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Ah the market, so easy to predict - 5p up today on what exactly!

Just looking at CPR again as like to delve in from time to time. The prospects are nuts and the likely chances of success Gil alludes to will make interesting reading.

Couple or folk before indicated potential drill speeds and I wonder if they're able to do so again in feet/m per day. Interested to get an idea of back-up progress on Carapa.

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Seems to be as you were, no specific timing o CPR but after Carapa results. Given the variety of drilling options partners are balancing the need to add resources versus the benefit of moving to early production for Jethro - I wonder who is pushing which.
Confirmed again Joe is bigger than 1st anticipated which likely puts it higher than 100m barrels.
His $350m figure for Joe and Jethro (not Hammerhead or cash at hand) equates to 300m barrels for the 2 fields. His prior $450m figure including Hammerhead indicates 12.5m net tonus for Hammerhead or around 85m barrels on our side.
That is 385m barrels of oil from 2 drills with more to come. I think Tullow are likely to prefer the drilling for reserves option as their intention to farm out means maximising returns available.
He was clear chances of success in Tertiary will rise which should yield more value for these. Hence Tullow may wish to go after the Cretaceous.
Plans to be known Dec/Jan by which point I hope they have a rig contract and LLI are ordered. Announcing the contract would be a big step.

Have tickets for the 12th also, just hope I can slip Way from work in time.
Not sure Gil is backsliding on CPR but to make it worthwhile he needs timely release of the data by the Operator who let's face it dont exactly seem in a rush to check what's in the block. I'm amazed Tullow investors arent more ****ed off to be honest.
They are announcing a trading update on Nov 13th so conceivably could stick to the production aspect primarily but think they need to get the Orinduik story out there I'd they're still having issues in Ghana.
Frankly I'm amazed they haven't selected drilling targets already and if budgeting now for ordering Long Lead Items they must have an idea of what the programme will look like.
Look forward to hearing what Gil has to say and hope he sticks around for an informal chat afterwards.

I dont think it matters who the licence is awarded to such that exploration requirements are met. When bidding took place the question is, how many interested parties were there and was Guyana any sort of priority for them. The answer for many majors pre-Exxon is probably no it was not so the way to stimulate activity was bring in a player who was willing to prioritise it and take the risk.
Eco and Tullow have done this. Yes it may soon be time for others with deeper pockets to take it on.

Perhaps starting to exit from Fossil based assets Casapinos. Maybe explains more the sell down of HUR.

I dont think the intersectional comment has anything to do with downplaying Jethro - it is a statement that they drilled there expecting to hit a play and it came in. The same for Joe - this is a vindication of the seismic and doesn't detract at all from the porosity alluded to by Gil. It is an indication that they are confident of their geological interpretation and where to intersect fields on future drills for the pay zones.
Tullow will need to provide some detail in their ops update as unlike last year this constitutes part of their operations and frankly they could do with some gloss on things.
The drilling of Jimmy sounds fairly certain and the Jethro channel also and drilling these to also appraise Joe and Jetheo Lobe makes a great deal of sense and doesn't need a great deal of study to execute in 2020. If there is a rig onsite by February I'll be fairly happy

Wellwell
Indeed - such absolutism from the one who.FPSO solution was/is akin to flat earth theory compared to the big bold fixed platforms of his youth!
HUR will need to.look at a multi FPSO strategy which I have suggested for 3 yrs I think now.
Their problem I guess will be funding the works but some will be harsh weather equipped and.others likely to need less work than the AM. Indeed, subsea can I am sure be designed to fit if the right vessel was available.
I'd hoped they'd have.ordered some LLI last year but alas not.

For the FPSO there is an order of $2.4bn for 3 new build FPSO with Sembcorp marine. I think this is speculative but it is likely there is demand from the likes of Exxon and likely plenty of others moving to a quicker solution than full fixed platforms.

They can always release an updated presentation that morning for all to view and it.provides some time to consider for questions in the evening.

Gil should be able to say, in an ideal world we will drill 4 wells next year. Our analysis indicates possibly, A,B,C,D (Jethro Channel, Jimmy, Malone and Kumakka). Current CPR indicates post Jethro and Joe results a resource base of x and revised CoS in the Tertairy of Y.
He should also be saying we believe Joe is X and Jethro is Y million barrels. Or talking to the specific factors that make Jethro particularly a stand out.
Now given 2bn barrels in the Tertiary and CoS likely being raised to 60% plus for these prospects that should lead to an interesting note from Berenberg on risked price.

I think Gil will be useful to talk to. Will certainly try to head along. Meant to be in London that night in any case. Would be great to do a 5pm RNS to really discuss some good news with investors but alas I cant see it.
If drilling 350ft (100m) or so a day Carapa should be in pay zone by then if it spudded last week. It is a simple jack up rig in shallow water. Not sure of drilling time that is possible on these.

There is a cartoon referenced on ADVFN saying come back when you have 14 discoveries. However, I think that misses a key point. The market cap if Exxon is $290bn and of Hess it is $20bn.
These are around 100 and 1,000 times the market cap of Eco (give or take). Now, the extent to which they reference the prize in Guyana and the level of questioning the field from analysts show how big a deal it is to companies of this magnitude.

So one can easily say that although the prize may be smaller (for now) so too is the company and as a result the potential rewards are so much more significant.

Delays in CPR beyond timelines and how late the drills are is frustrating but patience here has the potential to be fantastically rewarding.

Heck, Total is a MCAP of around $150b (so 600x ours) and holds the same stake as us and the Orinduik block features on their results presentation and their commentary on the same.

It's not the worst company we could be keeping!

I wonder if the Exxon survey was to test how much of Hammerhead is on our licence and how much of Aurituk and Jethro is on theirs to see if it makes sense to see you keep yours and we will keep ours.

Biffa
You have posted your trading details before.

Not much happening until the CPR.

Watched Gils proactive interview after the Joe result and he reckons disregarding the rest of the licence there is 70% upside from this level.

I think perhaps the market tends more to the $5 value per barrel. The CPR will change that balance as it ascribes new CoS to the fields and explains what has been found and what is to play for yet in more detail.
If the drilling is successful in the New Year then even $5 a barrel will prove very lucrative. Add in a buck a barrel for the rest of the licence and Gil will be smiling with the rest of us.
If there is competition for the assets (presuming continued success) that is when the higher $8-10 figures may come into play.
To give some context either Exxon or Total in recent announcements were very happy to add barrems at $2.50 but this was from wildcat and didn't cover the spend.not rewarded.
BP currently struggling in Brazil to turn CapEx into barrels is a good example of the attractiveness of our.licence share.

RB is a clever chap and has done well, good luck to him in his endeavours.
He laid into the board as they took the company to the brink and got bent over in the fund raise because of it. Nobody has ever been held to account not have they ever felt the need to explain but Biffa keep arguing all is sunshine and light when the reality is you are naught but a mushroom to them to be kept in the dark and fed ****.
I am tempted to go o 28th Nov just to put RT on the spot but know he will simply take the huff, refuse to answer for the f#@ked up financing, cashflow balls up and AM delay.

Hil talked about the excellent porosity and the sand body dripping with oil. He also mentioned Jethro was 20km square plus. Taking those into account has led some to look at the P90 expectations and apply an uplift for better porosity and recovery also.
Think Tullow then have him a kick in the balls as they are miserable and dont seem to like good news.
On prices per barrel, the 88p a share per 37m barrels I mentioned yesterday from Hannam note in Oct'18 is also $5 ish a barrel (around $5.50) so this is a good ballpark.
The uncertainty is frustrating for PIs as I can be sure the roadshow had more detail even if off the record or just heavily hinted.
Put it this way, $5 a barrel for what will be drilled (if success continues) by end H1'20 and $1/$1.50 per barrel for remaining prospectivity would lead to a very strong outcome.

Noix
Unless we.get sight of the true value of the Qatar deal with Total (including deferred consideration such as Total interest in Qatar gas fields) the any comparison is apples and pears.
I've made clear the sale is for producing assets I expect people can surmise that equates to infrastructure cost being sunk already. However, such assets are also much closer to decommissioning and costs to be incurred there compared to Guyana.
There are myriad variables but taking them into the.mix gives one an idea of industry prices.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/10/14/neptune-energy-pays-215m-north-sea-assets/
Adds 30m barrels (producing) and they have paid $250m for the privilege or in excess of $8 per barrel.

I reckon about 15% of Hammerhead extends and would envisage it is about 750m-1bn barrels.
I think Jethro is 350-400 with the channel same again and Joe is 100m.