Member Info for InJamesweTrust

https://www.stena-drilling.com/our-fleet/stena-forth/

Looks available from end-Q1 '20 to me from above.

I believe Tullow have an option on it, they assigned it to Karoon for the Peru drill she is soon to start. I dare say the interim-CEO is keen to get cracking with Guyana.
The Peru decision is one I.imagine Ian Cloke was unhappy about and multiple people appear to have approached the Chair/Interim CEO to complain that McDade/McCoss were running things the wrong way (based on what was said on Tullow confirm call).
So I think Stena Forth would be prioritised for Guyana post Karoon drill if Tullows option extends further.

Confirms (Eco) plans to drill at least 2 wells targeting Cretaceous prospects in 2020 and a revised CPR by end January.
Interestingly the 3bn CPR cretaceous figure is before taking into account porosity of Jethro and Joe being considered excellent.
The 2 drills on Cretaceous are likely to target in excess of 1.5bn barrels if they go after DJ/Kumakka/Iatuk.

Kumakka has to be a strong favourite for the first drill as it straddles Orinduik and Kanukku so is a boon to Total and Tullow across both blocks after Carapa result. Iatuk also with possibly both going through DJ on the way down.

Noix
There is a page in the CPR defines the licence by maturity also.

Noix I think this is essentially what he is saying. The seismic interpretation of the reservoirs is one they are comfortable with following drilling on Orinduik and they are good to go.
With Total pushing to drill the biggest target first it is about to get very interesting.

Trek
Having previously been a bit sparse on Guyana press releases, with Ian Cloke in charge of exploration I think these will now be much more detailed. The oil may even be tested as per Kanikku before release.
I dint think it will need to be at Gil's word. For me, I get his frustration as sell off here is hugely overdone considering 2 discoveries but he is wildly enthusiastic and when he doesn't control timelines needs to caveat deliverables more (think you said you got stuck in Eco awaiting CPR or maybe Phoebus).
There will be more input than from just Gil going forwards and Colin Kinley has a great deal of heavy oil experience.
Without ramping, if Tullow indicate drilling in late Q1/early Q2 I'd say we are soon to enter (if.not in) an upward trend of higher highs and higher lows. If this confirms commerciality of Jethro and CPR is bullish on Cretaceous it may breach prior highs before the drill even turns.
If I was a.major and looking at our MCAP I'd be pretty tempted.....

Trek
It.probably is exact what Eco need, a chin scratcher for the Kanukku holders about drilling the wrong section (incidentally this is done at Joe where Total reckon a higher net pay zone was just a few metres away) so is easily done. Hence, the Kanukku partners have to think and analyse whereas Orinduik is drill ready with much more detailed analysis and time spent on where the targets are so it is likely to be prioritised.
Tullow need the boost that a couple of Cretaceous finds in this province would give to its prospects and it cannot get that boost easily elsewhere.
Up to 450m barrels net to Eco of Cretaceous which looks like it may be lighter and sweeter than the Tertiary finds.
With Stena Forth not far away and available shortly I expect us to be drilling in March/April.

42° API which is good. No.premium as BP contract states slight discount to Brent I think or based on price paid - essentially commission.

Dont forget Stabroek provides more read across than Kanukke for Orinduik in many eyes.

Think Gil expects the CPR 3 or 4 weeks after Carapa result. All the data in terms of seismic is interpreted it is how that is converted by analysis now which is the simpler less time consuming aspect.

This shows how you are full of Carapa - I have corrected you.multiple times on this previously. Tullow stated Jetheo was 20% at their CMD in Nov 2018 - it was Angus McCoss in the Q&A. Eco CPR had them higher.
Eco did not state a CoS for Carapa, hence the correct comparison to use is the Tullow one of 20%.
Carapa has found oil and may be 50-100m barrels depending how wide it is spread looking at size of Liza etc with 50-60m of net pay, I dont see Repsol SP moving much.

PTAL I have looked at incidentally.
The CPR was never coming before the Carapa result so clear why it is not yet available.
Tullow need to consider Carapa and its data to decide drilling targets - was always the case.
For a relatively modest outlay Tullow can transform their balance sheet via Orinduik. Doing so would make the interim-CEO a strong candidate for the job and see a hefty bonus bestowed which is usually a strong driver.
API and Sulphur on Jethro/Joe is being held back until assessed for commerciality in conjunction with production specialists and that will drive appraisal or not of Jethro and channel.
Total want to drive Orinduik on and the government will wish to also and am sure both have made it clear to Tullow. The read across on Cretaceous is positive and potentially a game changer if borne out on Orinduik which looks likely given the geological ages.
It is easier on Orinduik to see how the fans have spread from source into Stabroek than I could see on Kanukku.
While Carapa was 15%, Tullow had Jethro and Joe at low 20%. I think the Cretaceous on Orinduik is now substantially derisked.

Some of Pro's gems from last 6 weeks
18 Dec - Repsol dropped from 15 to 14 as Carapa a duster - they had gone ex dividend
3rd Dec - Apache has failed, a strong post code doesn't mean light, sweet oil - just before farm out to Total and Lighter sweeter oil on Carapa in Cretaceous
22 Nov - if Carapa fails Eco drops to 20p
22 Nov Nothing good outside Exxon Liza at 32.1° API and 0.5% sulfur
Now, Carapa shows good Medium oil close to Liza and when taking the gravity into account of Joe and Jethro it borders on Medium oil.
Pros agenda on this and Tullow are clear - he has spouted much rubbish in last 6 weeks to.promote it - I almost said support it but his statements dont support his bear case.
The news today should be a boon for Eco.

Maybe worth changing the header from the rubbish proselenses is trying to push across the board.

Across Orinduik the seismic read across has proven accurate - for Joe it was closer than you think and Total were pleased where it pitched and partners have since indicated volumes match pre drill estimates.
Jethro exceeded these estimates as the porosity is better than modelled- this is simply a function of CPR being modelled conservatively.
Exxon have modelled net pay on Stabroek and been happy with outcomes so quit ****ing in the wind about depth being unpredictable.
Tullow has a $350m bond repayment due and c.$250m of debt headroom expires in early 2021. Production issues are scheduled to reduce output over 3 year timeline so they need to pump the balance sheet from elsewhere. Looking around their main play is Orinduik as they control the pace.
3 drills on this licence can target 2bn barrels - if the same.porosity improvement is seen here as in Joe and Jethro then that number rises. That is getting towards 1.5bn barrels net to Tullow with up to another billion to play for which if Tullow sold an interest in at $2.50 would clear the debt and carry them across 3 production solutions. That deal.isnt available anywhere else in their portfolio and isnt available anywhere else in the industry - proven commercial reserves at $2.50 per barrel.
What would that mean for Eco, on these numbers 450m x $2.50 is 10x today's share price.
The Stena Forth will be sailing back.past Guyana when.it finishes in Peru and Tullow assigned it to Karoon so tell me it is going to sail straight past Guyana in March.
The 27° APi reads across to Liza and the accumulations in our block cross into Stabroek in many respects.
I can actually see a cheeky bid for Eco.before then as the opportunity for this to 5 or 10 bag from here with them being funded for drilling and having already proven finds is enormous.

This can be viewed a number of ways:
Pay zone not great let's be honest but 27° API is very similar to Liza as I've seen referenced.
This indicates a pretty strong Cretaceous read across.
Payzone in Orinduik have been on target and with this Cretaceous read across there is now an enormous opportunity to prove up 2bn barrels with 3 drills on the big targets in Orinduik.
Tullow has c.$175m CapEx from Dec update not applied and this would cost c.$65-70m.
Stena Forth is making her way to.Peru for Karoon drill and is ready to go sometime in March even for a 60 day drill in Peru.
What value a farm down of Tullows share of those 2bn barrels with another 1bn plus still to play for in the Cretaceous and some significant Tertiary accumulations.
If anything, this should concentrate the mind of the Tullow BoD on where their opportunities lie.

Proselenses
Carapa was their target on a different licence. The seismic interpretation has been proven up on Orinduik already with 2 drills. Geological conditions made for heavier oil in Tertiary but along with Stabroek and Kanukku it confirms the presence of lighter, sweeter oil in the Cretacous - the 27° API being bang on with Liza from memory.
As indicators go, this is enormous for Orinduik as they can be more confident now in the seismic and quality of oil to be found.
With 2-3 billion barrels of Cretaceous targets this is.an enormous opportunity for all.

For Eco this is pronably the optimum outcome, confirming the presence of lighter, low sulfur oil in the Cretaceous. Km not sure how advanced Repsol is with regard to surveying pre-drill but on Orinduik with the 3-D and fluorescent imaging they are pretty confident on payzone.
Hence, the likelihood of abundant lighter sweeter oil in the Cretaceous on Orinduik is likely to focus Tullows attention as success here could clear their debt by year end with a farm down. That potential will not/should not be lost on Dorothy Thompson and Total has made clear it is willing to commit significant cash to buy up assets in the area.
Tullow will confirm their plans by mid-February and are about to drill with Stena Forth which is en route to Peru now after a month in Brazil.
This looks to me like drilling on Orinduik immediately after Peru is on the cards so probably in March sometime.
The new CPR will likely be out late Jan/early February and increase CoS in Cretaceous now as well as Tertiary.

In the 18years from 1994 to 2012 when litigation raged, socially conscious investing rose and tobacco was a dirty word, owning these stocks produced returns of 2,200% on a sector basis. I have long felt oil and gas stocks will do the same as the realisation of how.long we need their products for and how scarce it becomes from starving the industry of investment will see cashflows perform healthily indeed.
Holding through such a period of flux can be very profitable if all works out.