Member Info for illusion

Keep the Faith.
GLA.

Good Evening everyone,
we are in turbulent times at the moment,
but we have many reasons to be thankful even if the immediate situation seems depressing.
I would like to point people back to the Jan 10th RNA.
The quote below is of major significance and I will explain why.

"This is a significant oil discovery and the size of the upside at our Wyoming asset was a surprise to us all. Conventional light oil discoveries of this magnitude have been rare in continental North America for years if not decades. We control the majority of this discovery as it is coincident with our large contiguous lease block. We will start exploiting the discovery this year."

There is one word in this paragraph that is of the utmost importance for us all.
That word is “CONVENTIONAL “.
Why ? .
If you research the Powder River Basin you will find many articles about the prospects for the future of the basin,
I have chosen the one below because it also highlights other reasons to be thankful the BLM's attitude towards Converse County especially ,
but it also highlights the point I am trying to shine a light on.
The point is the latest drilling and fracking techniques required to unlock the potential of the
UNCONVENTIONAL plays in the PRB.
These techniques are expensive and time consuming,
but will eventually unlock untold riches in the PRB.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ianpalmer/2021/01/14/feds-approve-plan-to-drill-and-frack-5000-new-oil-wells-in-the-powder-river-basin-of-wyoming/?sh=e24f9906bb65

So why should we be so happy ?.
Well you see ,
once we have a confirmed CPR, ( which unless AM is an idiot ) and I have never thought that,
estimates will be greater for both the Dakota and the Frontier we are sitting on a large discovery, and a very large discovery,
which because of being “CONVENTIONAL”
can be exploited relatively quickly and without the massive expense of others plays in the PRB.
There are so many things in our favour ( even if the crazy market here will not recognise it ).
WTI likely to stay above $80/ Bl ( this was the key price for expansion and exploration when I was still working in the industry ) for the foreseeable future.
The US will want to expand homeland production (as they are still importing 30% of their crude from Russia ) and will probably be encouraging their majors to do it.
We have a large light crude discovery ( on confirmation ),
Am could go it alone ( with potential refinancing from US side ),
I think more likely a large JV to extract as much as possible as quickly as possible to maximise
profit.
Or potentially a complete buy out of the Frontier and Dakota plays.
Either way we cannot lose,
I fully expect the next production update to show we are producing more again this will give a small stimulus to our lagging SP,
but there is much better to come ,
I think in some ways we could not have been luckier,
events are lining up in such a way that we could not have dreamed of even 6 months ago.
Keep

One of your best HFB lol.

Good Morning Tiburn,
BRILLIANT research,
of course i never expect anything but excellence from you,
a very realistic similly,
just highlights the reasons for confidence here.
So many positive pointers for us ,
Sweet light crude,
massive find on land,
safest jurisdiction,
Majors playing all around,
already producing company.
But maybe the most interesting part of this is that ECO spiked on first discovery (with high sulphur content oil )
when the price of oil was significantly lower than today.
Today we we have a spiking oil price ,
the value of sweet light crude is at a premium ( especially with the green effect at the forefront ).
So many reasons to expect that when this companies blows ,
it will not becoming back down.
One day , one day Tiburn.
GLA.

Good evening everyone,
well hear we are again waiting for a reluctant market to subscribe some decent value to our company.
It seems that no matter what AM says nothing will move them,
he gives them a heads up on the discovery ,
nothing happens,
he buys shares on the open market,
nothing happens,
he announces options for his BOD and SWP employees,
nothing happens.
I am sure that by now AM is more than aware that the London market has no love for this company,
it has been toyed with by the market here for the last 12 months ,
used as a cash cow by traders from the minute we came out of suspension,
even before the Cuda situation muddied the waters.
Just look at the trading volumes for COPL compared to other companies of a similar size,
they are like a dog with a bone they will never let it go !!!!.

If you think back ,
AM stayed in London much longer than he needed to ,
probably trying to raise interest in ii's and hnw's,
clearly they were not interested at that time.

Once it started to become clear to him the extent of the discovery no doubt he tried again ,
still no result.
So he went home and weighed up his options.
He added Nigel Little to the board,
a different type of director , experienced in finance of the oil and gas industry,
probably better at talking the talk than AM,
also realising the magnitude of the task to extract maximum value out of the discovery AM himself will have courted other senior oilmen, he has had plenty of dealings with them in the past and he most definitely speaks their language.

If I was AM I might want to show the middle finger to London,
so what does he have to offer.

Think about it ladies and gentlemen,
at a time when WTI is inexorably heading towards and maybe beyond a $ 100 / bl ,
quite a lot.
1.5 to 1.9 billion barrels ( probably on the conservative side ) until a CPR proves otherwise.
So even at 20% recovery ( again conservative @1.5 billion bls ) a minimum of
300 million bls,
in the near term a value of $27 Billion ,
and with the current situation in the world and the US probably wanting to ensure their own supplies, the chances that production supply is going into shortfall do we really think there will be a slump in oil prices over the next few years,
I doubt it.
So what else do we know,
1 short lateral well in the Frontier will cost about $6 million,
we know that we can produce 4 x the Capex before we pay any royalties,or expenses
( $24 million ),
@ a conservative 1000 barrel/day production,
each well would pay for itself in ,
1000 x $90 ( because we will already be exceeding the hedge rate ),
= $ 90,000 / day , = 67 days .So each well is in profit in just 17 DAYS.
Therefore 1 well can make $18 million before netbacks even apply.
10 wells = $180 million clear profit before netbacks apply.
50 wells = $900 million clear profit before netbacks apply.
150 wells = $2.7 BILLION clear profit before netbacks apply.
I am sure this has not escaped AM's thinking.
And this takes no account of future production.
Even at at 50% WI the scope here is massive.

So is it any wonder that AM the BOD and the SWP employees are locked and loaded ,
a JV with one of the Majors in the PRB could achieve this easily and not even stretch there pocketbooks ( colloquially ).
There is no new research involved in these calculations.

So folks if you wanted to maybe put 1 or maybe 2 fingers up to the London market,
this might be the way to do it.

Follow the signposts.

GLA.

Great post Tiburn,
once again AM is giving the hint of things to come,
i am afraid though that there will still be some that cannot see the wood for the trees lol,
why would he not want to incentivise the valuable employees that are going to secure all our futures.
Stop the sour grapes,
those that think this standard company practice is a bad thing,
i wonder how many companies reward there employees in this way ,
not so many i guess.
So follow the sign posts.
GLA

No HFB it was not posted on sedar or cse either ,
Yes Tiburn i just have the feeling that as you say things are coming together " almost like its planned ",
lets hope lol.

https://ceo.ca/api/sedi?symbol=XOP&amount=&transaction=&insider=

Good afternoon HFB,
The link was posted yesterday evening a SEDI link,
AM 5.4mill
RG 2.5 mill an dvarious others,
i am sure some one will put up the link for you. :))

Good Afternoon Everyone,
Do we really think that it is only a coincidence that ,
AM's buying of shares and,
the announcement of BOD share options,
in the same week.
We have always none there is plenty of news in AM's back pocket,
maybe the weight of that news is getting to heavy and is at risk (metaphorically speaking ),
of pulling them down lol.
I think there could be a lot of action going on behind the scenes which may come to a head soon.
I do not think we will be waiting until March for the CPR or Cuda news.
Suddenly actions and news are accelerating and i think we are coming towards the crux of matters to do with our futures.
I rather think he will not want them pulled down by news or anybody else lol.
Just my thoughts .
VGLA.

Well here we go Noob,
I will try and explain it as simply as I can,
it is only an example so no criticism please.
Imagine a huge sealed stone pot filled with sand of different densities some area's in the pot are quite soft and some area's in the pot are harder.
Firstly the quality of the pot is important ,
are there any cracks in it.
If there are and we pump gas into it the gas will leak out of the pot , no use in a miscible flood.
The BFU is the pot in this scenario,
and the good news is,
there doesn't appear to be any cracks in the pot ,
otherwise we would not be having excessive pressure problems at the surface .
So we inject gas and liquid gas into the pot at different points to raise the pressure in the pot ,
the liquid gas acts as a lubricant to help the OIL to flow through the sands more easily as the rising pressure pushes the oil towards the production wells.
The gas is separated from the oil at the surface and re-injected into the pot to keep the pressure up.

The problem SWP have been having is that our 6 best producing wellshave less dense sands around them and have been sending a lot of gas to the surface and our plant could not deal with the excessive pressures.

This was actually good news ,
as I said earlier no cracks in the pot.
But they had to find a way to deal with the excess gas to keep the pressure up and allow the gas to increase production in the other 25 wells.

So that is basically how the miscible flood works.

Now the good news.
After August gas production was falling and likewise oil ( maybe due to pressures maybe to do with Cuda ),
in December the gas production is rising again and likewise production so they must have found a temporary solution lol,
until the new pipeline is constructed.
The best wells are starting to produce at August levels again in the south ,
and also in the northwest where the the other best producing wells are situated.
Even some of the wells around the edges are starting to show improvement.
So I expect the January production to be increasing as well,
Maybe after tomorrow it no longer matters if production is increasing as we have Cuda or somebody else of use to our medium to long term future has decided to join the party.
Good luck Noob, i will look forward to that drink lol,
and GL to us all.

Good morning everyone,
with all RNA'S provided by AM in the past we have had to read between the lines,
but not this time.
"This share purchase shows my confidence in the Company's recently announced deep discovery, and the performance of our miscible flood at our Barron Flats project in Wyoming."
It could not be any clearer,
no ambiguity on this one !.
If this is not the signal to PI'S to load up ,
i do not know what he could say to make it any clearer.
So if you have doubts and are sitting on the fence maybe its time to act .
I believe that as Tiburn put it very well earlier this was a"message from CEO - buy now and do so quickly."
There has been much criticism on here about communication,
some maybe justified ,
and a lot probably not,
we were never as PI'S going to be party to tactics or strategy for the company,
that is is not how it works.
But we have been very fortunate on this board,
there are many good posters searching for information and good analysts scrutinising the numbers.
Not much has been missed here.
So maybe all that great work is about to bear the fruit many of us have expected for a long time.
The road has been bumpy at times ,
but maybe soon we are about to get onto the motorway and we will be able to start cruising,
we all thought there was a good future even before the enormity of the discovery struck,
that good future will increase exponentially once the CPR lands.
So take the hint AM has given you ,
take advantage while the last value remains.
GLA.

back to .59c lol

.63 c Gents

Sorry folks this link also black before,
http://www.drillingedge.com/search?operator_name=chevron&type=operators
GLA

Not sure why the first 2 links came out black so just in case i'll try again
http://www.drillingedge.com/wyoming/operators/chesapeake-operating-llc/1381
http://www.drillingedge.com/wyoming/operators/exxon-mobil-oil-corporation/57
GLA

Good afternoon everyone,
So here we are waiting for a potential game changing CPR, thinking about possible JV'S and BUYOUTS.
Below is some qualified information about neighbouring operators who are active in the PRB.
First up and very active this week within the PRB,
CONTINENTAL:
On the 22nd of Jan 2022 they concluded the buy-out of all of Chesapeake Energy Corporations’ assets in the PRB for $450 million.
Also CEC’s former CEO Doug Lawler has left and will become Chief Operating Officer for Continental as of 01/02/22.
Opinion: they clearly want a large stake in the basin as they already took out Samsons 9000bpd for $215million previously,
http://www.drillingedge.com/wyoming/operators/chesapeake-operating-llc/1381
If you blow up the map you see that the 2 western most tags are on the NE corner of the BFU they clearly may have an interest in the new find. Clearly they want to have a large stake in the PRB and our new discovery once proved could be the ‘Jewel In The Crown’ for them.
Secondly we have,
EXXON:
They declared in their 3rd Quarter results that they have a $6 billion cash on account,
http://www.drillingedge.com/wyoming/operators/exxon-mobil-oil-corporation/57
If you blow this map up you see they once had considerable interests in Cole Creek before us and thus understand the geology of the new find, with Q4's due to be announced and perhaps maybe even bigger cash on account, they may also decide that this is too good an opportunity to be missed.
Thirdly we have,
CHEVRON:
They lost out to a hostile bid for ANDARKO by OCCIDENTAL when they jumped in at the last minute and offered an over inflated $55 billion supported by $10 billion from none other than Mr Warren Buffet.
https://money.usnews.com/investing/stock-market-news/slideshows/stocks-warren-buffett-just-bought?slide=5
Now Mr Buffet may feel he owes Chevron a favour and may help or be interested in increasing Chevron's holdings in the PRB
http://www.drillingedge.com/search?operator_name=chevron&type=operators
As part of Chevrons mantra is to deliver value for shareholders our new discovery may fit that pattern.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidblackmon/2020/07/20/chevrons-patience-pays-off-with-bargain-deal-for-noble-energy/?sh=25eaf0dc794a
So you see my friends the possibilities are endless, but I think whichever way the cards are stacked at some point in the future we will get a HUGE RESULT !!!!!!.

These facts certainly offer up some interesting points for debate, and obviously Arthur and COPL will be well aware of these which may or may not impact on the amount of communication Arthur has with his shareholders!

GLA.

Good Morning Tiburn,
I am sure you are right ,
AM knowing the always leuk warm reception COPL news is received by the market over here would not have risked an estimate unless he had a heads up from the CP.
I think we can deduce 2 things,
firstly that the CPR is at an advanced stage,
secondly that the arising reserves will be at least as good as already annouced.
I am sorry if i upset people this morning ,
the Ukraine situation definetely affected the markets yesterday but also showed their limitaions for this stock,
this companies activities are USA based,
we should have been protected from the fall ,
the perfect stock to be in ,
US looking for protected oil supplies,
safest jurisdiction on the planet.
The sooner we can break the dominance of London on this stock the better,
i hope that one of the stipulations of a major US JV will be a NASDAQ or NYSE listing,
hopefully once the CPR is released we can swiftly move past the £70 m/$100 MC,
this would remove the biggest hurdle to a US listing.
We will all on here be better off,
look at Canada trying to lead the way since consolidation only to be dragged back by the game playing in London due to lack of volume.
US is the natural home for this stock,
London would have to follow the US lead.
We would all be wealthier because of it .
GLA.

Thanks Shaa,
i know your passion for our company inspires many through all the games and ups and downs ,
i also knw that many of the bretheren appreciate your hot fingers on the daily's,
i look forward to the days that must surely come when,
i can sit back and watch your posts fly us to the moon !!!!.