Member Info for InJamesweTrust

Simonpf
Time will tell on Jethro, if the channel is there it is several hundred millions of barrels with good viscosity and high pressure/temperature thus indicating good potwntialnproduction parameters.
Primary targets likely to be the Cretaceous ones in line with Pluma, Tripletail and Turbot at same depth as Liza.
Also, HH remains in their sights and they indicate it will be next or subsequent FPSO. They dont drill 3 holes in 3 months for extended tests for nothing.

Wilkcoutts
Thanks, the $40 may be on presumption the channel.is a discovery also making economics significantly better.
The constant changing of dates isnt good but think Tullow mgmt has been running around like headless chickens and looking at Commerciality of Jethro based on temps/over pressure to qualify their rather sparsely worded update simply hasn't been a priority.

Edison or Eco are on record as saying the scenarios are break even below $40 per barrel. $60 may relate to Joe.

Jaykay
Ones timelines can guide ones sentiment.

Jaykay
I've been.heavily critical of McDade and McCoss and championed Ian Cloke since long ago. I've also been critical of Gil but guess you just enjoy jumping in now and then to be an arse.
In terms of opportunities I'm not a day trader as MiFiD2 doesn't allow it so look at the medium to long term.
If.you disagree with my assessment on cash for CapEx or anything else I've written feel free.

Mrd
Banks are not keen on running companies and unless there is more to come out of the woodwork (the Chair would have to be seriously daft for this to be the case) then it should steady as selling seems enormously overdone.
As strategy becomes clear then so will the path to value creation and even opportunistic bidders would need to be offering a hefty premium.
250p might be a ways off but there are strategic options to get them back there in 6-12 months with success at the drill bit and stabilising production numbers.
Good luck.

Tullow has had 50% of the debt outstanding wiped off its MCAP today and almost the full amount of debt wiped off in last six weeks. It has lost c.£2.94bn in market cap from when it was c.250p and is now capitalised at £560m.
The enterprise value has gone from around £6.5bn to £3.5bn in this time which is still a heavily discounted rerate.
With the added advantage of £/$ dynamics (although less at play in O&G sector) thisnstock must be on radar of some significant players. The Chinese are also heavily invested in Africa and dare say would like a bite of Guyana too but their markets would not have seen the drop/RNS before close.
I wonder if Guyana may request Total becomes minority operator of the licence? While Tullows travails are clearly very disappointing they are still projected to produce free cashflow and the Guyanese have as many levers as they like to push their agenda if they dont think Tullownwill move the licence forward with enough speed.

Mrd
The market can be quite irrational and the selling here is.overdone. The Chair knows the business and needs.to issue an update outlining a plan - if they know the business this can be done to all intents and purposes by tomorrow and pitched to analysts on Wednesday in a call.
Production has dropped 25% - the dividend been chopped but the fall is way out of kilter. Being able to hold while market is irrational until sense sets in is vital.
All the debt chat is overdone, Les Wood said this.morning they remain comfortable in their covenants.

Achilles
How was there £300m in interest last year on $2.9bn of debt are you seriously trying to suggest their funding is at 12% dont be ridiculous.

So far we have uncovered c.500m barrels of oil, which is about 75m net to Eco. Jimmy looks very much like a discovery and the Jetheo channel seems a relatively strong chance that will be 1 billion barrels or so and around 150m net to Eco.
The 75m to date is being valued at $1.50 per barrel having been at c.$5/6 a barrel immediately after discovery. We seem to be shooting for c.1.5bn barrels in 2020 which would make 300-375m net to Eco. Even at $1.50 per barrel that is still around 4-5x the current share price.
Now let's say it is heavy oil, if Exxon can take it off Tullow and Eco hands at $1.50 a barrel with facilities aplenty to blend and process (when oil costs $5-12 a barrel to find) that represents a very good deal for them and clears Tullows debt just about as well as giving a strong return here. This is probably worst case scenario any lighter crude in the Cretaceous.
I note Iatuk sits near Hammerhead and deeper than Liza while Kumakka is about similar depth to Liza 31°API both being c.650m barrels (and if porosity is same as Jethro potentially much bigger). Mako also sits in this area as does Amaila (which is a bit higher in Cretaceous but looks pretty big).
Depths taken from Eco corporate brochure.

https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/guyana-a-peek-into-new-discoveries-and-a-field-comparative.html#

Gives an idea of the numbers and the reward available here.

Guyanabased
Total CEO specifically talked about the drilling campaign at Orinduik in their annual results and since. Patrick Pouyanne I think.
But hey, I'm sure a billion barrels with half proven up over a productive drilling campaign means little to them even if it is in a province that is cash positive inside 3 years (hint not many are).

Zebbo now you're holding I'm guessing that is sarcastic to Guyanabased!

Guyana based
I'm not sure Tullow are operator on Kanuku block, is that not Repsol so decisions on activity there in are not theirs to take. Also, I dare say Total and QP are keen to explore Orinduik quickly and the government is keen to see multiple blocks drilled so they can subtly tell companies to get a move on.
Even bigger reason is Tullow has 60% of Orinduik and 37.5% of Kaukku. In a success case Orinduik is transformational for Tullows balance sheet and carriyng interest based on opportunities to sell down and still hold a material interest in the field.

Casa
On the basis Lancaster can keep producing, the cashflow funds much of the development work that may be required to pursue a second FPSO option on LanFax.
If HUR update a strategy along these lines they could by end 2021 be producing 100k bopd plus from a 2bn field. Making further production hubs feasible also.
However, some further clarity on water cut would be helpful.

Wallact
An interesting article. Thinking of Exxons size, there is nobody like that on our licence is there - globally significant oilco- am sure Total would not qualify.
Indeed, from an interest perspective I dare say Exxon may be an interested off taker.

Taverham - as Spunken says Tullow are operators and in control of the info flow. They have sent out a very sparse statement to which Eco has then reacted to say they believe it is still commercial.
Tullow are getting their ass handed to them across their portdolio and when providing a long scheduled update decided to kitchen sink the info on Orinduik as they were going to be slammed by market anyway. Fairly irresponsible to be honest.
Gil is too optimistic that is clear to all but think this is partly to counterbalance the conservatism and glacial pace of progress at Tullow.
For now, we all await Carapa and then news of drill candidates for 2020.

So Apache drops 9.5% as an $8bn company that shows the value the market can attach and we have been nowhere near that yet.
Proselenses as ever you try to make trouble with whatever news you can find. Apache drill is 7miles from the border and looks to me about 70 miles from Stabroek finds which we are not only next to we overlap with. The presence of an oil system on our block is also well proven which improves CoS in remaining drills.
Keep up the bull**** though gives me a laugh when you.post.

Sardypaul
Looks.more like £130k versus £116k and may have been working through buys at the higher price. So it quite as you suggest.

Market seems to overreact happily on the downside and stays conservative on the upside.
With Spirit continuing to carry and useful funds beginning to accrue from the EPS with news to come before the CMD it seems then it should be recovering the losses.
Needs word on a bigger boat and how the plans will be achieved without dilution but with potential to pocket $300m in cash to add to the $100m plus to date then they are sitting fairly comfortably.
Key that EPS keeps performing.