 140p.

Maverick
Just an ops update fro Tullow no Capitsl Markets Day in November. It is unusual but I think it is delayed until they farm down, partly because of their *******s in Ghana and the failed farm down in Africa.

I'm due to finalise a report that week, maybe a trip to spend time with my London team is called for around 28th.

AdUK
Think you may have take a metaphorical or actual bump to the head. So metaphorically or actually count to 10 before posting random paranoid *******s.
So you're unikely to work in O&G again, oh well neither are lots of folk. You're 65 and had a decent run stop trying to denigrate other people character out of some sense of misplaced spite or being wronged.

Aduk
You seem to have quite the chip on your shoulder regarding accumulated wealth.
The market is willing buyer/willing seller and the price is determined thus.
The 'value' may be different to the price but you have to wait out the irrational nature of the market to get to that point. This has been the downfall of many.
I cant help feeling you're having a pop at some folk and after your.own conduct I'd get back in your box to be honest.

One think Total /QP partnership would be more evenly split. QP given its size doesn't farm in here just for a laugh nor does Total.
The Tullow farm down is interesting, any major operator not involved in the block can get in while maybe only a third of the potential/likely/probably resources have been drilled making these cheap and the remainder very cheap on a dollars per barrel basis. The fact they can secure operatorship and drive the timeline is an enormous plus too.
For 23% of Tullow and our 15% an entity has 38% controlling interest. Tullow can probably get a carry across 3 phases of development (back ended payment so good for upfront cost) and some money to pay down debt and Eco opt for cash.
£1bn plus carry to Tullow and £2.0bn to Eco equates to an upfront cost of $5 a barrel if we have drilled 2bn barrels then. The remaining 2-4bn barrel upside comes free in such a scenario. The subsea work is maybe another £3bn and FPSO can be debt funded and chartered for a major.
Just need to get drilling.

There are a million reasons including a spiv in the city unloading a wedge of shares (in profit from fund raise) whose mate just happens to have a short position.

No point fulminating- Eco need to be more pro active if they are concerned and state clear timelines. Problem is Tullow possibly have them tucked up tight as Operator and may risk a heavy penalty if releasing info Tullow want in house.
There is commercial reality and nobody is arguing the oil is there but the market is bloody weird sometimes.

Aduk
Of course they are harmful to you, it is just you are resigned to the fate of death (or think you are) so feign a lack of concern.
65 is a young age for many today and with children/grandchildren many wish to live far beyond that so would happily give up the frankly foul habit of smoking.
As for HUR problem being a lack of debt, that is as ridiculous as saying cigarettes are not harmful.

Shpunken
You may be right as it drifts on no news.
The Tullow interview seems foolish at best, ridiculous at worst given how it is contradicted by the Analyst report quoted on ADVFN yesterday and by the CEO quote after the find. I do find them an odd bunch.
However, lookingbat fundamentals we have a large discovery in Jethro, its channel should yield the same. Jimmy likely to yield as much as Joe and prospects all around them and Hammerhead. I believe these alone eqaute to around 1bn barrels or 150m net to Eco. On Gils metric ($8 a barrel) that is $1.2bn or $6.31 a share - so £5.00 in UK.
That ignores a) the remainder which I think now is another 4-5bn barrels
B) the potential to prove Malone and Kanukku which I think will be getting on for another 800m barrels plus - nearer to 1.5bn barrels if we test Rappu when drilling Jimmy.
Again, ignoring the rest of the field that would be £12.50 on Gils $8 a barrel metric.
We may not get near those actual values but there is much more value than £1.30 in the stock in my view.

S&P Global Platts - on Media section of Tullow website, Paul McDade said "The company is confident of the commercial value of this prospect" post the Jethro discovery. That somewhat contradicts the Cazenove chaps quote.

It is ironic given their concerns on Commerciality the Tullow presentation says "Guyana - a transformational opportunity for Tullow" who are £3.5bn MCAP.
Equally, Hess who are £16bn MCAP say the same and Exxon have massive dividend expectations and cashflow improvements attributable to Permian and Guyana mainly.

But yep the commerciality of these fields isnt certain!

The problem with trying to raise $500m now is the MCAP is £260m so a TO at 100% premium would give you control for £500m.
So I wonder if there is a way PI could invest in a convertible instrument or through their platforms indicate appetite for a raise at 5p and see how much debt may be needed.
Incremental solutions are bad as the sword of dilution at next fund raise will always hang over the company.

They are probably trying to get across the need for deep pockets and major investment to be encouraged as it will be needed to take the fields to production.
However, if they truly were concerned about the fields development potential they would never have led with production casing on Jethro now would they.
Either in terms of the QP deal or whoever they may wish to farm down to it will need significant cap ex.
Doesn't change where Eco are mind you.
Communication wise Tullow are a bit like the old dowager in Downton Abbey. Miserable.

Trek/Rover
I'd say the $45-60 range is the longer term assumption of many oil companies for longer term projects. The price their willing to pay for barrels in the ground being reflective of the macro environment and longer term picture.

I'd go back to the BP comment about advantaged projects being their focus. This postcode is clearly advantaged or Exxon and Hess would not be investing the funds they are next door. The quick monetization and multi FPSO solution being self funding quickly all improve the NPV of a development hence moving us up the $5-10 in a ground value per barrel of quoted.
To this end Eco and partners need to get on with proving it up (if it can be) and appraising what is already there.
Tullow have well known debt issues and will want a carry so if you're going to get that it needs to be a decent sized player and many will want in to this postcode.

So.much of the funding was in place and the price was 30p on the back of that. I'm surprised given the potential for wipeout of existing debt holders and shareholders that a compromise cannot be reached.
Alot of PI's arent in the class of sophisticated investor but it must be feasible to do a raise of £250m at 10p (a third of the price when it was believed the RCF would proceed) with the remaining RCF stumped up by a strategic investor convertible at 10p per share - let's be honest the debt sits above the shares.and this.would sit below the bank/bond funding that was in place so it is either convertible for control or is burned).
I'm sure many PIs are exhausted but if it breathed life into the project some institutions may buy in also....
People have managed to overcome worse hurdles...

Namibia can be debated endlessly. I think the preferred strategy is to unlock as much of the value in Guyana as possible in the short term. Then monetise that and I firmly believe we.will do that in conjunction with Tullow.
This has the hallmarks of what BP indicated would be an advantaged project and see them being strongly interested in the opportunity to take operatorship here.
Presuming we get to the stage of monetizing Guyana, I think Eco will then be keen to drill in parallel with a partner Namibia. This makes a great deal of sense - if it is anything like Guyana one licence may be farmed in to and another developed independently if they are confident of read across.
Primary portion of cash from Guyana would be a dividend or buy back (can easily split Guyana business as a separately listed entity with an agreed TO price in place).
That leaves Eco to concentrate on Namibia.

Daltrey
Think he is retired since being sidelined from his little company where they cratered the private equity valuation before being taken over. So he has time on his hands.

Yep totally uninformed - hows your spread bet.

Biffa
Curious what the reference to the $300k underlying value is? Fairly moot though as dont think they would have the cash. Rock and hard place as they dont want debt constraining field development options.
Otherwise agree if redeeming all outstanding bonds they can do.so.