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So, Tullow has.moved the needle on drilling in Guyana in a week.
Drilling all around indicates successful forays into the Cretaceous.
The petroleum system is deemed to be well defined and understood and the reservoirs well defined. Many targets are similar distance from shore as successful Exxon drills and the business need to.prove up.quickly to avoid a refinancing that involves any equity and gives them a chance at the jobs.
Any drill can fail but their understanding of the licence is increasing all the time.

Wallact
I'd suggest Tullow have been firefighting and dont know where to look first. However, there is clear disappointment at their initially proposed strategy so they seem to be actively reconsidering.
Unless the incumbents can improve the share.price in the short term the market will take a dim view of any of their prospects for the top job. That means their at risk if someone new comes in with a new broom. Hence, how do you get the much needed bump back in the SP.....so you have a chance at a continuity candidate? Exploration and the 228m barrels in Peru isnt going to do it on it's own when they have a net interest in 3bn barrels plus of Cretaceous in Guyana.
One drill could provide proof of concept for those 3bn barrels and is a billion barrel target on it's own. That must be slowly sinking in to management.

Proselenses
The sulphur is known and can be removed, it is a refining cost. The API may be mitigated by the over pressure, temperature and.mobility. The sulphur is a discount to the barrel.price, the API may not increase extraction costs as much as it.would without the mitigating factors. Jethro and the channel are 500m barrels plus and Hammerhead with potentially similar qualities is likely to go into production. Not ideal news but it remains a very large oil accumulation.
As for the drilling, in week they've (Tullow) moved from no wells to possibly 1. The market clearly wants them to drill and the budget is there, Peru is c.$30m cost and Suriname likely $20m. Kumakka would be around $15-20m for them.
They've said they may.move Suriname and might yet.do so in favour of Guyana as the petroleum system there is more proven and higher CoS.
Time will tell but drilling already looking more likely within a week as their share.price remains tanked.

You're right, my bad.

Hi extrader
If you check the big grey blob in the middle of the graph and the legend at the bottom, unless I'm mistaken its Hammerhead.....

Mrscar
Interesting article, amazing the level of Hammerhead production predicted from those rubbish Teryiary fields really that Exxon has flow tested.

EaS10
I haven't stated Tullow will farm down, I have indicated they need to drill to turn the company around. A major find in Guyana is much more valuable than a few barrels a day in terms of opportunity cost for 3 or 4 months activity.
If a farm down is the route they choose, fair enough. Noting the Apache deal with past costs paid and a $100m bonus for an oil find along with a generous carry that might do it for Tullow as gives them some breathing room.on debt repayment.

Noix
Not 2P but I did not state 2P, contingent resources and there was a question on the call but they did not answer on the split. It does say principally reserves were booked in Ghana but as I said a breakdown was not given.
To be booking anything against a 'written off' asset is questionable accounting but the narrative is clear the write off doesn't reflect prospects it is wiping the slate for positive news to hit the bottom line.

2 drills this year would make a huge difference.
Either 2x Cretaceous targeting likely 600m barrels.plus each, or
1 x Cretaceous and 1x Tertiary if drilling Tertiary strongly indicates Jethro commercial and has significant value as will likely other Tertiary targets with sufficient size/other prospects close.

Shpunken
Would agree - I reckon sometime w/c 3rd Feb will be the CPR.
The details of the CPR will be tallied against our partners own analysis to discuss next steps and potential targets and timing.
I would expect detail.on this around Tullows results in mid-March.

It was stated to a colleague last week by email that all was on track for CPR late Jan/early Feb.

Noix
It is mentioned on the conference call from memory to accompany the results. May also be in the notes of the RNS. The reserves booked are not in the magnitude of the pre-drill but that will be partly based on timing of action and outcomes for J&J. Also, if writing off expenses to clear the P&L for outperformance they cant very well book the lot against the asset as you cant then write them off.
Believe the current position is posturing and will be resolved in February.

Ronald
There is a new CPR to come and the drilling partners are meeting in February to discuss plans. Tullow has booked reserves and clearly stated Guyana remains a transformational opportunity for them.
This will be drilled and is a multi billion dollar opportunity when it is. Tullow has booked reserves against current drills and Hammerhead is also a major asset likely worth the market cap of Eco on it's own.

I think aimed more at the RonaldTrumps Wallact as their input is rather simplistic

Ultimately, none of us know precisely what is planned by any of the partners and must work on balance of probabilities. On such a balance, I believe Tullow has little choice but to drill this prospect but would like to pressure their partners to incentivise them to drill.

The amount of money involved in a drill is $40m, so around $20m for Tullow.
Not sure if anyone here has studied game theory and I dare say Tullow are waiting for discussions with partners for.how they can pull it forward and what the partners propose. TOTAL can bring in Guyana who can burn Tullow in the future on permits so the game is multi faceted.
Tullow have issues.of that there is no doubt but this asset remains the one in their.portfolio with the greatest potential to outperform and indeed transform.
Traders and morons can jump out on belief there will be no drill but I think it all part of negotiations.
What will the partners do to 'encourage' Tullow to drill - I dare say Eco would increase their share of the cost burden to drill sooner....TOTAL/QP likely the same.
Suriname and Carapa will merely firm up that resolve.

No they repay at par and need the cash to do so.
This would hamper drilling plans as bondholders less likely to convert.
Also from memory mgmt need 58p for VCP to kick in.

Tornadotony
The monetization of assets will contribute to debt reduction ultimately and if this can be done with the benefit of a carry it also has a positive impact on future cashflows. They need to keep the lights on going forward and establish new cash streams to improve the 3 or 4 year look forward valuation. Doing that while reducing the debt should allow the company/board to retain much more control of their own destiny.
FWIW- if sharks are circling, a big bang drill can completely change the bidding prospects and up the quantum in the models needed to demonstrate shareholder value.

From this level the stock has the potential to substantially outperform. However, management need to look harder at what can move the dial and ultimately as an E&P stock that is exploration.
It is a shame they have over stretched taking a shot at Peru when other priorities lay elsewhere. The potential to get funding to develop smaller fields isnt the same as once was and the Majors want Elephants to get good economies of scale which Tullow can then sell down for some cash and a CapEx carry and smaller holding.
Their key field that is advanced enough to do that is Guyana - they've 2 fields there they can work on quickly and the industry is genuinely excited about. Dorothy has mentioned monetising assets on both calls she has done - to do it in Guyana without further drilling would be nuts unless the deal was excellent.

ADUK
I.wouldnt and never have considered it a good thing that Stobie has.invested any of his own funds. The SP isnt much going to benefit from him doing so now but may stop him making out like a bandit from the VCP if any corporate action occurs.
Silver linings but thin pickings to find one right now.

Phoebus - it is ultimately $20m for Tullow to drill Kumakka which while not insignificant, it has high probability of providing a level of return that is in excess of those who have been in Rockrose Energy from the start - I.e. in the billions for a $20m spend.