We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
Good Morning Everyone,
Jointhedots BRAVO,
a great post !!!!!.
I implore friends of the share to heed the signs ,
if you interact or respond to the negative it only breeds negativity,
we have come to the point now of REAL DANGER.
When you feel the need to respond it only gives the impression that you are concerned about your own judgement.
PI'S looking in from outside are then spooked into selling and playing into the hands of people with a negative agenda.
I urge my own friends and other s to stop the interaction .
I we post amongst ourselves and NEVER respond or EVEN ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THEY ARE HERE,
outsiders can at least way up for themselves the merits of the 2 sides ,
if things carry on as they are it will only hurt the company even more and the share could be destroyed just as the company can finally move forward.
If we INTERACT WE ONLY HELP TO FEED THE NEGATIVITY .
I myself was going to post over the weekend with some positive comparisons i had found then i realised that i would only add grist to the mill of NEGATIVITY.
So i have taken a decision not to post again while the INTERACTION continues as anything i post will only be used by others to sow more doubt.
GLA.
Good Afternoon Everyone,
So now we have another piece of the jigsaw in place .
“Confirms the Wyoming deep discovery has total Original Oil in Place of 993.5 million barrels .”
“Outlines 118 horizontal well locations to exploit the identified Frontier 2 and Dakota Reserves and Resources”
“The total area evaluated in the Report encompasses 21,360 acres of Company operated lands having P1 and P2 Reserves, and 1C, 2C, 3C Contingent Resources.”
Therefore considering under half our acreage has been evaluated on further delineation outside of this area further OOIP may be expected in time.
Basically we will end up with at least as much or maybe more than AM originally stated in the Jan RNA.
People can argue ( and most surely will ) the merits of this report financially to the company.
The bottom line is
the future for COPL is VERY BRIGHT INDEED.
So why are we not making any headway on SP ?
IMHO ,
we need to final pieces of the jigsaw to fall into place to get the upwards movement we all crave..
The RBL of course giving us sound finances and getting us away from the limitations and expense of the senior lender.
The other is to get production on the BFU rising and thus into profit.
Remember because of the effect of the Cuda affair financially and otherwise,
AM for the last year has been
( sliding down a financial 40 foot razor blade with his B@lls for brakes ).
The good news is that is nearly at the end of the Razor blade and his B@lls are still intact.
II's and funds will not take a chance here until we are
In Profit,
And have sound Finances,
( but I am sure they are watching ).
Finally to the markets,
firstly may I recommend a very short post by Ourjambo 1985 10:37 friday,
Lets look at a few facts.
We have a market cap of 43 million a small cap.
We have 9 MM's quoting our stock WHY?
We have more trades each day than companies 10 – 20 x our size WHY?
We have one of the most used and ( now aggressive ) bulletin boards on LSE WHY ?
Could it be that a lot of people are milking the CASH COW and will no stop until they have to.
Draw your own conclusions.
GLA
Good Morning Everyone ,
just a quick one for now,
From the bond agreement.
" The Company has also agreed to a moratorium on equity issuances for 90 days from the Issue Date, whilst the Company works to conclude its objective of senior debt refinancing and, not to issue further convertible securities whilst the Bonds are outstanding.
The bond issuers asked for this to be included precisely to avoid any talk of warrants being used as an explanation for affecting the SP.
They cannot forward sell,
they do not even own them yet.
This is in a official RNA thus legally binding.
GLA
Good Morning Everyone,
I concur Tiburn,
I have always believed that the mistakes made and the lessons learned by Art during the Oilexco experience
will be positive for us .
He has by chance been given ( with a result of the discovery ) a last chance to expunge the errors from the past once and for all.
And remember if he gets the RBL + revolver to take this project it also means that the Banks are not holding the past against him.
Therefore we can hope that the positive side s of AM 's experience and drive to succeed will be given a free reign whilst the financing side will make sure that the checks and balances are in place to keep it under control.
Win Win for us in the future.
Whilst i acknowledge peoples right to be nervous and cautious,
i also think it should not be a crime to show the positive side of the discussion .
GLA.
Good Afternoon Everyone,
well that was another interesting week.
We finally acquire Cuda ,
But the markets do not like the new status of the company.
From the RNA ,
“Provides significant leverage to COPL increasing the Company's NPV10 (47% working interest adjusted) by US$122 million from US$258 million (COPL December 31, 2021 NI-51-101 Reserves) to US$380 million.”,
“Increases COPL's 2P reserves by 47% from 25.8 million (COPL December 31, 2021 NI-51-101 Reserves) to 38.2 million barrels”
From the the Q2 Results,
“COPL's operating netback was $48.53/bbl., before the net realized gain or loss on crude oil and butane hedge contracts as compared to $41.21/bbl. in Q421.”
So they were clearly not impressed with the increase in potential netbacks of $601.77m on top of the $1.2 Bn potential netbacks we already held for the BFU & Cole Creek before the net realized gain or loss on crude oil and butane hedge contracts . ( Or maybe my Calculator is not working again )
They were similarly not impressed with,
“Earlier this year, COPL commissioned Ryder Scott to conduct a Canadian NI 51-101 compliant resource assessment of the major discovery the Company announced to the market in January 2022 its assessment of an estimated total reservoir volume of 1.5-1.9 billion barrels of Oil in Place ("OIP"), of which 1.2-1.6 billion barrels of OIP underlays COPL lands. The Company expects Ryder Scott to confirm these findings when it publishes the report next week.” also from the RNA.
So we can conclude that the markets are not at all interested in or impressed by potential or asset values.
Fortunately though,
we are are shortly to move from the red and into the black as far as earnings are concerned,
the now unhedged increased WI and AM's hands being untied as regards to fixes and upgrades for the BFU will see to that .
Once production starts to increase and profitability emerges ,
all of the above will be seen in a very different light.
Oh did I forget to mention that a RBL ,
and a successful start to the delineation process will make the hopefully by then profitable BFU and CC,
pale into insignificance.
Come on Arty ,
take the gloves off and show us what your really about.
By the way,
I would like the RS report to be put on the website after close of play here on Friday with the news report / interview released at the same time.
Giving time at the weekend for reflection ( or for some sweaty palms lol ).
GLA
Good Evening Everyone,
Well here we are again ,
frustrated and confused ,
wondering if our judgements have been correct.
Still we seem to be unable to make the progress we think that we should .
We buy Atomic for $54 m seemed like a good deal,
but the markets say NO.
We buy Cuda for $21.5 m still the markets say NO.
Next week we will probably have the RS report ,
“COPL currently estimates the total reservoir volume of the discovery to be 1.5 billion to 1.9 billion Bbl. of Oil in Place ("OIP"), of which 1.275 billion to 1.64 billion Bbl. of OIP underlays COPL lands “,
and probably the market will say ??????????.
https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/projects/pikka-nanushuk-development-north-slope-alaska/#
I urge everyone who are lth 's here and also recent additions to our number to study this link
closely !!.
Note especially the timelines from discovery to production ,
the similarities in the recoverable OIP, we discovered the Frontier 08/21 and hopefully start delineating 10/22!.
Also note the 49% holder who as anyone who has an affection for as I do ( Espana ),
Repsol.
Now go back and study STAS 20 's 12: 28 post.
Now it could be said that AM ( or the people around him) are not the best at shining the best light on an RNA message, I am afraid this is fair comment .
But Art has 2 clear talents which are indisputable.
Getting a good deal !
And getting oil out of the ground FAST.
Now that he has completed the first,
with a a good RBL he will be able to achieve the second.
Now is definitely the time to lose faith,
it has been a very rocky road since we acquired Atomic ( mostly due to circumstances beyond AM's control ).
But now he has his hands on all the levers .
IMHO things will be very different going forward.
GLA.
Good Evening Everyone,
Great post Tiburn we must have been composing at the same time lol.
This quote is from today's RNA of the acquisition,
“The Cuda acquisition has a highly attractive valuation of c. 81% of the working interest adjusted Atomic Oil and Gas LLC acquisition announced last year”.
This quote is from the Investor Presentation,
“COPL has signed a Purchase and Sale Agreement to acquire the
assets of Cuda for cash and credit at an implied value of 90% of the
working interest adjusted (47%) Atomic acquisition cost of $54M “.
So although the 9% reduction only reflects the extra paid billings it means that AM stuck to his guns right to the end giving nothing away.
Lets clear something up straight away.
“The Company has also agreed to a moratorium on equity issuances for 90 days from the Issue Date, whilst the Company works to conclude its objective of senior debt refinancing and, not tother issue further convertible securities whilst the Bonds are outstanding.”
Warrants are equity and will cost the bond holders £9.2 million,
but what ever was happening in the markets was nothing to do with the warrants,
they cannot even use the facility for a minimum of 90 days at their own request.
I think they asked for this deliberately so there could be absolutely no doubt that any price action was nothing to do with them.
Now finally the shackles are of ,
and whilst the markets will react in their own way ,
AM can now concentrate on getting the best out of what we have and also to prepare for the delineation program to come.
Once the company breaks into profit and production increases and the coming RR and RBL arrive and the delineation process starts to bear fruit,
stickier hands will come in and any games will stop.
With a NPV of $380m and profit making production nothing will be able to stop the value of our company rising .
NOTHING .
GLA.
Good Afternoon Everyone.
I must confess that now that everyone has had time to digest friday's RNA some people are griping over the terms,
when we should be seeing the positive state this has left the company in.
I say a big BRAVO to the shareholder,
he has stepped in and given us every chance to progress in every area of the companies objectives in the easiest terms possible .
As said by Tiburn and others earlier.
The bond is not asset based !,
Therefore on signing ,
the full NPV for CUDA is added to our assets unencumbered,( $121m ) meaning no debt is attached to it as far as the future RBL is concerned.
As I understand it the $5.3 m part of the bonds is the rolling interest monthly over the full term of the bonds ,
so if these bonds are included in a future RBL we would only be paying back the $19.7 m + the monthly interest accrued when the RBL is completed.
The shareholder clearly thinks this may happen within the next 90 days ,
why else would the 90 day moratorium on equity be imposed.
The tap facility allows us to draw cash to carry on progressing the fixes for the BFU and possibly the delineation drills if the RBL is not completed in time.
If this is not regarded as a generous package I do not know what is .
Ah but what about the warrants I here you cry.
This shareholder is along for the long ride and although it will cost him circa £9 million to redeem them,
he sees the bigger picture here ,
a “ BIG NUMBER “ RS report on the way,
I do not think he will not be looking to redeem them to make a few pennies profit,
he will be waiting for a lot more than that and good luck to him.
IMHO this is how we should see this also ,we have always been constrained with crippling credit a bankrupt partner consuming any spare cash we had to move forward.
This has now all been removed to allow the best RBL possible to be negotiated.
Another by product of this deal , this is a London based shareholder he has shone a massive greenlight on COPL as very much a going concern. May other II's look on us a in a more positive light now .
The next few days could be very interesting.
GLA.
Good Morning Everyone ,
Yes great points Daniel,
it is a great deal on many levels,
firstly i feel sorry for those that lost their shares yesterday ( a classic trap ),
but consider these points,
1) The large shareholder offered help knowing that we were in a bind ,
the current loan remember will still sweep the bank acc until the RBL is completed so ( AM'S hand were largely tied behind is back as far as upgrades and fixes were concerned ),
now with the tap facility has relieved this problem allowing the company to progress what we already have as well as relieving short term pressure on starting the de-lineation to prove what we think we have.
2). Now that the Cuda deal is finished time pressure on the RBL is also relieved so the company can secure the best deal possible because there is no short term leverage for the banks.
3). The Large shareholder is probably fully aware of the contents of the RS report and is fully aware of the potential of his investment here.
So we should be confident that if one of our major shareholders is this confident we can take heart that our judgements on the potential here all along was CORRECT.
No finance comes for nothing so imho the fredom this deal allows is pretty incredible in the current climate and at this stage of the companies development.
The events of yesterday were unfortunate but predictable,
i think that AM must always assume that a lot of shareholders here will react with the hurd RNA'S like this one will always require instant clarification ( the dummies version )otherwise it will keep happening.
The MM's understand very well the overiding sentiments of this share and took full advantage,
once again i say i feel sorry for those that lost yesterday .
But for the rest of us i think that the freedom this deal has given AM will be very good for us over time.
By the way the ii app chart also showed the 22p trade just before the close ( curious ).
GLA.
Good Evening Everyone,
Great post Tiburn highlighting where we are going.
Just to provide a little context the links below are for the 2 best producing wells in Converse County for April.
http://www.drillingedge.com/wyoming/converse-county/wells/harley-fed-3671-35-26-1-th/49-009-31972
http://www.drillingedge.com/wyoming/converse-county/wells/lucy-fed-3671-35-26-3-th/49-009-31915
They are both in sector 36N 71W,
our acreage are in 35N 76 & 77W not a great distance away.
They produced in April ,
2307 bopd,
2151 bopd respectively,
it does not take the brain of britain to see that these 2 wells are producing are producing more than our last recorded daily production each.
Is it any wonder that AM want to de-lineate and produce from our Frontier discovey first.
Hopefully the RBL he has negotiated will allow him to do this,
i agree with you Tiburn once the drilling starts everything will move forward very quickly.
On a personal note ,
Tiburn did you ever receive the contact i tried to make with you through MK ?,
if you did it does not matter but if you didn't i would like to pursue it if you would also.
GLA.