Member Info for in4cedros

Dross - people and companies love Leo's paper - the evidence is in the history, as recent as the last 6 months - what are you like Dross !

Swag - deep gratitude to you for that post about ' Last Minute Leo ' hitting the target on the last day got me thinking about the maths for the average calculation.

The rns mentions late December so I've assumed mid December onwards the average was 1000 bopd - my assumption favours the trolls you'll see why in a minute !

The average for Q4 was 670 bopd so for 75 days the average was 604 bopd assuming last 15 days were 1000 bopd. This means ' new ' production for the last 15 days was 396 bopd ( 417 bopd on peak day ) .

Going forward how much of the 417 bopd will he switch off?

Lots of speculation in my figures as I don't have a breakdown of production sources but I'd say Last Minute Leo is probably quite relaxed now about his production diversity and ability to grow it sustainably but ( for the benefit of Irene ) no guarantees DYOR!!!

Swag - thanks again for changing my perception of those figures!

Swag - Bamps makes an excellent point regarding additional production coming on at the last minute - in that scenario it’s very difficult to influence the QUARTERLY average production figures!

We are also told that final permitting for Snowcap didn’t emerge until December - unsure of the South Erin position.

LK achieved his target and all credit to him for doing it - if he had to cancel all holidays over the festive season and get his wife and kids over to keep the fire going on the steam injection on Bonasse I say well done to him - just think what the trolls would have said in the event of failure! Now the trolls have to go for option 2 - he only just made it/ it was a fluke / it was unfairly forced / whatever !

Reality is target achieved and now we are in Q1 and we have been told that value for money production is more of a priority so we’ll wait and see, presumably he won’t be switching off the newly introduced production without good reason - as I mentioned earlier seems like more new production is likely soon from South Erin.

As you are currently out I understand why you have posted those views and not surprised dross is supportive of them - still plenty of negative arguments out there for trolls to deploy - keep em coming!

Irene - no need for a pant poo - waterflood is a long term project of pressure support. I suspect LK also had the Soldado North field, average 15,000 bopd over 50 years in mind when he talked about opportunities in the SWP in the last media - have you watched it yet Irene - could be big league stuff if that comes off - have to stop now I can feel your FOMO coming on again!

Bamps - I was surprised they were able to progress Snowcap and South Erin to production so quickly - the Goudron sand handling experience will be handy there and the further development imminent development at South Erin might well justify a mid term rns!

All In all looking more and more like a company going about its business in a logical well managed way. Only Fantasy Oil & Gas Manager , currently not invested, is regularly pooing his pants about every last detail and treating any lack of heralding from the rooftops as a sign something is wrong.

Take waterflood for example continually droning on about failure, clearly I would like it to have hit 3000 bopd by now but we all know that on Goudron declines are natural so for me the w/f is a success if it is helping to sustain pressure underground as it reduces the urgency of taking other action on that field to maintain reasonable production levels.LK has suggested that other areas have better potential and we have plenty of those to develop.

I would like to know more detail about the field work in the new areas from which we are currently producing but that's cos I'm just nosey - so much going on there is enough for a one hour media if a rampathon is ever needed!

desertjoe - many thanks for your post - much appreciated.

Noel - I'm not looking to change political opinions merely to create an environment on here where both sides of a polarised debate can chat about AAU and other things that are unlikely to inflame sensibilities.

I've been here a long time and appreciate it may not happen overnight - as I'm not currently invested there's no great urgency.

desertjoe - thanks for your post - you've made your points clearly but you haven't convinced me that such political comment is not polarising.

I cited the USA election result as evidence that plenty of people supported Trump - I chose my words carefully- I didn't say the majority of voters - i believe even you will have to concede that Trump still has millions of supporters, based on the mid-term polls and I'm not aware of any evidence suggesting that anyone supporting Trump is averse to contemplating investment in a gold mine.

desertjoe - I hear what you say about Trump but I've also heard what the other side says and does. Hypothetically if you were politically persuasive what's the point in inculcating an anti Trump mindset in me - I don't vote in USA elections.

You don't know the political persuasion of AAU board posters or potential posters/ investors, you do however know that Trump got enough votes to be elected so it's reasonable to assume not everyone has your mindset - if the situation was reversed and John was gratuitously promoting Trump would you let him get away with it - seemingly not - so this board would be permanently conflicted about a non AAU matter!- what would be the point ?

John - I have been a shareholder in AAU for many years, when I sold I told posters, of my own volition, I was out, but I haven't ruled out the possibility of buying back in the future so I continue to monitor the progress of the company and comment when I choose to do so. I'm open to the idea that more than a few might prefer I didn't post here but plenty have accepted that as trolls go I'm probably more cuddly than some. I understand why some people think this is rather unusual but it's not that different to brokers who cover a sector.

I have posted on this board much longer than you and had plenty of informative exchanges - politics have been tolerated where relevant to the share and latitude given. You might think you can convince posters here that your comments on Trump were share related in some way but in my view most were gratuitous. A similar situation arose on the other board with Dic and he was told the same by more than a few.

There are plenty of more appropriate forums for ranting about Trump for or against although I'm still struggling with your concept of not wanting personal conflict and political posting - unless you stick to motherhood and apple pie!

Posting on share chat boards is not for everyone and I did believe you learnt a lot from that experience about who was paying for the road - misunderstandings about who pays for infrastructure don't seem to be confined to Turkey do they?

I'm not going to change my stance on political comment and I believe the board will be better in the long run without it - if posters want to be a martyr for Trump or Pelosi they should do it elsewhere IMO.
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HIC - may I suggest you google Eric Chalker UK Shareholders Association 2014 custodian issues - seems like Noel is not the only one bothered!

Apologies it's:-

What do you get if you throw a grenade into Napoleon's kitchen? Linloleum Blownapart !

No more jokes from me, today LOL!

LGO-fan - I'm thinking you know Waterloo quite well - your last post about sleeves may, at a stretch, justify a re-run of :- Where did Napoleon keep his armies? - Up his sleevies!

Followed by - Can Napoleon return to his place of birth ? - Of Corsican!

then - What do you get if you throw a grenade into Napoleon's kitchen? - Napoleon Blownapart!

Don't know what came over me - schoolboy humour perhaps?

Noel - I also have to thank the posters who put the message more gently by subtly omitting politics from the list of topics they enjoy on here!

The custodian issue is a big subject, professionals will tell us it is virtually fool proof and the FCA must be happy with the risk but I will be very interested in what you discover.

HH - joking aside I don't believe, from the dross's reply, that alternatives had crossed his mind !

Dross - just because that option wasn't included in Fantasy Oil & Gas Manager doesn't mean it doesn't exist or is not a possible business option - I remember Wells Services taking paper for a drill during the period you've been posting on LGO/CERP!

I'm happy for you to compartmentalise everything if it helps your take of the world but don't expect me to give your naïve schoolboy approach any credence!

Dross - they are CERP shareholders so have an interest in promoting the company ( the opposite of non shareholding trolls) plus they know they'll get paid and an upside option could increase their overall benefit.

Until LK tells us no one knows but he seems very comfortable to have let Lind option expire despite that being , according to you, pretty much his only hope - you need to broaden your outlook even if it doesn't fit your agenda!

Paul - difficult to say until the EOY accounts are published and we see what the annual increment was!

Re custodian issue it's not causing me loss of sleep but it's evident I'm happy to discuss it. So much scamming at the moment no harm in ventilating it. Noel may take it from third to first place !

Paul - but I haven't mentioned director's wages or bonuses once this year - even when suffering extreme provocation from poster ' retired banker ' - he said ' not too greedy ' when referring to the BOD - he must have had me on filter!