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Some comparative analysis such as that offered by Cebo below would be helpful in the RNS. Demonstrating commerciality clearly in the communication would soothe many concerns. They're still striking oil though which is always good and better than a dry hole.

Even if the read across may be minimal a success would be good for all parties.
Again, Hess and Exxon are spending tens of billions so the doom and gloom seems almost certainly overdone here- barring another black swan.

Eas10
Tullow are quoting 15% for Carapa - not Eco.
Tullow stated CoS for Jethro was around 20%, this was Angus McCoss in their Capital Markets Day video last November.
Hence, they had Jethro at half the level Eco measured it and there is nothing to (given their general approach) they are not being similarly cautious with CoS on Carapa.
This is to be fair part of their current problem, your supposition on maintaining debt as a posion pill is an interesting one. If 3 drills here (Guyana) played right for them they could be debt free and on a carry for 25% by end of 2020.

Proselenses
No it is not. The Carapa CoS is from Tullow and Angus McCoss in their Capital Markets day last November stated c.20% CoS for Jethro saying this is still wildcat.
Ian Cloke their new ventures EVP did not contradict this but you could see the eagerness he had relating to the basin. The increase to 20% was the Hammerhwad analogy from the seismic. They are very conservative in estimating.
Go back and view it is on their website.
So take Tullow 20% to Eco CPR 43% and consider the extrapolation to Carapa similarly which would make 30-35% CoS.

Simonpf
As regards drilling schedule, I cant see that being allowed to slip too much - Qatar and Total would have something to say.
The oil analysis is an unknown but the viscosity, temperature and over pressure should compensate for increased 'heaviness' the analysis might show up. The absence of more detailed info on this is frustrating.
Capara is not considered on the Orinduik fairway but a negative result wouldnt help.
I'm in no way suggesting £17 a share per the Hannam report. There will likely be 2 or 3 drills next year and they'll either be successful and taken out or fail and we'll go under. I'd say the risk of the latter is somewhat less likely than the former.
15% CoS at Carapa is just shy of the 20% CoS attributed to finding oil at Jethro and Joe Tullow attributed prior to drilling.
The heavier nature of the oil is something of a black swan but likely attributable to being Tertiary than a licence issue.
Do you have an indicator that gives.you the concern?
I wonder if Tullow just kitchen sinked a bad update or if they are alerting the market to what they know now and hoping Carapa fixes it for them.

Zebbo
Were you able to find your comment around 3.5% refining restriction?

I'm genuinely curious as although it may add 20% to refining costs that is very different from taking 20% off the free cashflow as refining costs represent a small portion of overall costs and are are likely incurred by the buyer and represented in any discount to crude benchmark so highlighting here is almost a double count.
The CapEx question (injecting heat to make the oil fluid) is covered by Hannam and with that the breakeven is still below $40 a barrel.
So at $60 oil there is $14bn plus value (nominal not discounted) in a 700m barrel field such as Jethro and that is maybe 10-15% of the licence potential.
Concerns around commerciality seem overdone as a result and on sensible metrics this should have greater upside moving forward.

Shpunken
And should such a situation come to pass then in 6 months they may have 2.5bn barrels plus ready to develop - two thirds of which is Cretaceous and therefore likely lighter and sweeter than the Tertiary.
49p I ask you!

Shpunken
They know the viscosity, temperature and over.pressure in the well. HH has successfully done 2 DSTs so a drill to confirm the channel and then a DST to confirm a 700m barrel plus commercial field would have a fairly quick impact and at $30m or so for the well - isnt a bad way to get some sheen back for Tullow.who have dropped c.900m or more in MCAP.
There is then 2 c.700m barrel fields in deep late mature targets in Kumakka and iaituk straddling DJ and Aurituk an extension of hammerhead all in this area.

So the SP is bobbing about in the doldrums tossed by the odd storm following the news. Many outlets have made clear oil has a high likelihood of being commercial given the field parameters (viscosity, temperature and over pressure) at Jethro which with its lobe/channel is likely 700m barrels.
Maccamd mentioned drilling this and a Cretaceous target in 2020 but what and when. Looking at pg31 of the CPR it shows the expected source rock and where the early, mid and late mature oil is. Looking at our licence for mid to late maturity oil in the Cretaceous it seems to me it will be DJ (150m barrels) and one of Kumakka or Aurituk (650m barrels plus each). These are older rocks 4500m or so deep and less likely to degraded and more likely to be lighter due to pressure/time factors.
So, when? I note the Stena Forth went to Gha a on completion in Guyana on a 3 drill contract which should has just finished and she (Stena Forth) is.now re-route to Brazil.
Tullow has an.option on the vessel which it has partly/fully assigned to Karron energy that it is partnering on drill in Peru in April/May. I wonder what the ship is doing Jan-Mar haven't spotted any contract news (alas I think activity will be nearer end H1'20).

Zebbo
I.notice you have posted in multiple BBC's since being asked multiple times to back up your assertion that oil content above 3.5%. Sulphur cannot be refined (Hannam note indicates this can be done on FPSO.
Your heavy oil comment clearly not accidental is quite sad too having been a.poster previously that seemed fairly decent.
Amazing what money making it/losing it does to some folk and really very sad.
Even with 50% increase in base case Capex the fields are viable below $40 oil.

Cebo
I can think of the CEO to whom you may be referring.
To be fair, I think heavy oil was something of a black swan to most PI's.
Discounting Gils valuation of oil in the ground still yielded an excellent prospective SP based on exploration but the fly in ointment is glacial pace of Tullow progress.
He does need to temper his natural enthusiasm and there is likely a happy medium between the 2 CEO approaches if you talk of whom I suspect ;-)

Marvin
Yes, my driver is that for a relatively small outlay Tullow can resolve a great deal of issues in event of successful drilling of the Cretaceous on discovery of oil similar in quality to Stabroek.

Nobody is suggesting it is like for like.
However, posters suggesting 3.5% sulphur cannot be refined without posting detail to substantiate and then presuming the licence is heavy and sour across the area doesn't help anyone get clarity.
The BoD need to get their finger out but are hamstrung by Tullow in some regard.

Simon
The market doesn't like uncertainty and the update from Tullow was hardly comprehensive. They had sufficient bad news elsewhere to focus on and I dare say their CEO is currently fighting for his job.
This is a problem for a smaller player like Eco as anything they state is deemed to be from self interest.
I am curious if there is a level at which sulphur cannot be refined/processed.
The comments fro. HESS CEO relate to Hammerhead which is Tertiary and he confirms they are considering it as their 4th FPSO candidate despite this being the 9th or 10th drill it is obviously a strong field in their eyes.
The big thing for Eco is to be drilling a Cretaceous target and showing large reservoir of medium oil with normal sulphur content.
Until such time as Tullow give more of an update or until Carapa comes in we are in a vacuum which again the market dislikes.

Zebbo
Still waiting.
FWIW- on $55 oil with higher costs so a $20 margin on a 12% discount factor - a 700m barrel field over 15yrs is highly profitable and would provide healthy return. Taking the NPV out the IRR is over 20%.
Hess indicate their IRR on Stabroek are above tjos level. Also Zebbo adding 20% to refining cost is not the same as adding 20% to costs. The hit to IRR is about a quarter of returns otherwise and Hess has made clear the economics of the fields is world class so even with a dent to these it should still be attractive.
Pleases to hear your sulphur rationale still.

Zebbo
Still waiting for your comment on not being able to refine oil above 3.5% sulphur.
I'm sure the 2bn barrels of heavy oil in your message below is just a type also.....

Dont get me wrong I'm not a fan of them and think they have too much on their plate to manage the exploration on the licence efficiently but for their share of 2 cretaceous drills and a pop at Rappu (likely $35-40m) they could create shareholder value of potentially 75x that if each one was a find as their share would be in excess of 1bn barrels and that's using $2-3 a barrel not the $8 oft quoted by Gil.
That should allow them to farm down the operatoerhip in return for clearing a large portion of debt and getting a free carry on the first field at a 25-30% holding which I think is their aim.
Remember also, the 15-20% CoS quoted for Carapa is not so different to the 20% quoted by Angus McCoss for Jethro and Joe. They are inherently more conservative.

Marvin
I'd be surprised they would give up so easily with the potential the licence represents.

Zebbo I'm genuinely interested in your comment about not being able to process sulphur above 3.5%. I've been reading about hydro cracking and hydrogen desulfurisation and dont see any limiting factor of 3.5% sulfur as you mentioned.

Zebbo
There are other uses than shipping and I'm curious where it states anything over 3.5% cant be refined? I have seen comments that post refining the Sulphur would be 3% maximum.