Member Info for InJamesweTrust

Pro
What a surprise to see you pop up spouting your crap today. Between.now and March they are considering their investment plans for key assets in the portfolio and the Carapa results will see them high grade the Cretaceous prospects across Kanukku and Orinduik.
The Suriname well is clearly marked as H2 and Peru well due to finish in March so I would expect there is space for 1 or 2 drills in the interim in Guyana.

Genghis
Never met JP but he and RT are certainly different and RT is (for all his faults) much the more realistic and investable as has been HUR these last 3yrs since JP patter was shown to be bluster. I hope HUR continues to deliver.

Cant quite believe this is close to all time lows given all that has been delivered and the cashflow being accrued.

Someone has something wrong somewhere....looks very odd.

Notice that our friend Pro has been suggesting the Cretaceous was unsuccessfully tested as part of Jethro and the Repsol price dropped due to a drill fa despite it being the fact it went ex-divi.
Big few weeks coming up for Eco and Tullow this week as Tullow has interim and final updates, new CPR and potential drilling likely either in H1 or H2 - let's hope H1 but Tullow arent exactly known for their dynamism I hope their critical business position helps them prioritise opportunity.

Both of these prospects look good and are in the late mature section Cretaceous where Apache has had such a good result recently.

Guyanabased
The exec chair is the de-facto CEO and most discussions with partners will be through Ian Cloke and rubber stamped by senior management. In the absence of a CEO, Dorothy Thomson has full exec authority to act for the company it would seem and this is no barrier to drilling.
As alluded to, in H1'21 Tullw has a significant debt repayment to make.
The Peruvian well is one they are doing with Karoon energy and they assigned Stena Forth to them to facilitate it. I maintain drilling end Q1 on Orinduik - most likely Kumakka.

How about 4.4p from Anglo American and shareholders get to keep 20% of the business for 5 years when Angla can buy at an agreed strike price relative to the weighted losses since the funding was pulled and this deal done or the 90day VWAP whichever is lower.

Not sure Tullow need to process the data much further, bear in mind they have been looking at data on Orinduik Cretaceous prospects for almost 2 years now and Total for 15 months. They have had the drilling results from Carapa for a few weeks (hence API etc).
Colin Kinley was clear the reservoirs are clearly identified on the seismic, without being overly simplistic they have much of what they need. I would imagine the timeline is.now driven by Stena Forth availability for commencement of drilling. Total apparently know what they want to drill and if the reservoirs are well defined working out where should already be done.
There may be some work to do on how they might test Jethro but can complete this as they drill Cretaceous.....
Tullow could certainly do with a bump in SP and the Analysts will want to be thrown a bone or two having not had sufficient/significant access to management for some time now.

Possibility of Rhinehardt making a higher offer? Am guessing Chris Fraser explored options with her already....

Interestingly the pay zones in the Apache discovery look similar to Jethro and on trend with the sizes on Stabroek.

So on a single drill with a double discovery the Apache market cap is up $2.6bn. They have 50% of the licence so just over 3x our interest in Orinduik but they're market cap increased by c.22x our size yesterday.
We have a substantial discovery (which Gil and Colin believe is commercial) and Colin Kinley has clearly stated there are large well defined reservoirs in the Cretaceous which Gil is adamant we will be drilling this year.
Total has indicated it will do transactions, Shell has won the auction to market the oil. Chevron, BP and the Chinese must be interested as must India. This licence is crying out to be taken on by a major and driven forward - Tullow need to organise drilling before they work out how cheap they and we currently are.

I'm surprised Pro isnt here shouting about the failure he said Apache had in their hands back in early Dec!
Fantastic discovery, took the market some time to digest the info on Kanukku and read across but see this as being a significant bonus to the investment case for Eco and their potential bounty in the Cretaceous.
With the prolific news, I dont think it is just the depth of Totals pockets. The API is cracking news too.

Finished around 65p on TSX

We were almost there (200p) before and above it on a Friday evening in Canada I think. If analysis suggests Jethro is commercial (this may take some time yet) and drilling is confirmed then with a new CPR that is potentially a triple catalyst for the SP.
First step is Tullow interim update next week, results 15th Feb and AGM in late April.
If Dorothy can find 1bn barrels of oil in Guyana and have a champion in Ian Cloke by that AGM date she just might get a longer shot at the job.

Mav7
To be fair he suggested 200p pre drill over the weekend so not really talking it down!

Shpunken
Tullow are due to give an interim update next Wednesday I think. This may not cover Guyana but is due to give some detail on turnaround plan.

It is a bit of a challenge to talk numbers here without looking like Rampy McRamperson.
One benefit of the uptick is the relative silence of Proselenses!
The two big Cretaceous targets represent 1.4bn barrels based on porosity assumptions pre 2019 drilling. There are another 1.4bn barrels of Cretaceous prospects.
If the CPR indicates a CoS of 40% for these you could see what they does to a risked price target 40% x 410m x $? Per barrel for the net value to Eco. The unrisked target being 410m x $? Per barrel.
These values divides by shares in issue get you to a risked and unrisked SP based on Cretaceous targets before any change in volumes from CPR.

The rumour (from on here) is Total wish to target billion barrels with the first drill. If so, that is is 150m barrels net to Eco which at say $5 a barrel is $750m or $3.75 per share. Completely ignoring other drills and how it could provide very strong read across for the remainjng Cretaceous prospects.
The CoS must be closer to 40% or above on these drills and 60% plus on the remaining Tertiary which should not be discounted in the price either.

Do think the confirmation bit is important, however Gil did specifically mention meeting with partners to decide the schedule. I dont think Total would wish to delay and I am sure Guyana is keen to see another licence demonstrate success so they can open up new round applications and maximise interest.
The CPR Gil will have an idea on, the c.2.8bn barrels of Cretaceous should (I think) see an uplift in CoS and an uplift in resource to reflect porosity. The Tertiary will likely see a similar uplift in both resource and CoS and I think it is wrong to discount the value some of these fields have as they are closely located many of them allowing scale to be achieved.
Anyway, back to confirmation - if Tullow indicate a drill to appraise Jethro and channel that's a big plus as it shows faith in commerciality of the find, if 2 more drills confirmed on Cretaceous as Gil says these will.likely target large reservoirs and Colin Kinley seems pretty bullish on prospects there.
Success in these makes the terms Tullow can get for a farm out immeasurably better and also increases their net asset position significantly making debt a lesser issue.
It will then be for the big boys to come in and take it on to production and they'll ultimately get a great deal given what their funding costs are - if the news flow.is good between now and the summer (hope my drill timeline proves accurate as cant see how Stena Forth would sail on by). Tullow may need her in Ghana but a 3 month stop in Guyana en route can create infinitely more value than the extra 500k barrels production it may achieve in Ghana - if its issues could be fixed so quickly which from guidance appears unlikely.

Mrd
I think the 87k is average for the year, I'd wager daily production is already down near the 75-80k mark and this is what has continued to drag the years average down the 3 times they've had to guide on it. My guess is they hope it bottoms around here and begins to improve.
With a fair wind they could be getting skme pretty chunky revenue from production on Orinduik by 2023.
The announcement on Carapa seems to.suit.Orinduik better than Kanukku but there is a.1 billion monster that straddles both fields and could be the first drill - Kumakka.