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Posted on Eco BB about Total giving away details (possibly) of next drill targets.

Looks very interesting, as someone on ADVFN has indicated they've coured in the Jethro channel as a discovery (probably a very high CoS). What is more interesting are a) joe is a play opener (if Guyana features large in Totals corporate presentation it is bloody massive) and b) the prospects. Kumaka and Malone on the Orinduik block look strongly like the next drill targets to be done in addition to appraisal.
Looking at their map versus the CPR this looks like Amatuk also and combined they are 895m barrels for P50.
Plus Joe, Jethro, Jimmy and Jethro channel.
I'd say this is first sight of the 2020 drilling campaign and may prove up in excess of 1.7bn barrels or c.250m net to Eco - IF SUCCESSFUL.
I'm just going to lie in a darkened room and let that sink in for a while and wonder what that 1.7bn barrels might equate to in revised CPR.

Was a few days early with my 44p prediction, rats!

What on earth is the share doing!

I posted similarly when Eco was 60p and Sou were 20p.

The BoD might be running a beauty parade of bidders but frankly I doubt it. I'm not close enough to it but look in on the bb periodically and have seen no mention of such an auction.
Sounding off- it is an open market a potential bidder can act how they wish within the market rules. The only potential hurdle being an NDA for a bidding process which would make them insiders. Alas, I dont feel that is a hurdle to anyone.
Just posting an opinion om potential paths for capital restoration/preservation. I still watch with interest as a former holder. As I do sometimes in IQE and other stocks.

Hi

To all the holders still waiting for the promised LE, I hope your patience is rewarded but I fear talk of 35-150p is wildly optimistic. There is a very instructive tweet from Frances Coppolla on Thomas Cook restructuring and management misrepresenting the financial task at hand. Particularly if they are well remunerated and wish to hand on to their high salary and corporate perks.
I say this, if the Sound assets were.marketable someone would be in by now with a 15-20p offer which is a 100-150% premium which I believe most would take. I'm sorry but I just dont see it happening.
If it were me, I'd see better chances in the likes of Eco or Hur for restoration of capital loss as eve though SP's are much higher if their good news continues they can be more sure of 3 or 4 bagging than I think is likely here.
Genuinely, good luck to all holders the above is JIMO but it is.one I backed by changing my own O&G stocks that I held having once owned Sound.

Trendz

They make the market work so if buyers are below the ask they will drop this to get nearer the bid. Would never suggest they do this to accomplish large trades af lower prices in order to increase commission.

Frustrating to see it up and down like, well pick your phrase.

Agree with the post regarding the actual value here and the potential still to accrue. Details on the expected Carapa results would be good. Tullow have a trading update on 13 Nov - this may be rolled into a CMD type day which they dont currently have scheduled I notice.
I'd expect by then theyd want to know drill plans, have rig secured and be in position to drill early in 2020. They need to prove up to farm out.
There is the new CPR also.
Fair value must be closer to 300-350p now when one considers the prospects above the discoveries already made.
I do wonder if a market to entice buyers at 217p was made on Monday by MMs with lots buying in expecting a further boost and from there down to 190p people who bought for a quick churn are now on a loss and selling out. With MMs using a low price to mop up their shares cheaply and keeping it low to push the sales.
Believe strongly in the value case - much of the review of results will be done for Tertiary while waiting for Carapa news and I dare say some re-interpretation on a broad base of potential Carapa outcomes will be under way also. Gil did mention the boys are working on it already.

John
Their not interested in the main market, corporate governance is too frightening for them. Explaining ops in detail seems to have no interest and I think (the main reason) the VCP would be subject to great scrutiny if listed on the main market and the remuneration report would be voted down pretty swiftly.

Andy
My question would be why remain invested over the next 3, 6, 9 months. I dont want meaningless film flam from the board but given production is above expectations both in flow rate and up-time can they not seek to emphasise this.
Perhaps also emphasise the strong cash generation this has resulted in, the fact (if it has) that the first shut ins to test pressure communication proceeded as planned or better.
Yet again it's a miserably dry update that just makes you think meh!

Hi Andy,

44p looks available so I'll take that if I may?
Well done for organising

75 - 150m barrels from Gil in Andrew Scott interview.

FWIW- I still think BP and Shell will be very interested in the block. For the money they would need to pay to Eco and Tullow (as I've said many times Tullow happily taking smaller cash upfront for carry later) can give access to potentially 40% plus of more than 4bn barrels for $2-3 a barrel with possibly 50% of that drilled and essentially 2P.

Such a low upfront payment for assets that can be quickly monetized makes other market transactions seem expensive or just this one seem cheap. Hess make clear the production solutions are cash positive in as little as 2yrs. So even a new player could be producing by 2022 and reaping net returns by 2024.
HUR might start thinking about an FID for their Lancaster field in 2022! Shows the difference of bringing in a major.

Maverick
Bang on I think, just read it also and my take aways were:

Jethro and Joe appraisal possibilities - little appraisal needed for Jethro likely to include Jethro channel.

Joe - if appraising I'd imagine likely to test Rappu also. Should be better understood by then.
Exploration programme slide 24 2x drills Guyana. This is part of $150m exploration budget but Tullow made clear another line item could be used for appraisal and were pushed by analysts last year about need to move quickly.

Presentation explicitly states, Joe derisks the prospects in the West of the the block directly contradicting Rystad. There are multiple prospects which cross cross beneath Joe and could be appraised in any work.

Drilling has shown the.propsects have excellent reservoirs
Confirmed clarity of seismic interpretation
Derisks Tertiary plays

Malcy says now 75% CoS likely in CPR, Gil says likely to be much higher. New CPR around end Oct (Gil 3-5 weeks) and in October Tullow have a trading update.

Should think drilling will commence quickly in new year to prove what they have for a quick farm out. Possibly in conjunction with Eco share.

All in very positive, Tullow arent given to easy hyperbole and they are positive indeed on prospects.

The drills.part of the presentation hasn't changed.
I'd be amazed if Tullow arent already discussing their options. The drills will be front loaded as Jethro appraisal to include the channel and likely a Cretaceous. That could add up to 1bn barrels to the c.6-700m already discovered (inc. Hammerhead) and gives them a pretty chunky prize to discuss with potential investors.
Of course, such a course.of action leaves Eco with 255m barrels and another 345m (plus any CPR UPLIFT) still to.play for so even at $8 a barrel a great value opportunity for a major.

Itsyou
Obviously I paraphrase with regard to Jethro but one has to take into account the potential recovery factor possible and the porosity. These appear from Gils comments to be materially higher than assumed in the CPR.
This is (imo) likely to take the number into or above the P10 range.

So Joe might be a P90 number instead of a P10 number. The low case for barrels on the licence is still 250m barrels using the lower porosity assumptions of the CPR. Jethro looks closer to P10 in volume so the licence likely somewhere in between.
There is an enormous amount to play for just around Jethro alone so not sure Inget where this.market concern is coming from!

When I looked last night think it bounced off around 143p equivalent in Canada.
Still hold that even if Joe is 60m barrels we are nowhere close to fair value for the assets at current MCAP.

What seems the fly in the ointment to me about theRystad quote about the West is that Tullows new presentation and Gils interview both say Joe is.play opening and derisk the Tertiary ages/Western licence area.
In essence the opposite of what Inreas Rystad to be saying and presumably the cause for all the concern.

What Rystad are saying is that Joe reads across to reduce the prospects in the rest of the Western edge of the licence. I'm curious how they'd be privy to such specialist market sensitive knowledge.
Jethro has blown the CPR doors off. Hammerhead extends and is a mega field, auritik, MJ-3, KB, Kanukku to name but a few and equate to 2bn barrels plus.
It's all over, pack it up and go home boys!
What a load of *******s if Jethro is 400m barrels, Hammerhead 15% of 800m barrels and Joe 60m then we are struggling by on 90m barrels proven so far which is 300p a share.
Not counting the potential in the rest of the licence.

Riptonk
That is a useful comparison and at 52ft Joe is.not far short of some of those pay zones depth wise. Indeed if the thinner sands are commercial it may match nor exceed them. It is still over a c.25km area and equates to a 5 storey building to use Gils analogy so remains a decent size.
Potentially with Rappu underneath and Jimmy nearby it may work as a stand alone in isolation from Jethro.
As mentioned by many, a proper update is really what is needed now - initially as an interim measure and then more detail once computed. Timelines would be good also.